Archive
Latest Roy Morgan Poll – the game has turned!
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Don’t let anyone tell you that the Left is headed for defeat on 20 September.
Don’t let the polls tell you that the election is done-and-dusted and Key will be settling in for a third term.
Don’t let Labour’s right-wing MPs’ shenanigans demoralise you.
Don’t let media smear campaigns and various Tory dirty tricks shake your faith.
The election campaign has only just begun, and the most recent poll – from Roy Morgan – will be giving Key, Joyce, Brownlee, English, Collins, Bennett, etc, sleepless nights from now on.
The Roy Morgan poll, carried out at the end of July, paints a grim picture for the Nats;
National: 46% (down 5%)
Labour: 30% (up 6.5%)
Greens: 12% (down 3%)
NZ First: 5% (down 1%)
Internet-Mana Party Alliance: 2.5% (up 1%)
Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)
ACT: 0.5% (unchanged)
United Future: 0.5% (unchanged).
Conservative Part: 1% (unchanged)
National’s 46 percentage rating is a massive drop from the low-to-mid 50s it has been enjoying in polls up until now. Even the previous Roy Morgan poll (which is the main poll to consider as it is the only one that calls cellphones) had National on 51%.
Make no mistake about the significance on this fall; National is now polling below it’s election night result of 47.31%!
Why is this significant and ultimately so terrifying for this government?
Because if you glance to the chart below, you will see polling results for the month of October, preceding the 2011 General Election, which had National rating between 53.5% to 57.4%.
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| National | Labour | Greens | NZ First | |
| One News Colmar Brunton [1]2 October 2011 | 56% | 29% | 9% | 1.9% |
| 3 News Reid Research [1]2 October 2011 | 57.4% | 26.6% | 9.8% | 1.9% |
| Roy Morgan Research [1]26 September – 9 October 2011 | 55.5% | 28% | 9.5% | 2% |
| Roy Morgan Research [1]10–23 October 2011 | 53.5% | 29.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% |
| Herald-DigiPoll [1]20–27 October 2011 | 53.5% | 30.3% | 9.5% | 2.85 |
| Actual Election Night Result [2]26 November 2011 | 47.31% | 27.48% | 11.06% | 6.59% |
| Fairfax/Ipsos Poll [6]17 July 2014 | 54.8% | 24.9% | 12.4% | 2.6% |
| Herald-DigiPoll [5]20 July 2014 | 52% | 26.5% | 9.9% | 4.6% |
| One News Colmar Brunton [4]27 July 2014 | 52% | 28% | 10% | 4% |
| Roy Morgan [3]31 July | 46% | 30% | 12% | 5% |
| Election Night: Frank’s Prediction20 September 2014 | 44% | 33% | 13% | 5% |
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Yet, less than two months later, their actual election night result was far less – 47.31%.
Polling results are only approximate indicators. They are never accurate for the following reasons;
- They do not take into account the Undecideds/Won’t Say respondents.
- Undecideds become Decideds, as they firm up their decisions.
- People change their minds.
If National is polling mid-to-high 40s at this point in the campaign, their election night result will be even lower. My guess is around, or below, the 45% mark.
My prediction for this year’s election night results:
National: 44% – 53 seats
Labour: 33% – 40 seats
Greens: 13% – 16 seats
NZ First: 5% – 6 seats
Mana Movement: 4 seats
Maori Party: 1 seat
ACT: 1 seat
Dunne: nil – seat loss
NZ First will try to be the “kingmaker” and my prediction is that he will coalesce with National. The Maori Party will coalesce with Labour, giving a Labour-led coalition a one seat majority.
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References
Roy Morgan: National (51%) increases election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (38.5%)
Wikipedia: Election Night results: 2011
[1] Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2011
[2] Election Night results: 2011
[3] Roy Morgan: National (46%) lead over Labour/ Greens (42%)
[4] One News Colmar Brunton: More poll woes for Labour as National rides high
[5] NZ Herald: National and John Key more favoured than ever for next government
[6] Fairfax/Ipsos Poll: Labour’s poll woe deepens
Other blogposts
The Daily Blog: Latest Roy Morgan Poll: Labour jumps 6.5 points up to 30%, National tumble
The Standard: Latest Roy Morgan poll
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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes
This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 3 August 2014
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TV3 News on Polling Cellphone Users – Only A Year Late
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Over a year ago, in March 2013, I raised the issue of cellphone users not being polled by the major polling companies, with the exception of Roy Morgan. To polling companies such as Reid Research, UMR, Ipsos, Colmar Brunton, Digipoll, etc, people who rely solely on cellphones are “invisible” when it comes to surveying.
