Home > The Body Politic > Bugger the polls?

Bugger the polls?

|

April 1st!?!

|

Full Story

|

At first, I thought this was an April Fool’s joke.

Evidently not. Colmar Brunton  and TVNZ are playing this one straight.

Like a previous Dominion Post  poll, pulling apart this piece of BS  and illustrating why  polling results like these  are meaningless drivel, is ridiculously easy.

On 10 November 2011, a pre-election Colmar Brunton poll gave us these  following results,

National: 54%

Labour:  28%

Greens: 11%

NZ First: 2.9%

A  week later, on 18 November, Colmar Brunton published these pre-election poll results,

National: 53%

Labour:  26%

Greens: 13%

NZ First: 2.0%

The Election Results,  on 26 November, painted a somewhat different picture,

National: 47.31%

Labour:  27.48%

Greens: 11.6%

NZ First: 6.59%

National’s polling on election day was nowhere as high as Colmar Brunton’s previous, far-fetched results.  (Though Labour and The Green’s results were reasonably close to previous polling, Colmar Brunton had totally under-estimated NZ first’s voter support.)

In which case, Colmar Brunton’s current poll results today (1 April) – which seem to be a rehash of last year’s skewed figures – should be viewed with considerable suspicion,

National: 51%

Labour:  29%

Greens: 11%

NZ First: 3%

What Colmar Brunton’s figure’s do show, is that National’s support is dropping; 54% to 53% to 51% in the polls. That’s a 3 percentage-point from drop from 10 November 2011 to 1 April 2012.

Apply that same 3 percentage point drop to National’s Election Day electoral results and you get 47.31% to 44.31%.

Converted to seats: 54 seats out of 120/121. Even if Banks and Dunne retain their electorates, that gives a National/Banks/Dunne coalition 56 seats out of 120/121.

Quite a different picture to what Colmar Brunton is painting.

As I wrote on 19 March, National’s days are numbered.  Barring a miraculous recovery to full employment and abandonment of their asset sales plans – this will be their last term.

Labour is now a government-in-waiting.

|

* * *

|

Previous Blogpost

National – The End is Nigh

Other Blogs

Tumeke:  Mainstream media start brainfart landline polls early

Additional

Drop in support for National and Labour – poll

Support for National barely damaged by Tea Tapes

2011 General Election Results

|

|

= fs =

Advertisements
  1. 1 April 2012 at 11:04 pm

    Labour gained by the same margin. But David Shearer needs to make comment on issues. Just short soundbyte comments. Labour needs to let potential investers in the energy companies know that Labour could re-nationalise anything privatised. Whether they could is unimportant. Just tell them!

  2. 1 April 2012 at 11:29 pm

    Interesting point about Labou’s polling actually climbing. I had forgotten to mention that salient point…

    Actua;lly, there’s another way Labour could torpedoe National’s privatisation programme: renationalise just one of the power companies (doesn’t matter which), and then instruct the newly privatised power company to drop prices to half of what the other powerco’s are charging.

    Then offer to buy-back shares in other powerco’s, at the same price they were purchased from the State.

    After that, Labour needs to restructure the electricity industry in such a way that no future National Government can interfere with it again.

    I have a cunning plan…

  3. Priss
    2 April 2012 at 11:22 am

    The two polls on 10 and 17 November had Labour and the Greens on 39% and only their respective figures changed slightly. The election had Labour and Greens on 39.08%.

    The April 1st poll had the Greens and Labour on 40%. I thinks that’s interesting in it’s own right. The Left is slowing increasing it’s support.

  4. Deborah Kean
    2 April 2012 at 1:51 pm

    Oh, I heard Mathew Hooton creaming his jeans about this poll this morning on Radio New Zealand!
    According to him, it’s just awesomely wonderful news…
    Lolwut?
    Deb

  5. 2 April 2012 at 2:22 pm

    Deborah Kean :

    Oh, I heard Mathew Hooton creaming his jeans about this poll this morning on Radio New Zealand!
    According to him, it’s just awesomely wonderful news…
    Lolwut?
    Deb

    Debbie, i just wonder if he’s starting to believe his own ‘spin’…?! 😀

    • Deborah Kean
      2 April 2012 at 2:39 pm

      Quite possible! I did wonder while I was listening, about what National’s own internal polling is telling them…
      Deb

  1. 2 April 2012 at 9:51 am
  2. 6 April 2012 at 1:09 pm
  3. 1 May 2012 at 12:18 pm

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: