TV3 Polling and some crystal-ball gazing

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The latest TV3-ReidResearch poll confirms what many are beginning to accept as a growing reality; unless Labour (or the Greens) have a major stumble, there will be a change of government at the end of the year. The only caveat to this is the unpredictable Winston Peters.

Normally, I place little faith in polls other than the Roy Morgan poll (and of course, the only poll that counts: election day) because none of the other pollsters call cellphones. As the Census showed last year, only “85.5% of households had access to a landline telephone at home, down from 91.6% in 2006″.

This means that 14.5% of households did not have access to a landline.

That is quite a chunk of the electorate. Especially when indications are that this year’s election will be a close result between the Left and Right bloc.

Because Roy Morgan is the only polling company that (currently) calls cellphones as well as landlines, it is more accurate than companies that call only the latter.

What makes the TV3-Reid Research poll so interesting is that, this time, it seems to mirror the last Roy Morgan poll taken between 6 January  to 19 January, 2014.

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	Roy Roy Morgan poll 6 – 19 January 2014	TV3 – Reid Research Poll 2 February 2014
Right Bloc
National	43.5%	44.05%
Maori Party	2.00%	1.00%
Conservative Party	2.50%	2.10%
ACT	0.00%	0.00%
United Future/Peter Dunne	0.50%	0.00%
Left Bloc
Labour	33.50%	33.50%
Greens	12.50%	12.40%
Mana	0.50%	0.30%
Wild Card
NZ First	4.00%	5.70%

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In both polls, National is losing support, whilst Labour is gaining. (The Greens have lost support in one poll, but gained in another.)

Interestingly, both the Maori Party and Mana poll higher in the Roy Morgan poll. This is unsurprising as the constituents of both parties are more likely to rely solely on cellphone communications rather than landlines, and Roy Morgan is subsequently better placed to poll these voters.

As I wrote on 30 January, though NZ First polled at 4% in the Roy Morgan poll – just under the 5% threshold – this blogger believes Peters will pull his Party up, and return to Parliament. (The only qualifyer to this is if the public are sufficiently  spooked by Peters’ continuing refusal to indicate which Bloc he will support, post-election.)

The TV3 Reid Research poll seems to back this up, though it remains to be seen if this burst in support will be reflected in the next (more accurate) Roy Morgan polling.

Regardless, this blogger believes that NZ First will be returned to Parliament, with between 5% to 7% Party Vote.

National will continue to bleed support as Labour and the Greens present a credible alternative to National’s ad hoc spending decisions (giving money to billion dollar corporations whilst cutting back on public services).

Other factors that will impact on National’s poll rating,

• rising mortgage interest rates – estimated to reach 7% to 8%
• rising fuel prices as the global economy picks up, and the demand for oil increases
• a bounce upward in unemployment, as businesses attempt to cut costs by reducing staff
• an on-going shortage of affordable housing
• young New Zealanders forced out of the housing market, due to National’s sign-off on Reserve Bank policies
• continuing wages lagging behind CPI increases
• worsening balance of payments and another credit downgrade by Standard & Poors, Moodies, and/or Fitch

In desperation, expect National to,

• Do deals with Act and the Conservatives
• Cosy up to NZ First
• Engage in more beneficiary-bashing
• Engage in more personal attacks on Labour, Green, and Mana MPs
• Whaleoil to release nasty ‘dirt’ on various Opposition MPs
• Suddenly find money to spend on worthy public services
• Hint at a further round of tax cuts

Barring any more major screw-ups by Labour (or by the Greens), we are on course (as this blogger has been predicting since 2011) for a change of government.

A personal note to David Cunliffe

Labour’s focus on the “Best Start” policy – whilst flawed at it’s release – was an excellent kick-off to the 2014 Election Campaign. In effect Labour and the Greens have set the agenda for this election.

The economy is no longer an election issue – things are bubbling along nicely, according to media reports.

The so-called economic “boom” will be to National’s undoing, as voters expect more to be spent on education, health, housing, and alleviating chronic child poverty. After six years of demanding “where is the money coming from”, National will find itself with a higher tax-take and then explaining why programmes such as universal food-in-schools is still “unaffordable”.

My strongest advice to David Cunliffe is to follow up on the focus on children. With child poverty a massive millstone around this nation’s collective neck, it is a growing social disaster from which we cannot escape unless addressed.

Please, Mr Cunliffe – announce to the Nation at the next appropriate policy release, that when you lead the next government later this year, that you will take on the role of Minister for Children.

Nothing will send a clearer message to the electorate that you are giving this matter the highest priority.

Nothing.

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References

TV3: 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Peters as kingmaker

Previous related blogpost

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua) (12 December 2013)

Latest Roy Morgan poll bad news for National (30 January 2014)

Other Blogs

Robert Guyton:  Cobbling together a coalition – Key

The Standard: Latest TV3 poll

The Standard: Dear RadioNZ – the largest party does not necessarily win the election

The Dim Post:  Brief thoughts on the TV3 poll

The Daily Blog: Brothers & Sisters of the left, there is no joy in TV3s latest poll

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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen

This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 3 February 2014.

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