Radio NZ: Politics with Matthew Hooton and Mike Williams – 10 February 2014

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– Politics on Nine To Noon –

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– Monday 10 February 2014 –

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– Kathryn Ryan, with Matthew Hooton & Mike Williams –

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Today on Politics on Nine To Noon,

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Click to Listen: Politics with Matthew Hooton and Mike Williams (22′ 58″ )

• John Key’s meeting with Tony Abbott
• CER,  Aussie supermarkets boycotting NZ-made goods
• migration to Australia
• low wages, minimum wage
• National Party, Keith Holyoake
• paid parental leave, Working for Families, Colin Espiner
• Waitangi Day, Foreshore & Seabed, deep sea oil drilling, Nga Puhi
• MMP, “coat tailing”, Epsom, Conservative Party, ACT
• Len Brown, Auckland rail link

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Twelve days to go!

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Twelve days till the Dr Who Symphony! Woohoo!

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New Clothing Standards set by National Party

The National Party has set a new standard how it expects the lower classes to dress. National ministers Anne  Tolley and Party-leader-in-waiting, Judith Collins, began with this sexist attack on Green Party co-leader, Metiria Turei,

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Obviously, Tories cannot abide poor folk and their elected representatives becoming ‘uppity’ and above their ‘station’ in life. This public excoriation of  Ms Turei is the Tory way of telling some stroppy “n—-r” to get back in line.

All dressed up as “political argy-bargy”, to make it seem like Parliamentary business-as-usual.

The Tories won’t be happy until Turei (and poor folk)  dress accordingly,

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(Note; the above examples of Dress Standards for Poor People is a guide only. The National Party suggests sack-cloth, grass skirts, and rags are always fashionable amongst the down-and-out. Nudity is fine – especially for comely females in the presence of male National MPs. Any unemployed poor person wearing shoes – of any description – will be immediatly means-tested and their benefit halved. Obviously they are receiving far too much if they can afford shoes.)

Next chapter in National Party policy: How changing the flag will raise 250,000 children out of poverty (but not too far out of poverty)

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References

Radio NZ: PM says ministers not bullying Turei

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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen

This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 1 February 2014.

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TV3 Polling and some crystal-ball gazing

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The latest TV3-ReidResearch poll confirms what many are beginning to accept as a growing reality; unless Labour (or the Greens) have a major stumble, there will be a change of government at the end of the year. The only caveat to this is the unpredictable Winston Peters.

Normally, I place little faith in polls other than the Roy Morgan poll (and of course, the only poll that counts: election day) because none of the other pollsters call cellphones. As the Census showed last year, only “85.5% of households had access to a landline telephone at home, down from 91.6% in 2006″.

This means that 14.5% of households did not have access to a landline.

That is quite a chunk of the electorate. Especially when indications are that this year’s election will be a close result between the Left and Right bloc.

Because Roy Morgan is the only polling company that (currently) calls cellphones as well as landlines, it is more accurate than companies that call only the latter.

What makes the TV3-Reid Research poll so interesting is that, this time, it seems to mirror the last Roy Morgan poll taken between 6 January  to 19 January, 2014.

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	Roy Roy Morgan poll 6 – 19 January 2014	TV3 – Reid Research Poll 2 February 2014
Right Bloc
National	43.5%	44.05%
Maori Party	2.00%	1.00%
Conservative Party	2.50%	2.10%
ACT	0.00%	0.00%
United Future/Peter Dunne	0.50%	0.00%
Left Bloc
Labour	33.50%	33.50%
Greens	12.50%	12.40%
Mana	0.50%	0.30%
Wild Card
NZ First	4.00%	5.70%

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In both polls, National is losing support, whilst Labour is gaining. (The Greens have lost support in one poll, but gained in another.)

Interestingly, both the Maori Party and Mana poll higher in the Roy Morgan poll. This is unsurprising as the constituents of both parties are more likely to rely solely on cellphone communications rather than landlines, and Roy Morgan is subsequently better placed to poll these voters.

As I wrote on 30 January, though NZ First polled at 4% in the Roy Morgan poll – just under the 5% threshold – this blogger believes Peters will pull his Party up, and return to Parliament. (The only qualifyer to this is if the public are sufficiently  spooked by Peters’ continuing refusal to indicate which Bloc he will support, post-election.)

The TV3 Reid Research poll seems to back this up, though it remains to be seen if this burst in support will be reflected in the next (more accurate) Roy Morgan polling.

Regardless, this blogger believes that NZ First will be returned to Parliament, with between 5% to 7% Party Vote.

National will continue to bleed support as Labour and the Greens present a credible alternative to National’s ad hoc spending decisions (giving money to billion dollar corporations whilst cutting back on public services).

Other factors that will impact on National’s poll rating,

• rising mortgage interest rates – estimated to reach 7% to 8%
• rising fuel prices as the global economy picks up, and the demand for oil increases
• a bounce upward in unemployment, as businesses attempt to cut costs by reducing staff
• an on-going shortage of affordable housing
• young New Zealanders forced out of the housing market, due to National’s sign-off on Reserve Bank policies
• continuing wages lagging behind CPI increases
• worsening balance of payments and another credit downgrade by Standard & Poors, Moodies, and/or Fitch

In desperation, expect National to,

• Do deals with Act and the Conservatives
• Cosy up to NZ First
• Engage in more beneficiary-bashing
• Engage in more personal attacks on Labour, Green, and Mana MPs
• Whaleoil to release nasty ‘dirt’ on various Opposition MPs
• Suddenly find money to spend on worthy public services
• Hint at a further round of tax cuts

Barring any more major screw-ups by Labour (or by the Greens), we are on course (as this blogger has been predicting since 2011) for a change of government.