As I wrote on 8 March last year,
“If the numbers of households without a landline are significant (+/- 10%), then polling companies will either have to adjust their polling techniques – or be rendered useless. Without factoring in cellphone-only households, polling companies risk becoming an expensive ‘parlour game’ with little value.”
The importance of this fact was highlighted in last year’s Census, which reported on 3 December 2013 that 14.5% of households did not have access to a landline,
“Access to a landline telephone decreased. In 2013, 85.5 percent of households had access to a landline telephone at home, down from 91.6 percent in 2006.”
I then wrote on 12 December,
“Low income families may not necessarily have credit on their cellphones – but that does not prevent polling companies from phoning in, to cellphone owners. As I blogged on 1 September, when Roy Morgan phoned me on my cellphone (see: Mr Morgan phoned).
The up-shot of this census result is twofold;
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As the only pollster to call respondants’ cellphones, Roy Morgan is the most credible polling company and the one to watch.
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Expect other polling companies to follow suit and call respondants via their cellphones – or risk being ignored and becoming irrelevant.”
It was therefore amusing to see this TV3 “news” story on 6 July
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As the story stated;
The rise of the mobile phone is casting a shadow over the reliability of traditional telephone polling…
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In fact, he says it is not just young people who are rejecting landlines. The latest census data shows 86 percent of households have a landline, down from 92 percent in 2006.
And only eight months since I pointed out that the increasing sole-reliance on cellphones in many households made land-line-calling, as a sole means of contacting respondents, somewhat dubious.
Interestingly, TV3 journo, Emma Jolliff – who penned the story – wrote,
“…because there is no directory of mobile phone numbers those people are essentially off the grid to pollsters.”
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References
Stats NZ: Release Calendar
Stats NZ: 2013 Census QuickStats about national highlights – Phone and Internet access
TV3: Cellphones make political polling tricky
Roy Morgan: National (48%) down but still holds clear election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (40%)
Previous related blogposts
Dodgy polls, dodgy dealings, and a spot of fear-mongering
Census, Surveys, and Cellphones
Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua)
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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes
This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 8 July 2014.
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Labour’s collapse in the polls – why?
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In recent months, successive polls have not favoured the Labour Party and the Left Bloc.
A TV3 Reid Research Poll in mid/late May gave a shock result for Labour;
National: 50.3% (+ 4.4%)
Labour: 29.5% (- 1.7%)
Greens: 10.2% (- 1%)
NZ First: 5.6% (+ 0.7%)
A Roy Morgan poll in late May/early June – one of the more accurate of polls – fared no better;
National: 52.5% (+ 7%)
Labour: 29% (- 1.5%)
Greens: 9% (- 4.5%)
NZ First: 4.5% (- 1.5%)
A mid-June Herald Digipoll presented similar results;
National: 50.4% (- 0.4%)
Labour: 30.5% (+ 1%)
Greens: 10.7% (- 2.4%)
NZ First: 3.6% (n/c)
The most recent stats, from a June Fairfax/Ipsos poll, was even worse;
National: 56.5 (+ 8.9%)
Labour: 23.2% (-6.3%)
Greens: 11.9% (- 0.8%)
NZ First: 3.2% (- 0.5%)
Though National’s 56.5% is in pure la-la land (they scored only 47.31% in the 2011 General Election), the overall pattern seems fairly clear; National is rising, whilst the Labour-Green bloc is falling, and – on face value – close to collapse. (I also do not believe that NZ First will not cross the 5% threshold.)
I put National’s rise and the Left’s fall down to three significant factors;
1. National’s May 15 Budget which took a lurch to the left with extra social spending; removing tariffs (temporarily) on building materials; and the promise of a budget ‘surplus‘.
It was a typical electioneering budget, increasing spending on social areas that had been been previously starved of funding in recent years. Even the so-called “surplus” was questioned by the Opposition.
2. Increasing economic activity, predicated mainly on three factors;
- Auckland’s housing bubble/boom
- The Christchurch re-build
- Growing demand for dairy products and raw material exports from our trading partners
3. Infighting between Labour and it’s potential coalition partners.
On 7 June, I blogged on the issue of Labour’s unprovoked and negative attacks on it’s potential allies. I wrote;
Going by recent public comments made by Labour MPs and candidates, it seems that the Labour Party is either planning to sit this election out – or some of it’s higher-ranking public individuals are out of control.
How else to explain recent statements made in the mainstream and social media by Labour people, attacking others on the Left?
[…]Being “principled” and attacking potential allies will result in looking weak and fractured, in the eyes of the public.
