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Only four years too late – TVNZ-Colmar Brunton catch up with The Daily Blog
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Four years ago, this blogger pointed out that then-existing polling methodologies – relying solely on landline respondents – was flawed. The 2013 Census had revealed a significant ‘chunk’ of the population had surrendered access to landlines, in favour of cellphone/smartphone usage.
In March 2013, this blogger pointed out that the 2013 Census contained this question;
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Part of the problem are anecdotal stories that many low income families, students, transients, etc, no longer rely on landlines and use only cellphones. Polling companies do not call cellphones – only landlines. (A low-income family living not far from us fits this demographic group perfectly; no landline; cellphones only. The sole-parent head of the household votes Labour.)
This year’s census has an interesting question; Question 17,
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The question asks the respondent to “mark as many spaces as you need to show which of these are available here in this dwelling”.
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Out of all polling companies, only Roy Morgan recognised changing usage of modern technology by actively calling cellphones to reach respondants.
As if to underscore this new reality, in September 2013, even this blogger was contacted by Roy Morgan. Questions ranged from legalisation of cannabis; political party support; travelling; radio station preference; social issues; etc.
Clearly Stats NZ wanted to determine the extent to which cellphone penetration of households had supplanted landlines.
In December 2013, Statistics NZ released the data gleaned from Question 17 (see above). The results confirmed suspicions that political pollsters (aside from Roy Morgan) was not reaching a sizeable number of New Zealanders, and polling numbers were being skewed;
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Yesterday (3 December 2013), Statistics NZ released the result of that question. The impact on political polling firms and their methodologies will no doubt be considerable;
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Three-quarters of households now have Internet access
- Internet access at home continued to rise, at 76.8 percent in 2013, compared with 60.5 percent in 2006 and 37.4 percent in 2001.
- Cellphone access also increased, with 83.7 percent of households in 2013 having access to a cellphone at home, compared with 74.2 percent in 2006.
- Access to a landline telephone decreased. In 2013, 85.5 percent of households had access to a landline telephone at home, down from 91.6 percent in 2006.
- Fax access decreased. In 2013, 14.6 percent of households had access to a fax, down from 26.0 percent in 2006.
- A small percentage of households (1.6 percent or 24,135 households) did not have access to any telecommunication systems at home. That is, they did not have a landline telephone, cellphone, Internet access, or a fax.
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As I pointed out in that same blogpost;
Note that only “85.5% of households had access to a landline telephone at home, down from 91.6% in 2006”.
This means that 14.5% of households did not have access to a landline.
Almost precisely four years later, TVNZ had caught up. On 8 December, TVNZ’s political editor, Corin Dann wrote;
“ It was a shock 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll back in July showing Labour on just 24 per cent that prompted Mr Little to make an on-camera admission to me that he had considered resigning.
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For me personally as Political Editor, the Andrew Little poll story is a very important reminder of the responsibility the media has, along with our polling companies, in presenting accurate polls and ensuring the methods we use are as good as they can possibly be.
As Andrew Little well knows, polls really matter.”
Dann went on to announce;
“ So it’s with that sense of responsibility – as well as a look to the future – that 1 NEWS and Colmar Brunton have now decided it is time to change our polling methodology.
In future we will no longer just poll telephone landlines. It will be a 50/50 split of mobiles and landlines.”
In explanation, he added;
“… during the course of the past year we at 1 NEWS, along with Colmar Brunton, felt it was right to start exploring whether adding mobile phones was prudent, given the rapid changes we are seeing in communication habits.
The fact is, landlines are no longer used by as many people. The best information we have on this is Census data from 2013 which confirms only 86 percent of households had a landline compared to 92 percent in 2006.”
Only four years late.
Perhaps this story illustrates that blogs – whilst not funded or otherwise resourced as richly as mainstream media – can be far more “nimble on their feet” when it comes to picking up, analysing, and commenting on developing trends.
For the second time, a blogger has red-flagged an issue that was belatedly picked up by the msm;
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The mainstream media – or at least one clever journalist working for Mediaworks/Newshub – has finally caught up with a story broken by this blogger last year that unemployment data from Statistics NZ was no longer reliable;
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It pays to keep an eye on blogs such as The Standard, No Right Turn, The Daily Blog, et al. The old saying holds true;
You heard it hear first, folks!
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References
Stats NZ: 2013 Census QuickStats about national highlights – Phone and Internet access
Mediaworks/Newshub: Unemployment – Bad news NZ, it’s much worse than you think
Additional
The Spinoff: The first big poll for ages is due. What would be a good result for Labour?
Mediaworks: Patrick Gower – Newshub’s poll is vital and correct
Previous related blogposts
Mr Morgan phoned (2013)
Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (2013)
Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua) (2013)
MSM catches up on Unemployment stats rort
Roy Morgan poll confirms blogger’s prediction – National is in freefall
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This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 10 December 2017.
