Latest Roy Morgan Poll – on course to dump this rotten government…
Maintaining a consistent picture, Roy Morgan’s recent poll shows that New Zealand is on course to dump the current Tory government;
National: 41% (- 3)
Labour: 32.5% (+ 1)
Greens: 15% (+ 1)
New Zealand First: 6.5% (+ 1)
Conservative Party: 1.5% (+ 1)
Maori Party: 1% (- 1)
ACT: 1% (+ .5)
United Future: 0.5% (unchanged)
Mana Party: 0.5% (unchanged)
Undecided/Declined to say: 6% (+ 1)
It apears that the Nats are continuing to lose support as they proceed with asset sales and unpopular legislation such as the GCSB Bill. The latter was perhaps a watershed moment as New Zealanders witnessed the arrogance of John Key and his shabby government.
The only “wild card” in this scenario is Winston Peters. As always, the question is – which way will he jump?
Those voters who want a change in government should be cautious is supporting NZ First. There is no guarantee that Peters will support a Labour-led coalition. (See: NZ First opts for National)
It is also interesting to note that 6% of respondents were either undecided or declined to nominate a preference. That is a sizeable chunk of voters and in itself shows that people are looking for possible alternatives to Key and National. The Roy Morgan report states that the number of Undecideds/Refused had increased by one percentage point.
Even as National bleeds support, voters are re-thinking who to support.
This blogger maintains a prediction that we will see a change in government in 2014 (if not earlier).
This will be Key’s last term in office.
Note: Roy Morgan is the only polling company that phones mobiles, as well as landlines. It is therefore more realistic in poll outcomes than those companies that contact landlines only.
Previous related blogposts
Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government! (2 Sept 2012)
Shock News: Roy Morgan predicting change in government (8 June 2013)
Mr Morgan phoned (1 Sept 2013)
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