Being “principled” and attacking potential allies smacks of dis-unity. Dis-unity, in the eyes of the public, is not a Government-in-waiting. It is Labour unable to set aside self-interest and party-politics for the good of the nation.
If the public perceive that Labour is more interested in attacking it’s own potential allies – and here is the nub of the problem – then why should people vote for such a fractious party that appears unable to work alongside said potential allies?
National – polling in high 40s and low 50s – cultivates potential allies.
Labour – polling in high 20s and low 30s – undermines, attacks, and marginalises it’s own potential allies.
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How many times have we heard the public say, “why can’t they work together for the good of the country?”.
Well, National’s strategists have understood and implemented this very simple truism; the public do not like seeing squabbling politicians. The public want political parties to work together, collegially to solve pressing problems.
That is why Key keeps repeating his mantra,
“We’ve shown we can deliver strong and stable government and can work with other parties for the good of the country blah blah blah..”
That is why National is high up in the polls.
That is why Labour is floundering and losing support. And respect.
Not only do I not resile from the above comments I wrote on 7 June, but I reassert that recent polling has more than proven my point.
We on the Left can do very little about National’s fudging of Budget figures, nor economic growth created by demands from an earthquake-ravaged city; a housing bubble; and Chinese consumption.
We can, however, get our own house in order when it comes to inter-party relationships.
If Labour wants to portray itself as a credible government-in-waiting, it must demonstrate that it is capable of working across all sectors in society.
If they cannot work collegially with other Left-leaning parties – then why on Earth should the public believe that Labour could work with other sector-groups? The ‘signals’ that various Labour MPs (Hipkins, Nash, Goff, Shane Jones, Davis, et al) are sending is one of fractious in-fighting; of “greedy little little children grabbing all the toys in the cot, and not prepared to share and play together”.
This is not a political party demonstrating readiness to be a government. It is a party showing desperation to grab votes at any expense.
Unless Labour is looking forward to sitting on the Opposition benches for the next ten years, it must change it’s internal culture. We talk about the “Police culture” needing change – I submit that Labour itself needs to look deep within itself and understand why the public are not responding to their policies and messages.
Why is the public turned off from Labour?
How does the public view Labour’s bitter attacks on the Greens and Mana-Internet?
What does the public want?
Ask those three questions at the next focus groups, Ms Coatsworth, and you may start to understand why it is that Labour is not connecting with voters.
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References
TV3 Reid Research: 3 News Reid Research Poll
Roy Morgan: National (52.5%) surges to election winning lead while Labour/ Greens (38%) slump to lowest
NZ Herald: National flies high as new party nibbles into Greens
Fairfax media: Ipsos June 2014 Poll – The Party Vote
Wikipedia: New Zealand general election, 2011
NZ Herald: Budget 2014 – Bigger surplus unveiled, doctor visits for kids
Interest.co.nz: Government to temporarily remove duties and tariffs on building materials
Dominion Post: Wellington rape centre forced to cut hours
Fairfax media: Rape crisis line forced to cut staff
Fairfax media: Budget 2014: Surplus real, says English
NBR: Auckland house prices continue their relentless rise
NZ Herald: Big resurgence in NZ house-building
Stats NZ: Dairy product exports grow for 20 years
Stats NZ: Logs to China drive our forestry export growth
Daily Blog: The secret of National’s success – revealed
Previous related blogposts
Letter to the Editor: playing politics with rape victims, National-style
Budget 2014 – How has National exposed itself in Election Year?
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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes
This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 19 June 2014.
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Radio NZ: Politics with Matthew Hooton and Mike Williams – 27 May 2014
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– Politics on Nine To Noon –
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– Monday 27 May 2014 –
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– Kathryn Ryan, with Matthew Hooton & Mike Williams –
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Today on Politics on Nine To Noon,
Our political commentators speak about the recent boost in National’s polling, the strengthening New Zealand economy, and the upcoming elections.
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Click to Listen: Politics with Matthew Hooton and Mike Williams (21′ 30″ )
- Budget 2014, Family Package
- Polls
- Election 2014, voting, Labour-Green Bloc, “Missing Million” voters
- David Shearer
- Environment, rivers, genetic engineering, nitrate pollution, Ruataniwha Dam
- Resource Management Act reforms, Amy Adams, Peter Dunne
- Mana Party, Internet Party
- Green Party list
- Winston Peters, Parliament
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Radio NZ: Nine To Noon – Election year interviews – David Cunliffe
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– Radio NZ, Nine To Noon –
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– Wednesday 25 February 2014 –
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– Kathryn Ryan –
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On Nine To Noon, Kathyrn Ryan interviewed Labour’s leader, David Cunliffe, and asked him about coalition negotiations, policies, polls, and other issues…
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Click to Listen: Election year interviews (27′ 50″ )
A major policy statement by David Cunliffe;
@ 22.00: “We will create incentives for private employers to be certified living wage employers, who pay the living wage to all their employees, by giving them a preference in Crown contracts.”