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Letter to the editor – How much will a ‘free’ trade deal with Sth Korea cost us?
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from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com>
to: NZ Herald <letters@herald.co.nz>
date: Mon, Mar 23, 2015
subject: Letter to the editor.
The editor
NZ Herald
.On 23 March, John Key and Tim Groser signed a “free” trade agreement with South Korea (before Key scooted back to New Zealand to prop up National’s lame-duck candidate in the Northland by-election).
Key tried his best to push for the benefits of the NZ-Korea FTA by claiming;
“At the moment, New Zealand exports into Korea attract $229 million a year in duties. Tariff reductions in the first year of the FTA alone will save an estimated $65 million.”
It may well “save” exporters $65 million in tariffs.
But how many jobs will it create?
Before New Zealand opened it’s borders to imports from low-wage economies, our unemployment was much lower. In 1981, the Five Yearly Census showed unemployment numbering at 60,258.
Thirtytwo years later, after trade liberalisation; abolition of tariffs; and other so-called “free” trade initiatives, the 2013 Census showed unemployment to number at 153,210 – two and a half times more than the early 1980s.
Perhaps it is just as well that we have cheap goods pouring in from China and elsewhere. We certainly have more unemployed to purchase them.
-Frank Macskasy
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[Address and phone number supplied]
References
TV3 News: NZ signs Korea free trade agreement
1983 New Zealand Yearbook – Unemployment
2013 Census QuickStats about national highlights
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Letter to the Editor: Business Roundtable up to their old tricks?
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More right-wing nuttery…
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But who is the “NZ Initiative”?
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FROM: "f.macskasy" SUBJECT: Letters to the editor DATE: Thu, 01 May 2014 10:39:22 +1200 TO: "Sunday News" <editor@sunday-news.co.nz>.
The editor Sunday News Dr Bryce Wilkinson, recently authored a report for the so-called "NZ Initiative", calling for more unrestricted "investment" in New Zealand - specifically allowing foreign property speculators unfettered right to buy up housing. At a time of falling home ownership - 49.8% in 2013; 53.2% in 2006; 67.8% in 2001; 70.7% in 1996; and 73.8% in 1991 (Statistics NZ) - the last thing we need is for New Zealanders to be competing against well-financed, wealthy speculators from overseas. In effect, we are denying our own children the right to own their own home. So who, precisely, is "NZ Initiative" and what is their agenda? "NZ Initiative" is the Business Roundtable, rebranded, when the BRT and right-wing think tank, New Zealand Institute, merged in 2012. I guess that puts things into perspective that this is the same group of well-heeled oligarchs who would sell New Zealand to the highest bidder from Boston, Berlin, or Beijing. It is high time to put an end to this neo-liberal dogma which has benefitted a small minority, leaving the rest of us to pick up the scraps.After 30 years of "rogernomics", I think it's safe to say that the Great Experiment in neo-liberalism has been a spectacular failure. -Frank Macskasy [Address & phone number supplied]
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References
Fairfax media: NZ needs foreign money – NZ Initiative
NZ Herald: Census 2013: Property ownership keeps falling
Statistics NZ: Owner-Occupied Households
Wikipedia: NZ Initiative
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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes
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Roy Morgan Poll: Unemployment and Under-employment up in New Zealand!
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A new Roy Morgan poll has un-employment in New Zealand steady at 8.5%, with a further 11.3% under-employed. Collectively, 19.8% of the workforce (519,000, up 69,000) were either unemployed or under-employed. For the December Quarter 2013, according to Roy Morgan:
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By contrast, the last Household Labour Force Survey (September 2013 quarter) reported 6.2% unemployed, and the 2013 Census survey gave a figure of 7.1%.
Gary Morgan, of Roy Morgan said,
“The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand December Quarter 2013 employment figures show New Zealand unemployment at 8.5% (unchanged from September Quarter 2013). However, New Zealand under-employment – those working part-time but looking for more work – has jumped to a record high 11.3% (up 2.7%). It should be noted that this is the fourth year in a row that under-employment has increased in the December Quarter. However, this year’s increase is substantially larger than in previous years and must represent a major concern for Prime Minister John Key seeking re-election.
“This means a total of 19.8% (up 2.7%) New Zealanders are either unemployed or under-employed – almost identical to the figure earlier last year in the March Quarter 2013 of 19.9%. Total New Zealand unemployment and under-employment is also significantly higher than when Prime Minister John Key won the 2011 Election (19.0%). Key clearly needs to reduce unemployment and under-employment during 2014 to have a strong chance of winning re-election to a third term in November.”
