Latest Roy Morgan Poll – on course to dump this rotten government…

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Maintaining a consistent picture, Roy Morgan’s recent poll shows that New Zealand is on course to dump the current Tory government;

National: 41% (- 3)

Labour: 32.5% (+ 1)

Greens:  15%  (+ 1)

New Zealand First: 6.5% (+ 1)

Conservative Party: 1.5% (+ 1)

Maori Party: 1% (- 1)

ACT:  1% (+ .5)

United Future: 0.5% (unchanged)

Mana Party: 0.5% (unchanged)

Undecided/Declined to say: 6% (+ 1)

It apears that the Nats are continuing to lose support as they proceed with asset sales and unpopular legislation such as the GCSB Bill. The latter was perhaps a watershed moment as New Zealanders witnessed the arrogance of John Key and his shabby government.

The only “wild card” in this scenario is Winston Peters. As always, the question is – which way will he jump?

Those voters who want a change in government should be cautious is supporting NZ First.  There is no guarantee that Peters will support a Labour-led coalition. (See: NZ First opts for National)

It is also interesting to note that 6% of respondents were either undecided or declined to nominate a preference. That is a sizeable chunk of voters and in itself shows that people are looking for possible alternatives to Key and National. The Roy Morgan report states that the number of Undecideds/Refused had increased by one percentage point.

Even as National bleeds support, voters are re-thinking who to support.

This blogger maintains a prediction that we will see a change in government in 2014 (if not earlier).

This will be Key’s last term in office.

Note: Roy Morgan is the only polling company that phones mobiles, as well as landlines. It is therefore more realistic in poll outcomes than those companies that contact landlines only.

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References

Roy Morgan poll

Previous related blogposts

Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government! (2 Sept 2012)

Shock News: Roy Morgan predicting change in government (8 June 2013)

Mr Morgan phoned (1 Sept 2013)

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