This will not only support firms that pay their staff properly – but will de facto give preference to local businesses to supply goods and services!
If this doesn’t motivate Small-Medium Enterprises to switch their allegiances from the Nats to Labour, I don’t know what will!
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Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua)
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In March this year I wrote on the issue of political polling and cellphone/landline usage. Specifically,
“Part of the problem [of inaccurate poll results] are anecdotal stories that many low income families, students, transients, etc, no longer rely on landlines and use only cellphones. Polling companies do not call cellphones – only landlines. (A low-income family living not far from us fits this demographic group perfectly; no landline; cellphones only. The sole-parent head of the household votes Labour.)”
This year, Statistics NZ included a question pertinent to this issue. They asked households to disclose their landline, cellphone, fax, and internet usage.
This was Question 17,
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I stated then,
“The question asks the respondent to “mark as many spaces as you need to show which of these are available here in this dwelling”.
What will prove interesting is not whether or not “a cellphone/mobile” is marked – but how many households will mark “a telephone”.
This will finally give us a clearer understanding what percentage of households do not have a landline.”
Yesterday (3 December 2013), Statistics NZ released the result of that question. The impact on political polling firms and their methodologies will no doubt be considerable;
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Three-quarters of households now have Internet access
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Internet access at home continued to rise, at 76.8 percent in 2013, compared with 60.5 percent in 2006 and 37.4 percent in 2001.
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Cellphone access also increased, with 83.7 percent of households in 2013 having access to a cellphone at home, compared with 74.2 percent in 2006.
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Access to a landline telephone decreased. In 2013, 85.5 percent of households had access to a landline telephone at home, down from 91.6 percent in 2006.
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Fax access decreased. In 2013, 14.6 percent of households had access to a fax, down from 26.0 percent in 2006.
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A small percentage of households (1.6 percent or 24,135 households) did not have access to any telecommunication systems at home. That is, they did not have a landline telephone, cellphone, Internet access, or a fax.
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Note that only “85.5% of households had access to a landline telephone at home, down from 91.6% in 2006”.
This means that 14.5% of households did not have access to a landline.
Subtract 1.6 percentage points from 14.5 percentage points as not having access to any telecommunication systems at home at all – and the implication is that 12.9% of households rely on some medium of communications other than landlines: ie, cellphones.
In my March blogpost, I predicted,
“If the numbers of households without a landline are significant (+/- 10%), then polling companies will either have to adjust their polling techniques – or be rendered useless. Without factoring in cellphone-only households, polling companies risk becoming an expensive ‘parlour game’ with little value.”
12.9% is a pretty fair indication of households that cannot afford (or have no need) of landlines, and rely solely on cellphones for communications.
Low income families may not necessarily have credit on their cellphones – but that does not prevent polling companies from phoning in, to cellphone owners. As I blogged on 1 September, when Roy Morgan phoned me on my cellphone (see: Mr Morgan phoned).
The up-shot of this census result is twofold;
- As the only pollster to call respondants’ cellphones, Roy Morgan is the most credible polling company and the one to watch.
- Expect other polling companies to follow suit and call respondants via their cellphones – or risk being ignored and becoming irrelevant.
Meanwhile…
The latest Roy Morgan poll (11-24 November 2013) had the following results;
National-led bloc,
National – 44.5%
Maori Party*** – 1.5%
ACT* – 0.5%
United Future*** – 0.5%
Total National-led Bloc – 47%
Labour-led bloc,
Labour – 34%
Greens – 11%
Mana*** – 1%
Total Labour-led bloc – 46%
Wild cards,
Conservative Party** – 2%
NZ First – 3.5%
* ACT – not expected to survive the 2014 election.
** Conservative Party – not currently represented in Parliament
*** Electorate-based Party only
With the survival of electorate-based ACT and the Maori Party in question, and Colin Craig’s fun-loving religious Party needing active support from the Nats to win an electorate seat to gain seat(s) in Parliament, the 47% figure for the National bloc is misleadingly high.
Parties to watch in the run-up to the next election: NZ First and the Conservative Party.
This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 5 December 2013.