Bearing in mind that Statistics NZ defines being employed as anyone working one hour or more, per week, whether paid or unpaid, and it becomes apparent as to why unemployment/employment statistics in this country are skewed towards the low end. Statistics NZ is simply not presenting us with a real picture of unemployment.
This, of course, suits governments of either hue, whether National or Labour-led.
Roy Morgan further explained how their polling was conducted;
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying a New Zealand-wide cross section by telephone. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when.
The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in New Zealand. The Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews.
Households selected for the Statistics New Zealand Labour Survey are interviewed each quarter for up to two years (eight interviews), with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each quarter. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
Statistics New Zealand classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they had actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week and were available for work or had a new job to start within the next four weeks.
Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted. For these reasons the Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.
There is a similar divergence caused in Australia’s ABS Unemployment estimates and the Roy Morgan Australian Unemployment estimates. Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan’s concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate are clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.”
No doubt National/ACT supporters will find little joy in these figures and will casually dismiss them as unreliable or some other reason.
But one suspects they will sing a different tune when a Labour-led government is installed later this year, and Roy Morgan polling continues to show higher-than-official unemployment statistics.
At that point the Right will suddenly “discover” Roy Morgan.
Note: The Household Labour Force Survey for the December 2013 quarter was released on 5 February 2014.
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References
NZ Parliament: Unemployment and employment statistics: the Household Labour Force Survey in context
Roy Morgan: New Zealand real unemployment steady at 8.5% and a further 11.3% (up 2.7%) of workforce are under-employed
Roy Morgan: Roy Morgan measures real unemployment in Australia not the “perception” of unemployment
Statistics NZ: 2013 Census QuickStats about national highlights
Statistics NZ: Household Labour Force Survey: September 2013 quarter
Statistics NZ: Definitions – About the Household Labour Force Survey
Radio NZ: Unemployment rate falls as more give up job hunt
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Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen
This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 5 February 2014.
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The REAL level of unemployment…
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Current unemployment/employment statistics provided by Statistics NZ through the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) have been called into question with the release of poll data from two other sources.
Current HLFS stats have unemployment falling to its current level of 6.2% – from a height of 7.3% last year,
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The HLFS stats appear to put a positive, downward ‘spin’ on New Zealand’s unemployment rates. All good news for the current National-led government that is desperate for good news as it faces an election next year – and probable defeat.
However, on 5 December, Roy Morgan released the shock results of an nationwide poll, showing unemployment as well as under-employment much higher than the Household Labour Force Survey has been reporting,
“New Zealand unemployment was 8.5% (down 0.3% since the June Quarter 2013) of the 2,629,000 in the NZ workforce – an estimated 223,000 (down 5,000) were unemployed and looking for work.
A further 8.6% (down 1%) of the workforce* were under-employed – that is working part-time but looking for more work – 227,000 (down 23,000) New Zealanders.
In total 17.1% of the workforce (450,000, down 28,000) New Zealanders were either unemployed or under-employed.
The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 8.5% is now 2.3% above the 6.2% currently quoted by Statistics New Zealand for the September Quarter 2013.“
Curiously, this poll result was not reported (as far as this blogger can determine) by any mainstream media.
A subsequent report – again released by Statistics NZ – revealed the Census 2013 results on unemployment. The results were once again higher than the HLFS,
- There were 2,001,006 employed adults (people aged 15 years and over) in 2013. Those who were employed made up 62.3 percent of adults, down from 65.0 percent in 2006.
- Unemployment increased since 2006, but was slightly lower than in 2001. The unemployment rates for the last three censuses were:
- 2013 – 7.1 percent
- 2006 – 5.1 percent
- 2001 – 7.5 percent.
- Unemployment was higher for the 15–24 year age group than for the labour force overall. In 2013, the unemployment rate for this age group was 18.4 percent.
The Census survey not only revealed that unemployment is much higher than the HLFS (7.1%, instead of 6.2%), but that youth unemployment was 18.4% – an increase from the 2006 Census result of 13.3%.
The data table below tells the full story,
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Not only are the 2013 Census result and HLFS at odds with each other , but made a damning indictment on the National-led government prior to 2000. Unemployment in the 2001 Census is shown at 7.5% – a legacy of the Bolger/Shipley administrations of the 1990s.
As a side-note, the Census confirmed the decline of manufacturing with 29,472 (13.5%) fewer people currently employed in this industry than in 2006.
Interestingly, whilst HLFS unemployment for March 2006 is reported by Statistics NZ to be 4%,
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– the 2006 Census gave a higher result of 5.1% (see above table). The Census results appear to be consistently higher than the HLFS – and most likely more accurate.
The implications of this are not hard to miss; unemployment (and under-employment) are much worse than we have realised.
