Home > The Body Politic > Bugger the polls? (Part #Rua)

Bugger the polls? (Part #Rua)

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Latest Roy Morgan Poll

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At the beginning of April , this blog analysed a TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll.

See: Bugger the polls?

The media reported the CB Poll as positive for National. This blog analysed the figures and arrived at a polar-opposite conclusiont: National was dropping in public opinion.

We apply the same analysis for this recent Roy Morgan Poll…

On 7-18 November 2011, a pre-election Roy Morgan poll gave us these  following results,

National: 53%

Labour: 24.5%

Greens: 13%

NZ First: 3%

About a week later, polling in the 22-24 November 2011 period yielded these results,

National: 49.5%

Labour:  23.5%

Greens: 14.5%

NZ First: 6.5%

The Election Results,  on 26 November2011,

National: 47.31%

Labour:  27.48%

Greens: 11.6%

NZ First: 6.59%

Recent Roy Morgan Poll for 12 March-1 April 2012  results,

National: 44%

Labour:  30.5%

Greens: 17%

NZ First: 5%

Colmar Bruntons polling,  on 10 November, 18 November, and 1 April showed the folllowing trends;

National: 54%, 53%, and 51%

Labour: 28%, 26%, and 29%

Roy Morgan’s polling on 7-18 November, 22-24 November, and 12 Mar-1 Apr showed the following trends;

National: 53%, 49.5%, and 44%

Labour: 24.5%, 23.5%, and 30.5%

Election Day results;

National: 47.31%

Labour: 27.48%

Points for consideration,

  • On or around 18 November, both Roy Morgan and Colmar Brunton showed National with 53% support.
  • Roy Morgan’s poll for National on 22-24 November was closest to Election Day (26 November) and their figure of 49.5%  was the closest to the actual Election Day result of 47.31%
  • Support for National is trending down, in both polls.
  • Support for Labour is trending up.
  • Support for the Green Party appears to be rising – though their 11.6% result on Election Day should be cause for careful consideration. It appears that poll respondents may be stating an intention to vote Green – but for some reason may be changing their mind at the last minute.  The 17% result in the recent poll may show more people supporting the Greens, which may translate to correspondingly more votes, despite last-minute mind-changing.

National is obviously bleeding support from mainstream New Zealand. Asset sales, scandals, lack of job growth, never-ending re-structuring of state sector departments on a seemingly ad hoc basis, job losses, environmental concerns, and the Sky City controversy all appear to be taking their toll.

More importantly, John Key is now on the back-foot. With the media honeymoon long gone,  and journalists probing deep into National’s performance, the public are seeing things they may not have noticed before. (Or if they did notice, were prepared to give Key the benefit of the doubt.)

Key’s defensive relationship with the media is now at a stage where,

  • He performed badly on Q+A on 1 April, looking uncertain, harried, and nowhere as confident and persuasive as he used to be.
  • He refuses point-blank to front on Radio NZ, knowing full well that the hosts on ‘Morning Report’, ‘Nine to Noon’, and ‘Checkpoint’ would tear him to shreds.
  • His media appearances now seem to consist mainly of quick lobby-stops in Parliament for one-minute sound-bites, and the “Breakfast” show on TVNZ. With all due respect to Corin Dann and Petra Bagust, the “light and fluffy” style of chat-show soft-interviewing is not conducive to asking Key the hard questions.  National’s media minders and strategists know this full well. So National Party strategists are keeping him well away from the hard interviews.

If National’s hierarchy are not perturbed by falling poll support, they should be.  They are bleeding support and at this rate they will end up in a poll-reversal with Labour.

I suspect their own internal polling is showing similar grim (for them) results.

Expect a change on government in 2014, if not earlier.

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  1. Fanbase
    6 April 2012 at 2:49 pm

    Two and a half years to go is an eternity in politics, but all the early indications from this considered analysis are certainly that the left via the Green/Labour coalition is on the way and will be surfing it by 2014. A few wild cards to consider like the implications for the fate of Winston’s NZ First and the Maori Party… and surely with some political unity from the left, Dunne/UF cannot survive Ohariu again ?

  2. 6 April 2012 at 5:19 pm

    Maybe this is a hopeless country when it comes to digging itself out of a hole. Nationa? Consider the alternatives. The main opposition led by a man with no personality to speak off, difficulty forming phrases and getting thoughts out. I desppair.

  3. 6 April 2012 at 5:39 pm

    Fanbase :

    Two and a half years to go is an eternity in politics, but all the early indications from this considered analysis are certainly that the left via the Green/Labour coalition is on the way and will be surfing it by 2014. A few wild cards to consider like the implications for the fate of Winston’s NZ First and the Maori Party… and surely with some political unity from the left, Dunne/UF cannot survive Ohariu again ?

    Fair assessment there, Fanbase. Dunne certainly held on to Ohariu by the barest of margins. If he votes to sell the SOEs, the odium of National’s policy will stick to him as well. The good people of Ohariu may not be so willing to vote for him next time.

    As for two and a half years being a long time in politics… Indeed. But it may happen much sooner, with a change in government being only one by-election away. Interesting times…

    And for the back-room strategists of the National Party; worrying times.

  4. 6 April 2012 at 5:43 pm

    JaCKIE STEINCAMP :

    Maybe this is a hopeless country when it comes to digging itself out of a hole. Nationa? Consider the alternatives. The main opposition led by a man with no personality to speak off, difficulty forming phrases and getting thoughts out. I desppair.

    Maybe it’s up to us, the people, Jackie…

    We know what we don’t want. We need to work out what we do want for our country.

    My starting point? A society without fear of going without. 🙂

    I’m picking up a subtext in media reports and public commentary that reminds me very strongly of the last few years of the doomed Shiply-led National government, in the late 1990s. Hence why I’m so confident when I say; prepare for a change in government.

  5. Theodore
    8 April 2012 at 2:32 pm

    That’s what I’m hearing on the ground floor. People who voted Key last time won’t be voting for the prick again. There are are mighty pissed off people out there.

  1. 1 May 2012 at 12:18 pm

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