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Sources
Stats NZ: Release Calendar
Stats NZ: 2013 Census QuickStats about national highlights – Phone and Internet access
Previous related blogposts
Census, Surveys, and Cellphones
Dodgy polls, dodgy dealings, and a spot of fear-mongering
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Radio NZ: Politics with Matthew Hooton and Mike Williams
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– Politics on Nine To Noon –
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– Monday 5 August 2013 –
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– Kathryn Ryan, with Matthew Hooton & Mike Williams –
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Today on Politics on Nine To Noon,
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Click to Listen: Politics with Matthew Hooton and Mike Williams (27′ 40″ )
- Discuss the current Fonterra food safety scare;
- the continuing scandal surrounding the GCSB emails;
- Labour’s affordable housing policy,
- and recent positive poll results.
Acknowledgement: Radio NZ
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Poll shows gain for National’s ‘dog whistle’ politics
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Continued from: Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government
The latest Roy Morgan Poll (27 August – 9 September)showed a predictable rise in support the National Party at 46.5% (up 2% since August 13-26, 2012),
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Roy Morgan Poll 9 September 2012 – Trending
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See: National (46.5%) increases strong lead over Labour (31%)
Translated into seats,
National – 46.5% – 56 seats
Labour – 31% – 38 seats
Greens – 12.5% – 15 seats
NZ First – 4.5% (likely to increase to 5% in 2014)– 6 seats
Maori Party – assuming – 2 seats retained (possible) (3 seats, unlikely)
Mana Party – 2 seats (possible)
Peter Dunne – assuming 1 seat retained (possible)
ACT – 0.5% – assuming Epsom lost – no seats (probable)
Labour, the Greens, and NZ First dropped minutely, and ACT is heading for Zero Percent territory.
Seen in a Left-Right bloc context;
Labour-Greens-NZF-Mana: 61 seats
National-Peter Dunne-Maori Party: 59 seats
The figures are not at all surprising. This blogger predicted that National will experience a “bounce” in the polls as it engages in dog-whistle politics.
Bashing the unemployed, solo-mums (but never solo-dads) and other welfare beneficiaries and “standing up to greedy Mow-ries” is always a vote winner with low-information voters.
Don Brash’s “Orewa Speech” in January 2004 was racist dog-whistle politics that pandered to the lowest common denominator in New Zealand politics.
See: “NATIONHOOD – Don Brash Speech Orewa Rotary Club”
It also gave National a temporary boost in public opinion polls, rising 17% in a subsequent TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll.
See: At least Louis Crimp is honest
17% increase in public support – a sad “reward” for a racist speech that pandered to our most base instincts.
The SOE water rights issue and bene-bashing is a predictable strategy for any right wing Party to employ, to boost public poll support. At the moment, National has very little else to rely on – the news from the economy is all bad.
National may stop at abolishing the Treaty of Waitangi and “nationalising water and air”, and may think twice before demanding that all welfare recipients sew black triangles onto their clothing – but I’m sure several of them have fantasised over the prospect.
This blogger predicts that National may indeed rise another percentage point or two – but like the aftermath of the 2004 Orewa Speech, the Nats will fall back as peoples’ irrational racist fears subside and poor economic indicators and poverty continue to dominate headlines.
We are still on course for a change of government in 2014, if not earlier.
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Previous blogposts
Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government!
National ramps up attack on unemployed and solo-mums
National in trouble? Time to dog-whistle the Middle Class!
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National – The End is Nigh (Part #Toru)
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The latest polls are out – and as this blogger has been predicting, National is in free-fall,
National – 45.8% (down 4)
Labour – 33.2% (up 3.8)
Greens – 14.4% (up 0.3
NZ First – 2.8% (up 0.5)
ACT -0.5% (up 0.3)
Maori Party – 1.4% (down 0.2)
Mana – 1% (N/C)
United Future – 0% (N/C)
Conservative party – 1.1% (N/C)
See: Poll – Labour could form Government
This rotten government will be out of office shortly. Banks will lose Epsom and Peter Dunne’s hair will suffer a structural collapse. If the Maori Party manages to keep their three electorates, it will be a miracle.
We are looking at a Labour/Green-led government to replace an ineffectual right wing government that has done very little except,
- Cut taxes for the rich
- Borrow to make up the shortfall in taxation revenue
- Hope that the ‘Market’ will deliver jobs and growth
- And day after day see more of our kids off to Australia
Aside from their most blind supporters, the middle class are abandoning National. People are finally beginning to see that this government has no plans for job growth and no vision for our society except to sell state assets to Mum and Dad investors…
… though Mum and Dad investors are currently too pre-occupied with losing their homes to worry much about whether to choose shares in Meridian or Might River Power,
See: More people losing the family home
Meanwhile, unemployment continues to rise, and even National’s figures for potential new jobs created by a new Convention Centre, built by Sky City in return for 500 more pokies, turn out to be dodgy,
See: Puzzle of Key’s extra casino jobs
A new government will have it’s work cut out for it. National has neglected the economy and social problems for three and a half years, and has cut state services to the point where their ongoing effectiveness is in question.
