Latest Roy Morgan Poll – the game has turned!

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Don’t let anyone tell you that the Left is headed for defeat on 20 September.

Don’t let the polls tell you that the election is done-and-dusted and Key will be settling in for a third term.

Don’t let Labour’s right-wing MPs’ shenanigans demoralise you.

Don’t let media smear campaigns and various Tory dirty tricks shake your faith.

The election campaign has only just begun, and the most recent poll – from Roy Morgan –  will be giving Key, Joyce, Brownlee, English, Collins, Bennett, etc, sleepless nights from now on.

The Roy Morgan poll, carried out at the end of July, paints a grim picture for the Nats;

National: 46%  (down 5%)

Labour: 30% (up 6.5%)

Greens: 12% (down 3%)

NZ First: 5% (down 1%)

Internet-Mana Party Alliance: 2.5% (up 1%)

Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)

ACT:  0.5% (unchanged)

United Future: 0.5% (unchanged).

Conservative Part:  1% (unchanged)

National’s 46 percentage rating is a massive drop from the low-to-mid 50s it has been enjoying in polls up until now. Even the previous Roy Morgan poll (which is the main poll to consider as it is the only one that calls cellphones) had National on 51%.

Make no mistake about the significance on this fall; National is now polling below it’s election night result of 47.31%!

Why is this significant and ultimately so terrifying for this government?

Because if you glance to the chart below, you will see polling results for the month of October, preceding the 2011 General Election, which had National rating between 53.5% to 57.4%.

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	National	Labour	Greens	NZ First
One News Colmar Brunton [1]2 October 2011	56%	29%	9%	1.9%
3 News Reid Research [1]2 October 2011	57.4%	26.6%	9.8%	1.9%
Roy Morgan Research [1]26 September – 9 October 2011	55.5%	28%	9.5%	2%
Roy Morgan Research [1]10–23 October 2011	53.5%	29.5%	9.5%	2.5%
Herald-DigiPoll [1]20–27 October 2011	53.5%	30.3%	9.5%	2.85
Actual Election Night Result [2]26 November 2011	47.31%	27.48%	11.06%	6.59%
Fairfax/Ipsos Poll [6]17 July 2014	54.8%	24.9%	12.4%	2.6%
Herald-DigiPoll [5]20 July 2014	52%	26.5%	9.9%	4.6%
One News Colmar Brunton [4]27 July 2014	52%	28%	10%	4%
Roy Morgan [3]31 July	46%	30%	12%	5%
Election Night: Frank’s Prediction20 September 2014	44%	33%	13%	5%

 

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Yet, less than two months later, their actual election night result was far less – 47.31%.

Polling results are only approximate indicators. They are never accurate for the following reasons;

1. They do not take into account the Undecideds/Won’t Say respondents.
2. Undecideds become Decideds, as they firm up their decisions.
3. People change their minds.

If National is polling mid-to-high 40s at this point in the campaign, their election night result will be even lower. My guess is around, or below,  the 45% mark.

My prediction for this year’s election night results:

National: 44% – 53 seats

Labour: 33% – 40 seats

Greens: 13% – 16 seats

NZ First: 5% – 6 seats

Mana Movement: 4 seats

Maori Party: 1 seat

ACT:  1 seat

Dunne: nil – seat loss

NZ First will try to be the “kingmaker” and my prediction is that he will coalesce with National. The Maori Party will coalesce with Labour, giving a Labour-led coalition a one seat majority.

 

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References

Roy Morgan:  National (51%) increases election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (38.5%)

Wikipedia:  Election Night results: 2011

[1] Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2011

[2] Election Night results: 2011

[3] Roy Morgan: National (46%) lead over Labour/ Greens (42%)

[4] One News Colmar Brunton: More poll woes for Labour as National rides high

[5] NZ Herald: National and John Key more favoured than ever for next government

[6] Fairfax/Ipsos Poll: Labour’s poll woe deepens

 

Other blogposts

The Daily Blog:  Latest Roy Morgan Poll: Labour jumps 6.5 points up to 30%, National tumble

The Standard: Latest Roy Morgan poll

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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes

This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 3 August 2014

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