Home > The Body Politic > New Poll Should Have National Very, Very, VERY Worried!

New Poll Should Have National Very, Very, VERY Worried!

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A new poll out today in the NZ Herald should have National’s  strategists very worried. Instead of the unfeasibly high 50%+  results that others polls have been showing – this Herald “Mood of the Nation” poll appears to mirror a recent Horizon Poll.

The results:

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NZ Herald “Mood of the Nation

– 9 November 2011

Horizon Poll

– 20 October 2011

2008 General Election Results

– 8 November 2008

National

43.00%
36.80%
44.93%
Labour
31.00%
25.70%
33.99%
Greens
14.00%
11.60%
6.72%
ACT
(not stated)
3.40%
3.65%

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In both polls, the gap between National and Labour is between 11.1% (NZ Herald) and 12% (Horizon). The Greens would fill that gap nicely, becoming essential to form a coalition.

Wild cards:  the Maori Party and Mana Party.

Not likely to retain seats in Parliament: ACT and Peter Dunne.

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+++ Updates +++

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Source

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Additional reading

Horizon Poll: Don’t know voters and minor parties will determine who governs

NZ Herald: Mood of the Nation: Labour winning battle for youth

New Zealand general election, 2008

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  1. Gosman
    9 November 2011 at 3:46 pm

    Frank this is a vox pop poll. These things are completely unreliable and not very scientific. If this is the best that the left has to grasp on to at this stage it is truly sad. National strategists aren’t going to lose sleep over this one one iota.

  2. 9 November 2011 at 7:03 pm

    Is the Horizon Poll a “vox pop” as well?

    • Gosman
      10 November 2011 at 10:44 am

      No. However it does have a very different methodology than the other polls. Hence why it seems to give a boost to the minor party’s share of the vote. It may be more accurate than the other polls or it may not however I doubt it. I don’t think ACT or NZ First have the level of support that it ascribes to them.

  3. Matthew
    9 November 2011 at 7:11 pm

    “These things are completely unreliable and not very scientific.” Same too could be said about the Fairfax polling.

    • Gosman
      10 November 2011 at 12:17 pm

      No it couldn’t. It follows a quite strict polling methodology.

      • Matthew
        10 November 2011 at 12:57 pm

        There are 2 types of error. Statistical error, which is measurable, and because of the small size of the Fairfax Poll, is still not insignificant (about 3% or something which swamps small party votes) and Systematic error. Systematic error is when the sample of pollsters you use are not representative of the actual population. And Fairfax would have no idea what’s it’s systematic error is. If they call people during their dinner a certain % are going to tell them to “eff off” and how do those people vote? Or if it is during X-factor, some people are going to be home and others are off down the pub? Or is it just landlines? There goes the young and the poor. Then as a matter of principle some people give believable but false answers. Plus have you, or do you actually know anyone who had ever been polled? I have my doubts they actually follow their own methodology. Taken together, the statistical and systematic errors, plus the doubt they’re anything but an editorial opinion piece telling us how to behave, polls, Fairfax or otherwise, are only good for wiping your bum with.

      • Gosman
        10 November 2011 at 6:44 pm
        • Matthew
          10 November 2011 at 8:29 pm

          yeah, yeah, yeah, but from it:
          “it’s impossible to tell whether any particular pollster is showing a bias with respect to the real levels of support for each party, because we only find out what the whole population is thinking when we have an election.”

          until then they’re only guesstimates

          later he says “you should take these results with several grains of salt”

          he’s right there too.

          Don’t read too much into the polls Gosman, as they’re only an approximation of reality.

          (and really do you think maybe, just maybe it might be cheaper to make up some numbers, than do a full interview for an extra data point?) and if you owned the polling company and the newspaper you could make it up to suit your agenda. Relying on a poll for a story is lazy journalism. They do it because it’s easy. But the stories they come up with are as meaningless as the numbers.

          Today the Herald was claiming that the South Island is full of lefties on the basis of 523 phone interviews. Well that means there is 500,000 people they didn’t ask.

          Numbers can be meaningless. Did you know Gosman that 63% of people believe that people will believe anything they are told?

          And I’ve been running the numbers on spelling mistakes amongst commenters across the Herald, the Fairfax papers and Yahoo Xtra and TV3 news, and since September 1, I’ve calculated that:

          Of National supporters, 62% of them have made at least one spelling error.
          Of ACT supporters it’s 69%. Of Labour 28% and Green 17%. Either dyslexics are natural conservatives, or Greens voters are smarter than the rest.

          If you think those numbers don’t add up then look at http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/election-2011/5931170/National-heading-for-outright-win

          The Fairfax Poll says:
          52.5% National. Labour 25.9%. Greens 12.6%, NZ First 2.8%, Maori 1.5% Act 1.0%, Mana 0.7%, United Future 0.3%, Progressive 0.2%, All others 2.5% and Undecided 14.3%.

          Just in my head that’s like 114%. Well how much credibility can you give them when they can’t even add up to 100%? Fairfax are innumerate fuckers who don’t know what they are doing.Why believe a word of it?

          So Gossman find out what a Potemkin number is. Learn what a Potemkin village is. Realise that your favourite little John Key is a Potemkin prime minister.

      • Gosman
        11 November 2011 at 7:10 am

        Jeeze Matthew if you don’t know that the undecided figure is a separate percentage from the others then I am surprised you manage to get out of your house every day without too much hassle.

        • Matthew
          11 November 2011 at 7:33 am

          Don’t be such a [expletive deleted] Gosman.