Let’s hope it’ll be another decade before voters flirt with another Tory government.
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National – The End is Nigh (Part #Rua)
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As this blogger has been predicting over the last few months, National is continuing to slide in the polls, and will most likely face electoral defeat at the next elections.
National’s drop in popularity can be attributed to several, distinct factors,
- Economic factors continuing to worsen; rising unemployment; stagnant economy; ballooning government debt
- No obvious plan from National to create jobs and get the economy moving again
- Constant cuts which seem to achieve nothing, and which are beginning to impact of social services
- Unpopular policies such as asset sales
- A growing perception that National is demonising unemployed workers and solo-mothers, and treating them as scapegoats for government-failures
- Scandal after scandal after scandal – with the John Banks-Dotcom affair being the worst example of political pragmatism trumping ethical decision-making by Key
All of which happened in the late 1990s, with the previous Bolger/Shipley-led National governments,
See previous blogpost: Learning from history?
See previous blogpost: Learning from history?
See previous blogpost: History Lesson – Toru – Jobs
See previous blogpost: History Lesson – Rua – Police
A Roy Morgan poll released today (Friday 18 May) shows a distinct drop for National and rise for Labour.
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2011 Election Results
National: 47.31%
Labour: 27.48%
Greens: 11.06%
Mana: 1.08%
Maori Party: 1.43%
United Future: 0.60%
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Roy Morgan Poll for 2 April 2012 – 15 April 2012
National: 49.5%
Labour: 26.5%
Greens: 12.5%
NZ First: 6.5%
United Future: 1%
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Current: Roy Morgan Poll for 30 April – 13 May 2012
National: 44.5%
Labour: 30%
Greens: 15%
NZ First: 5.5%
Maori Party: 1%
Mana Party: 0.5%
ACT: 0%
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A Labour-Green-NZ First Coalition would equal 50.5%, giving 61 seats in a 120 seat Parliament (no allowance made for potential overhangs). With Hone Harawira winning Te Tai Tokerau, and giving his vote for Supply & Confidence to a Labour-led, government, a possible coalition would have a two seat majority.
This blogger believes that National will continue to trend down in further polling, and a Labour-led coalition will increase it’s majority.
Furthermore, this blogger predicts,
- ACT will not return in the next election
- Colin Craig’s Conservative Party will not break the 5% threshold
- Peter Dunne has a less than 50/50 chance of holding his Ohariu electorate if he votes with National to privatise state owned corporations
We are seeing the decline of National, and the last term of John Key as Prime Minister.
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References
NZ Herald: Key says he’ll quit politics if National loses election
NZ Herald: National support slips further – poll
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Bugger the polls? (Part #Rua)
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Latest Roy Morgan Poll
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At the beginning of April , this blog analysed a TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll.
See: Bugger the polls?
The media reported the CB Poll as positive for National. This blog analysed the figures and arrived at a polar-opposite conclusiont: National was dropping in public opinion.
We apply the same analysis for this recent Roy Morgan Poll…
On 7-18 November 2011, a pre-election Roy Morgan poll gave us these following results,
National: 53%
Labour: 24.5%
Greens: 13%
NZ First: 3%
About a week later, polling in the 22-24 November 2011 period yielded these results,
National: 49.5%
Labour: 23.5%
Greens: 14.5%
NZ First: 6.5%
The Election Results, on 26 November2011,
National: 47.31%
Labour: 27.48%
Greens: 11.6%
NZ First: 6.59%
Recent Roy Morgan Poll for 12 March-1 April 2012 results,
National: 44%
Labour: 30.5%
Greens: 17%
NZ First: 5%
Colmar Bruntons polling, on 10 November, 18 November, and 1 April showed the folllowing trends;
National: 54%, 53%, and 51%
Labour: 28%, 26%, and 29%
Roy Morgan’s polling on 7-18 November, 22-24 November, and 12 Mar-1 Apr showed the following trends;
National: 53%, 49.5%, and 44%
Labour: 24.5%, 23.5%, and 30.5%
Election Day results;
National: 47.31%
Labour: 27.48%
Points for consideration,
- On or around 18 November, both Roy Morgan and Colmar Brunton showed National with 53% support.
