Home > The Body Politic > Shock News: Roy Morgan predicting change in government!!!

Shock News: Roy Morgan predicting change in government!!!


Red Green Up


A current shock Roy Morgan poll predicts a  change in government, if the results are carried through to the next general election.

The poll results are as follows;

National: 41% (down 3%)

Labour: 35% (up 3%)

Greens: 12%  (unchanged)

NZ First: 4.5% (down 0.5%)

Conservative Party: 2.5% (up 1%)

Maori Party: 2% (unchanged)

ACT:  0.5% (down 1%)

United Future: 0.5% (unchanged)

Mana Party: 0.5% (down 0.5%)

A Labour-Green Bloc together would win 47%  of the Party Vote – beating National’s 41%.


Latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll

Acknowledgment: Roy Morgan


What makes this poll stand out above recent television and Fairfax-IPSOS polls are;

  1. The poll results appear more realistic in terms in terms of negative public sentiment to National’s policies,
  2. Roy Morgan polling has been more consistent,
  3. The polling takes into account respondents contacted via cellphone – a major criticism of other polls which only contact landlines.
  4. The figure of 41% echoes a comment made by National Party supporter and right-wing commentator, Matthew Hooten, on Citizen A on 16 May.



The fact that polling is including respondents who may rely solely  cellphones gives Roy Morgan an added advantage over other pollsters, who only call land-lines.

As Statistics NZ tabulates it’s recent census data, we will soon have a better understanding of how many households rely solely on cellphones, with an absence of landlines. (See related blogpost: Census, Surveys, and Cellphones)

As well, note Matthew’s comment at 27.15, where he says,

“The impact of gay marriage. The private polling by the major parties shows both National and Labour sharply down. National in one private poll has a poll number with a ‘3’ in front of it…”

His ‘slip’ (?) and reference  to “a poll number with a ‘3’ in front of it” backs up Roy Morgan’s poll results perfectly.

The National Party hierarchy must be fully aware that the TV and Fairfax polls are inflated and unrealistic. Which is one reason why the Nats recently ‘caved’ to public pressure and implemented a restricted ‘Claytons‘   food-in-schools programme.

National’s support of State provision for  feeding children came as a bizarre  after-thought to the main Budget, and it could only have occurred if massive public pressure had been brought to bear. This kind of socialised service provision does not come naturally to a right wing Party like National.

Keep an eye on future Roy Morgan polls.

We are witnessing the inexorable decline of one government – as the next,  government-in-waiting, prepares to take the reins.

However, one Big Question remains: what will a new, left-wing, Labour-Green government do, once in power? For a further viewpoint on this vexing issue, read Morgan Godfery’s blogpost; What the left can learn from Lusk.

Do we unpick and wind back neo-liberalism? Or should we be content merely to ‘contain’ it?

NZ Power was a good start and received favourable support from the electorate. But that is only a start.

After thirty years of failed neo-liberalism, and with around 270,00 children living in poverty, there is much work to do.

The rebuild of Christchurch is under way.

The re-build of New Zealand is yet to begin.



Previous related blogposts

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones


Roy Morgan Poll 29 May 2013

Citizen A 16 May 2013

Other blogposts

What the left can learn from Lusk



= fs =

  1. mcclairy
    8 June 2013 at 10:00 am

    It won’t happen unless there is a change in the Labour leadership. I keep fingers crossed hoping Shearer will be a fast learner, have wise heads advising him, but Labour is running out of time. I still think Cunliffe is the one to take on Key plus his mutterings against neoliberalism prior to the leadership challenge gave one hope. Okay, no one is perfect, even Cunliffe has his faults and aren’t we all flawed, but on the 80/20 rule Cunliffe is in the 80% good and somewhere within the 20% error of judgement fault line. Parker is improving but he hasn’t got that killer instinct, all brains and no brawn. Then there is the MSM – not going to change Armstrong, Roughan and O’Sullivan and their ability to damn Labour-Greens with faint praise if not straight out hostility. Labour-Greens are going to have to get their walking shoes on and door knock in those electorates which had the lowest turn out last election otherwise, as “Fraser” says, “We are all doomed, doomed”. Ohuria – now that Dunne’s worm has turned, should be a cinch if Labour-Greens get their act together in the electorate…..starting yesterday 🙂

  2. K
    8 June 2013 at 11:19 am

    Humph. Why not just Greens? Their leader is twice what Shearer could ever be.

    • mcclairy
      8 June 2013 at 3:53 pm

      We are a family who put the Greens and Labour in a hat come election time – and you vote for what you get….stops never ending debates, indecisions, mind changing but at least we hopefully get that coalition…….as a non gambler I think it’s called spreading your bets 🙂 It may happen that Russel Norman could head a Labour majority in coalition with the Greens? A long shot – just so long as we have strong leadership against the Natz sharks. Would like to throw Mana in the hat but the polls show it too close to call between the 3 major parties to take that chance until Mana get up there in the 5% range. Not just Epsomites who
      vote strategically 🙂

      • 8 June 2013 at 5:11 pm

        Two Green and a Mana Party voters in our household… We might all be Mana voters by 2014.

        Which is not an easy decision as the Greens are also a great Party to support.

  3. samwise
    10 June 2013 at 1:41 pm

    A snap election would be the best thing to happen!! Bring it on!

  1. 26 June 2013 at 2:33 pm
  2. 14 September 2013 at 6:44 pm

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