Poll shows gain for National’s ‘dog whistle’ politics
Continued from: Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government
The latest Roy Morgan Poll (27 August – 9 September)showed a predictable rise in support the National Party at 46.5% (up 2% since August 13-26, 2012),
Translated into seats,
National – 46.5% – 56 seats
Labour – 31% – 38 seats
Greens – 12.5% – 15 seats
NZ First – 4.5% (likely to increase to 5% in 2014)– 6 seats
Maori Party – assuming – 2 seats retained (possible) (3 seats, unlikely)
Mana Party – 2 seats (possible)
Peter Dunne – assuming 1 seat retained (possible)
ACT – 0.5% – assuming Epsom lost – no seats (probable)
Labour, the Greens, and NZ First dropped minutely, and ACT is heading for Zero Percent territory.
Seen in a Left-Right bloc context;
Labour-Greens-NZF-Mana: 61 seats
National-Peter Dunne-Maori Party: 59 seats
The figures are not at all surprising. This blogger predicted that National will experience a “bounce” in the polls as it engages in dog-whistle politics.
Bashing the unemployed, solo-mums (but never solo-dads) and other welfare beneficiaries and “standing up to greedy Mow-ries” is always a vote winner with low-information voters.
Don Brash’s “Orewa Speech” in January 2004 was racist dog-whistle politics that pandered to the lowest common denominator in New Zealand politics.
It also gave National a temporary boost in public opinion polls, rising 17% in a subsequent TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll.
17% increase in public support – a sad “reward” for a racist speech that pandered to our most base instincts.
The SOE water rights issue and bene-bashing is a predictable strategy for any right wing Party to employ, to boost public poll support. At the moment, National has very little else to rely on – the news from the economy is all bad.
National may stop at abolishing the Treaty of Waitangi and “nationalising water and air”, and may think twice before demanding that all welfare recipients sew black triangles onto their clothing – but I’m sure several of them have fantasised over the prospect.
This blogger predicts that National may indeed rise another percentage point or two – but like the aftermath of the 2004 Orewa Speech, the Nats will fall back as peoples’ irrational racist fears subside and poor economic indicators and poverty continue to dominate headlines.
We are still on course for a change of government in 2014, if not earlier.
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