- Roy Morgan’s poll for National on 22-24 November was closest to Election Day (26 November) and their figure of 49.5% was the closest to the actual Election Day result of 47.31%
- Support for National is trending down, in both polls.
- Support for Labour is trending up.
- Support for the Green Party appears to be rising – though their 11.6% result on Election Day should be cause for careful consideration. It appears that poll respondents may be stating an intention to vote Green – but for some reason may be changing their mind at the last minute. The 17% result in the recent poll may show more people supporting the Greens, which may translate to correspondingly more votes, despite last-minute mind-changing.
National is obviously bleeding support from mainstream New Zealand. Asset sales, scandals, lack of job growth, never-ending re-structuring of state sector departments on a seemingly ad hoc basis, job losses, environmental concerns, and the Sky City controversy all appear to be taking their toll.
More importantly, John Key is now on the back-foot. With the media honeymoon long gone, and journalists probing deep into National’s performance, the public are seeing things they may not have noticed before. (Or if they did notice, were prepared to give Key the benefit of the doubt.)
Key’s defensive relationship with the media is now at a stage where,
- He performed badly on Q+A on 1 April, looking uncertain, harried, and nowhere as confident and persuasive as he used to be.
- He refuses point-blank to front on Radio NZ, knowing full well that the hosts on ‘Morning Report’, ‘Nine to Noon’, and ‘Checkpoint’ would tear him to shreds.
- His media appearances now seem to consist mainly of quick lobby-stops in Parliament for one-minute sound-bites, and the “Breakfast” show on TVNZ. With all due respect to Corin Dann and Petra Bagust, the “light and fluffy” style of chat-show soft-interviewing is not conducive to asking Key the hard questions. National’s media minders and strategists know this full well. So National Party strategists are keeping him well away from the hard interviews.
If National’s hierarchy are not perturbed by falling poll support, they should be. They are bleeding support and at this rate they will end up in a poll-reversal with Labour.
I suspect their own internal polling is showing similar grim (for them) results.
Expect a change on government in 2014, if not earlier.
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= fs =
Bugger the polls?
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April 1st!?!
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At first, I thought this was an April Fool’s joke.
Evidently not. Colmar Brunton and TVNZ are playing this one straight.
Like a previous Dominion Post poll, pulling apart this piece of BS and illustrating why polling results like these are meaningless drivel, is ridiculously easy.
On 10 November 2011, a pre-election Colmar Brunton poll gave us these following results,
National: 54%
Labour: 28%
Greens: 11%
NZ First: 2.9%
A week later, on 18 November, Colmar Brunton published these pre-election poll results,
National: 53%
Labour: 26%
Greens: 13%
NZ First: 2.0%
The Election Results, on 26 November, painted a somewhat different picture,
National: 47.31%
Labour: 27.48%
Greens: 11.6%
NZ First: 6.59%
National’s polling on election day was nowhere as high as Colmar Brunton’s previous, far-fetched results. (Though Labour and The Green’s results were reasonably close to previous polling, Colmar Brunton had totally under-estimated NZ first’s voter support.)
In which case, Colmar Brunton’s current poll results today (1 April) – which seem to be a rehash of last year’s skewed figures – should be viewed with considerable suspicion,
National: 51%
Labour: 29%
Greens: 11%
NZ First: 3%
What Colmar Brunton’s figure’s do show, is that National’s support is dropping; 54% to 53% to 51% in the polls. That’s a 3 percentage-point from drop from 10 November 2011 to 1 April 2012.
Apply that same 3 percentage point drop to National’s Election Day electoral results and you get 47.31% to 44.31%.
Converted to seats: 54 seats out of 120/121. Even if Banks and Dunne retain their electorates, that gives a National/Banks/Dunne coalition 56 seats out of 120/121.
Quite a different picture to what Colmar Brunton is painting.
As I wrote on 19 March, National’s days are numbered. Barring a miraculous recovery to full employment and abandonment of their asset sales plans – this will be their last term.
Labour is now a government-in-waiting.
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* * *
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Previous Blogpost
Other Blogs
Tumeke: Mainstream media start brainfart landline polls early
Additional
Drop in support for National and Labour – poll
Support for National barely damaged by Tea Tapes
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= fs =
National – The End is Nigh
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This recent Roy Morgan poll in the ‘Dominion Post‘ caught my eye,
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At first glance, the Fairfax report sounds like good news for National and terribly bad news for Labour.
On closer analysis, nothing could be further from the truth. The story is mostly ‘spin’ – a somewhat disingenous attempt to paint the poll results in a good light. National’s own Party strategists will be viewing that poll with considerable dismay.
