Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government!
The latest Roy Morgan poll, covering 13-26 August is out – and the news is all bad for National and it’s hangers-on. The poll, if translated to actual votes at the next election, shows a change of government is all but assured,
National – 44.5% – 54 seats
Labour – 32% – 39 seats
Greens – 14.5% – 18 seats
NZ First – 5% – 6 seats
Maori Party – assuming 3 seats retained (possible)
Mana Party – assuming 1 seat retained (likely)
Peter Dunne – assuming 1 seat retained (unlikely)
ACT – 1% – assuming Epsom lost – no seats (probable)
Translated into Left-Right Blocs,
Labour-Greens-NZF-Mana: 64 seats
National-Peter Dunne-Maori Party: 58 seats
Not even close – a Labour-led coalition will form a government with a 6 seat majority.
Possible “wild cards” are,
- Will Winston Peters support a Labour-led government either as a formal coalition partner, or at very minimum, guarantee Supply & Confidence?
- Will Colin Craig’s Conservative Party breach a new 4% Party Vote threshold (if the threshold is lowered from 5% to 4%)?
- If Craig’s Party cannibalises National’s support to each the 4% threshold, any change would be minimal to the above Left-Right Bloc numbers.
- If Craig’s Party cannibalises from Labour and/or NZ First, the above Left-Right Bloc numbers could be fluid.
At any rate, this blogger’s predictions that National is bleeding electoral support is borne out by poll numbers showing a definite downward trend for National.
At 44.5%, National is now polling lower than it did last November, where it won 47.31% of the vote.
It is important to note that several polls last November had National polling from 52% to 56%. The final figure of 47.31% shows that if National goes into the next election at 44.5% – they may well end up polling even lower, say around 43%. It is a ‘given’ that high-polling Parties – especially in government – suffer from attrition in support, as other Parties campaign and compete for electoral support.
As a point of interest, National has averaged 41.2% in voter support from 1996 to 2011 (inclusive).
Through implementation of dubious or outright unpopular policies, and as cuts to social and government services bite hard into communities, National is suffering a slow “death of a thousand cuts“.
Should the sale of Mighty River Power proceed, and if power prices rise next winter, expect polling to drop even further for the Nats.
To be followed by a change in government in 2014 (if not earlier).
= fs =