Home > The Body Politic > Poll shows gain for National’s ‘dog whistle’ politics

Poll shows gain for National’s ‘dog whistle’ politics



Continued from: Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government

The latest Roy Morgan Poll (27 August –  9 September)showed  a predictable rise in support the  National Party at  46.5% (up 2% since August 13-26, 2012),



Roy Morgan Poll 9 September 2012 – Trending


See: National (46.5%) increases strong lead over Labour (31%)

Translated into seats,

National – 46.5% –   56 seats

Labour – 31% –  38 seats

Greens – 12.5% – 15 seats

NZ First – 4.5%  (likely to increase to 5% in 2014)–  6 seats

Maori Party – assuming – 2 seats retained (possible) (3 seats, unlikely)

Mana Party – 2 seats  (possible)

Peter Dunne – assuming 1 seat retained (possible)

ACT – 0.5% – assuming Epsom lost – no seats (probable)

Labour, the Greens, and NZ First dropped minutely, and ACT is heading for Zero Percent territory.

Seen in a Left-Right bloc context;

Labour-Greens-NZF-Mana: 61 seats

National-Peter Dunne-Maori Party: 59 seats

The figures are not at all surprising. This blogger predicted that National will experience a “bounce” in the polls as it engages in dog-whistle politics.

Bashing the unemployed, solo-mums (but never solo-dads) and other welfare beneficiaries and “standing up to greedy Mow-ries” is always a vote winner with low-information voters.

Don Brash’s “Orewa Speech”  in January 2004 was racist dog-whistle politics that pandered to the lowest common denominator in New Zealand politics.

See: “NATIONHOOD – Don Brash Speech Orewa Rotary Club”

It also gave National a temporary boost in public opinion polls, rising 17% in a subsequent  TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll.

See: At least Louis Crimp is honest

17% increase in public support – a sad “reward” for a racist speech that pandered to our most base instincts.

The SOE water rights issue and bene-bashing is a predictable strategy for any right wing Party to employ, to boost public poll support. At the moment, National has very little else to rely on – the news from the economy is all bad.

National may stop at abolishing the Treaty of Waitangi and “nationalising water and air”, and may think twice before demanding that all welfare recipients sew black triangles onto their clothing – but I’m sure several of them have fantasised over the prospect.

This blogger predicts that National may indeed rise another percentage point or two – but like the aftermath of the 2004 Orewa Speech, the Nats will fall back as peoples’ irrational racist fears subside and poor economic indicators and poverty continue to dominate headlines.

We are still on course for a change of government in 2014, if not earlier.




Previous blogposts

Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government!

National ramps up attack on unemployed and solo-mums

National in trouble? Time to dog-whistle the Middle Class!



= fs =

  1. 8 September 2012 at 1:22 am

    Gosh these polls r becoming very depressing, gosh i need a good dose of perseverance n kaha its starting to get to me! damn

  2. 18 September 2012 at 1:51 am

    They don’t poll beneficiaries do they? Problem may be few beneficiaries apparently vote. I hope 2014 changes that in a positive way.

  3. Mick
    18 September 2012 at 9:23 am

    makes you wonder where do they get their numbers from ? I’ve seen hundreds of polls and never once been polled ? Do they call the same people all the time ? Do they only call people with “land lines” ? Do they poll people all around NZ of just local ?

  4. 18 September 2012 at 10:56 am

    Indeed, Kay. And therein lies one of our problems – an alienation from the political process that allows a default election result, not because of popular support – but because people are no voting.

    At the next election, every opposition Party needs to muster their supporters and do a “+1” – each Party activist support supports a non-voter to vote. That’s how we “grow” the vote.

    I think we can do it.

  5. 18 September 2012 at 11:29 am

    A point of interest.

    Key was interviewed on TVNZ’s Q+A on Sunday, 16 September. Q+A welcomes viewers to txt in their responses to interviews.

    Generally, txters are more or less evenly spread in “For” and “Against” views.

    However, the responses this time were quite eye-opening;

    Against Key: 13 txters.

    For Key: 1 txter.

    Obscure responses: 3

    Now whilst this is by no means even remotely ‘scientific’, I found it interesting that the majority of viewers were hostile to Key. A recent Fairfax/Ipsos Poll referred to Key being a “polarising figure” in politics and this may eventually be his greatest undoing; http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/7372909/Key-battle-lines-drawn-in-early-political-poll

  1. 25 September 2012 at 12:30 am

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