Here’s why…
A corresponding poll by Roy Morgan in March last year, had National on 52.5% and Labour on 32.5%,
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Comparing March 2011 with March 2012, we see the following results:
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2011 Poll Result |
2012 Poll Result |
+/- |
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| National |
52.5% |
48.5% |
– 4% |
| Labour |
32.5% |
30% |
– 2.5% |
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Both parties have actually dropped – not risen – as the Fairfax story claims.
Then we compare the Roy Morgan results with last year’s election results, and the figures become even more interesting,
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March 2011 Poll Result |
November Election |
March 2012 Poll Result |
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| National |
52.5% |
47.31% |
48.5% |
| Labour |
32.5% |
27.48% |
30% |
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Now let’s factor in the pre-election polling results from Roy Morgan, in the week prior to the November 26 general election,
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March 2011 Poll Result |
Pre-Election 2011 Morgan Poll |
November 2011 Election |
March 2012 Poll Result |
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| National |
52.5% |
49.5% |
47.31% |
48.5% |
| Labour |
32.5% |
23.5 % |
27.48% |
30% |
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Now a clearer picture emerges and nothing could be further from the truth with regards to the Fairfax report. As the polling – and the General Election results – amply illustrates, National is heading down, steadying currently at 47-48%. (And expect further falls.)
Conversely, Labour dipped from a March 2011 high of 32.5% to 23.5%, and is now climbing again.
More importantly – and this is the point that will be unsettling for National’s party strategists – a year ago, National went into the 2011 general election from a high of 52.5%. (Other polls had National even higher at 55%-plus.) From that high, as campaigning by other parties offered alternatives to voters, National shed some support, and their final end-result was 47.1% – a drop of of 5.19%.
If – as is likely – polling patterns are the same in the next couple of years, a change of government in 2014 is inevitable.
My advice to David Shearer;
- Get your party policy sorted, asap.
- Get your party restructuring sorted, asap.
- Treat other Opposition parties as your coalition partners and with respect. Form a broad Front. This will be the new reality, and if you can show that opposition parties can work together, the public will take notice.
- Get a (new?) speech writer – someone who has a flair with words, ideas, and understands what is required to spark the public’s imagination. Yes, people want policy. But more than that, they want hope and a vision. JFK had it by the truckload.
- Lastly, and most important; act as the Prime Minister-in-Waiting that you are. Treat National as an Opposition-In-Waiting, and dismiss their policies accordingly. In fact, don’t be shy in stating boldlly that National’s policies are temporary; have a Use-By date; and Labour will review them.
This is what National has to look forward to in the next couple of years,
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Labour is now a government-in-waiting.
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= fs =
New Poll Should Have National Very, Very, VERY Worried!
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A new poll out today in the NZ Herald should have National’s strategists very worried. Instead of the unfeasibly high 50%+ results that others polls have been showing – this Herald “Mood of the Nation” poll appears to mirror a recent Horizon Poll.
The results:
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NZ Herald “Mood of the Nation“– 9 November 2011 |
Horizon Poll– 20 October 2011 |
2008 General Election Results– 8 November 2008 |
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National |
43.00% |
36.80% |
44.93% |
Labour |
31.00% |
25.70% |
33.99% |
Greens |
14.00% |
11.60% |
6.72% |
ACT |
(not stated) |
3.40% |
3.65% |
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In both polls, the gap between National and Labour is between 11.1% (NZ Herald) and 12% (Horizon). The Greens would fill that gap nicely, becoming essential to form a coalition.
Wild cards: the Maori Party and Mana Party.
Not likely to retain seats in Parliament: ACT and Peter Dunne.
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+++ Updates +++
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Additional reading
Horizon Poll: Don’t know voters and minor parties will determine who governs
NZ Herald: Mood of the Nation: Labour winning battle for youth
New Zealand general election, 2008
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A Tale of Two Polls
It’s intriguing that a recent Roy Morgan poll has achieved none of the headline-status that another recent Colmar-Brunton Poll got.
In the more recent Morgan Poll, the results appeared more positive for Labour, and troublesome for National;
- National 55% (-5%)
- Labour 33.5% (+3%)
In the Colmar Brunton Poll, the results were shocking for Labour;
- National 53% (+1%)
- Labour 27% (-7%)
Is this a case of sloppy journalism? Was the Colmar Brunton Poll more “news worthy” because it contained a greater “shock” factor?
Or is this a case of media companies giving subtle encouragement/support for the incumbent, and attempting to paint Labour as lacking public support?
Cock-up or Conspiracy? The eternal question…
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