A personal note to David Cunliffe

Labour’s focus on the “Best Start” policy – whilst flawed at it’s release – was an excellent kick-off to the 2014 Election Campaign. In effect Labour and the Greens have set the agenda for this election.

The economy is no longer an election issue – things are bubbling along nicely, according to media reports.

The so-called economic “boom” will be to National’s undoing, as voters expect more to be spent on education, health, housing, and alleviating chronic child poverty. After six years of demanding “where is the money coming from”, National will find itself with a higher tax-take and then explaining why programmes such as universal food-in-schools is still “unaffordable”.

My strongest advice to David Cunliffe is to follow up on the focus on children. With child poverty a massive millstone around this nation’s collective neck, it is a growing social disaster from which we cannot escape unless addressed.

Please, Mr Cunliffe – announce to the Nation at the next appropriate policy release, that when you lead the next government later this year, that you will take on the role of Minister for Children.

Nothing will send a clearer message to the electorate that you are giving this matter the highest priority.

Nothing.

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References

TV3: 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Peters as kingmaker

Previous related blogpost

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua) (12 December 2013)

Latest Roy Morgan poll bad news for National (30 January 2014)

Other Blogs

Robert Guyton:  Cobbling together a coalition – Key

The Standard: Latest TV3 poll

The Standard: Dear RadioNZ – the largest party does not necessarily win the election

The Dim Post:  Brief thoughts on the TV3 poll

The Daily Blog: Brothers & Sisters of the left, there is no joy in TV3s latest poll

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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen

This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 3 February 2014.

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Latest Roy Morgan Poll – the Left has a Sh*tload of Work ahead of it!

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The latest Roy Morgan poll is not good news for the Progressive Left, with National regaining much the the loss it suffered in the last few polls, and up 3.5 percentage points since January figures. Labour and the Greens have dropped 0.5 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.

In the chart below, the most recent Roy Morgan poll (January 20 – February 2, 2014) is compared to a recent TV3-Reid Research poll and previous Roy Morgan poll (6 – 19 January 2014);

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	Roy  Morgan poll 6 – 19 January 2014	TV3 – Reid Research Poll 2 February 2014	Roy Morgan poll – 20 Jan – 2 Feb 2014
Right Bloc
National	43.5%	44.05%	47.00%
Maori Party	2.00%	1.00%	1.50%*
Conservative Party	2.50%	2.10%	1.50%
ACT	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
United Future/Peter Dunne	0.50%	0.00%	0.00%
Left Bloc
Labour	33.50%	33.50%	33.00%
Greens	12.50%	12.40%	11.00%
Mana	0.50%	0.30%	1.00%
Wild Cards
NZ First	4.00%	5.70%	4.50%
Internet Party	–	–	0.50%

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For the First time, Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party is registering in a Poll. At 0.5%, it polls higher than both United Future and ACT. But unless it wins an electorate seat (unlikely), it will not gain representation in Parliament.

Tracking Roy Morgan’s polling;

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In their formal press release, Gary Morgan said,

“The resurgence for National comes as Prime Minister John Key has raised the possibility of a referendum on changing the New Zealand Flag coinciding with this year’s election. Key made the point that Canada, which changed its national flag in 1965 to a maple leaf, had never regretted its decision to remove the Union Jack.

“However, despite this week’s improvement for National the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand December Quarter employment statistics show 19.8% (up 2.7% since the September Quarter) of New Zealanders are unemployed or under-employed. A total of 519,000 New Zealanders (up 69,000). For John Key and National to retain their current lead and stand a good chance of re-election at the end of the year, further reforms are needed to reduce labour market regulation and provide real opportunity for the more than half a million New Zealanders looking for work or looking for more work to find gainful employment.”

Which just goes to show; never under-estimate politicians and their tax-payer funded media strategists ability to manipulate the public.

On a discordant note, Gary Morgan’s reference to “further reforms are needed to reduce labour market regulation” is odd, considering that New Zealand’s labour laws are amongst the most de-regulated and liberal in the OECD. It would be hard to see what Morgan is referring to other than doing away with the minimum wage; all remaining health and safety laws; and banning Unions entirely? Bizarre.

Note: Taken between 20 January and  2 February 2014, the poll was conducted through  calling 846 respondents, both on landline and mobile telephones. Currently, Roy Morgan is the only polling company that calls cellphones as well as landlines.

The previous Roy Morgan poll was conducted by calling  1,509 respondents, As such, the lower figure of respondents may be a factor in National’s “improving” fortunes? (Or else, people just liked talking about the flag…)

One thing is for certain;  Labour, Green, and Mana supporters  are going to have to work bloody hard to effect a change in government this year. It’s going to be a tough year!

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References

NZ Parliament: Unemployment and employment statistics: the Household Labour Force Survey in context

TV3: 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Peters as kingmaker

Roy Morgan: National (47%) regains lead from Labour/ Greens (44%)

Previous related blogposts

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua) (12 December 2013)

Roy Morgan Poll: Unemployment and Under-employment up in New Zealand!

TV3 Polling and some crystal-ball gazing

Latest Roy Morgan poll bad news for National

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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen

This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 7 February 2014.

* The original blogpost on The Daily Blog contained an erroneous entry for The Conservative Party under the “Roy Morgan poll – 20 Jan – 2 Feb 2014” category. The actual figure is 1.5% (as shown here), and not 2.5%. My stuff up. (Hat-tip: Weka)

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