      • Gosman
        11 November 2011 at 2:45 pm

        Don’t be such a naiive individual Matthew. Or more accurately perhaps you should follow the advice of Oscar Wilde when he stated ‘Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt’.

  4. Red
    10 November 2011 at 12:44 pm

    I’m not surprised. I’m hearing the same thing from many people that they don’t trust Key.

    • Gosman
      10 November 2011 at 6:36 pm

      Wow! A left leaning individual hears views from his circle of aquantances and friends that are consistent with his own political viewpoint. Who would have thunk it?

  5. 10 November 2011 at 7:11 pm

    Gosman :

    Wow! A left leaning individual hears views from his circle of aquantances and friends that are consistent with his own political viewpoint. Who would have thunk it?

    I don’t think she’s “left leaning”. In one of her other posts, Red stated she had voted for John Key.

    • Gosman
      11 November 2011 at 7:31 am

      Which post was that? The only one I can see is where she mentioned her Dad thinking about voting for a National party candidate.

      • 11 November 2011 at 9:34 am
      • Red
        11 November 2011 at 12:17 pm

        Gos I voted National in 2008. I was too young to vote in 2005. This time I’m voting green or labour just not sure which.

      • Gosman
        11 November 2011 at 2:47 pm

        The question at the bottom is for Red.

  6. 10 November 2011 at 11:05 pm

    Matthew :

    yeah, yeah, yeah, but from it:
    “it’s impossible to tell whether any particular pollster is showing a bias with respect to the real levels of support for each party, because we only find out what the whole population is thinking when we have an election.”

    until then they’re only guesstimates

    later he says “you should take these results with several grains of salt”

    he’s right there too.

    Don’t read too much into the polls Gosman, as they’re only an approximation of reality.

    (and really do you think maybe, just maybe it might be cheaper to make up some numbers, than do a full interview for an extra data point?) and if you owned the polling company and the newspaper you could make it up to suit your agenda. Relying on a poll for a story is lazy journalism. They do it because it’s easy. But the stories they come up with are as meaningless as the numbers.

    Today the Herald was claiming that the South Island is full of lefties on the basis of 523 phone interviews. Well that means there is 500,000 people they didn’t ask.

    Numbers can be meaningless. Did you know Gosman that 63% of people believe that people will believe anything they are told?

    And I’ve been running the numbers on spelling mistakes amongst commenters across the Herald, the Fairfax papers and Yahoo Xtra and TV3 news, and since September 1, I’ve calculated that:

    Of National supporters, 62% of them have made at least one spelling error.
    Of ACT supporters it’s 69%. Of Labour 28% and Green 17%. Either dyslexics are natural conservatives, or Greens voters are smarter than the rest.

    If you think those numbers don’t add up then look at http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/election-2011/5931170/National-heading-for-outright-win

    The Fairfax Poll says:
    52.5% National. Labour 25.9%. Greens 12.6%, NZ First 2.8%, Maori 1.5% Act 1.0%, Mana 0.7%, United Future 0.3%, Progressive 0.2%, All others 2.5% and Undecided 14.3%.

    Just in my head that’s like 114%. Well how much credibility can you give them when they can’t even add up to 100%? Fairfax are innumerate fuckers who don’t know what they are doing.Why believe a word of it?

    So Gossman find out what a Potemkin number is. Learn what a Potemkin village is. Realise that your favourite little John Key is a Potemkin prime minister.

    114.3%!!! You’re right!!

    Excuse me for a moment…

    *walks into corner*

    *kicks myself very hard in the arse for not noticing this*

    *adjusts clothing and tie*

    *walks back out again*

    Now, where were we…?

    Mathew, I definitely owe you a beer/shot/OJ next time you’re in town. This poll is not worth the paper it’s printed on, or the pixels used on our monitor screens!

  7. Gosman
    11 November 2011 at 2:46 pm

    Serious question for you. Why did you vote National in 2008? What particular policy attracted you to them?

    • Matthew
      11 November 2011 at 2:55 pm

      Leave her alone you bully. She is not answerable to you.

      She obviously made a mistake like everyone else yet to see through the smile.

    • Red
      13 November 2011 at 12:21 pm

      Gos John Key came across really good to me last time. I thought he was sincere in doing the things he said he would but he hasn’t. Most of the tax cuts have gone to the rich and he hasnt done anything to increase wages like he said he would and heaps of people are still leaving for australia. I also dont trust his smile.

      I still havent decided who to vote for but the more I see of Key the more theres something about him that creeps me out.

  8. Red
    13 November 2011 at 12:22 pm

    Matthew :

    Leave her alone you bully. She is not answerable to you.

    She obviously made a mistake like everyone else yet to see through the smile.

    Thanks Mathew its all cool.

  9. 10 December 2011 at 4:46 pm

    Gosman :

    Don’t be such a naiive individual Matthew. Or more accurately perhaps you should follow the advice of Oscar Wilde when he stated ‘Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt’.

    Well, I think the election results have kinda shown who should’ve “remained silent”, eh Gosman?

  10. Matthew
    10 December 2011 at 10:16 pm

    The Fairfax polls were out by more than their stated error margin.

    National got 47.31%, yet Fairfax said 52.5% and they said they had a 3.6% error margin.

    See Fairfax was full of shit. It could be that they are just rubbish statisticians, and they believed their own bullshit or they were deliberately misleading the public for political purposes. Either way Fairfax should apologise to New Zealand.

  1. 10 November 2011 at 11:27 pm

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