Not only is this a drag on our economy (like a ship at sea dragging it’s anchor along the ocean-bottom, and wondering why it can’t pick up speed) – but the social consequences must be enormous.
More than ever, this should serve as a wake-up call to any government with a modicum of common sense that allowing job-creation to be left to the “free market” is fraught with uncertainty at best – and a massive failure at worst.
We have listened to 30 years of promises from successive politicians that the neo-liberal model will provide more jobs; higher pay; and growth.
None of those promises have eventuated and on top of which, as former Assistant Auditor-General Bruce Anderson stated in his report, Public Sector Financial Sustainability”,
“Kiwis also feel good about themselves. New Zealand rates highly for tolerance, interpersonal trust and life satisfaction, the report says. That is just as well because the country probably needs that “social capital” to offset the negatives faced by the economy.
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Those include increasing income inequality, with New Zealand one of the least equal in terms of market income in the OECD from one of the most equal 30 years ago. The country also shows disturbing social trends, including high youth suicide, teen fertility and unemployment.”
In the same report, Anderson also referred to private borrowing ballooning to 140% of GDP (thanks to massive borrowing from overseas to finance our penchant for property speculation) whilst at the same time our economic performance was mediocre.
If we are to re-build a fairer society where everyone who wants can find work; good wages for a good day’s work; and an opportunity to own our home, then the economic model we have been pursuing must change.
For clues to the change we so desperately need, the Christchurch Re-build has offered us one.
Canterbury (along with Auckland) has bucked the trend in terms of reducing unemployment,
The Household Labour Force Survey, released today, shows employment in the Canterbury region rose by 2100 people, an increase of 0.6 percent.
Unemployment figures for the region decreased by 4000 people or 21.3 percent, most of which came from men who showed a decrease of 3800 unemployed.
Overall the Canterbury unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in the March quarter.
If, after 30 years, the Rogernomics experiment has not delivered the results we were promised – just how long will we have to wait?
Just how long does it take to learn a lesson if we keep repeating the same mistakes, year after year, decade after decade?
Because really, 153,210 people would like an answer.
Meanwhile, as a reminder to us all,
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Are we there yet?
This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 13 December 2013.
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Sources
TV1: Budget 2011 – Govt predicts 170,000 new jobs (19 May 2011)
TV1 News: KiwiRail under fire over job cuts (9 June 2011)
NZ Herald: Unemployment up to 7.3pc – a 13 year high (8 Nov 2012)
TV3: Canterbury employment rate rises (9 May 2013)
NBR: NZ’s first world aspirations based on economy ‘harvesting water’ (6 June 2013)
Statistics NZ: Household Labour Force Survey: September 2013 quarter (6 Nov 2013)
Roy Morgan: New Zealand real unemployment down 0.3% to 8.5% and a further 8.6% (down 1%) of workforce are under-employed (5 Dec 2013)
References
Trading Economics: New Zealand Unemployment Rate
Previous related blogposts
Can we do it? Bloody oath we can!
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Census, Surveys, and Cellphones…
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Three polls in February (2013) yielded two distinctly different results.
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Roy Morgan 13 Feb 2013 |
TVNZ/Colmar Brunton 17 Feb 2013 |
Fairfax/Ipsos Poll 20 Feb 2013 |
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| Right bloc: | |||
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National |
44% (-2%) |
49% (+5%) |
44.9% (-1.3) |
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Maori Party |
0.5% (-1%) |
1% (n/c) |
1.3% (-.01%) |
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ACT NZ |
0.5% (n/c) |
.01% (-0.5%) |
.04% (+.04%) |
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United Future |
0% (n/c) |
.02% (-0.3%) |
.01% (-.01%) |
| Left bloc: | |||
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Labour |
34.5% (+3%) |
33% (-2%) |
36.3% (+1.9%) |
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Greens |
13.5% (n/c) |
11% (-2%) |
10.7% (+.02%) |
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Mana Party |
0.5% (n/c) |
1% (n/c) |
1.4% (+.08%) |
| Other: | |||
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NZ First |
4% (-1.5%) |
4% (n/c) |
2.8% (-1%) |
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Conservative Party |
2% (+1.5%) |
1% (n/c) |
1.6% (.02%) |
n/c = no change
At the previous election, National was consistantly polling high – in the low-to-mid 50s. Their election result was actually 47.31%, several percentage points out from polling figures from Roy Morgan, Colmar Brunton, and Media Research,
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Roy Morgan 24 Nov 2011 |
TVNZ/Colmar Brunton 24 Nov 2011* |
Fairfax/Media Research 23 Nov 2011 |
2011 Election results |
Closest Polling result |
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| Right bloc: | |||||
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National |
49.5% |
50% |
54% |
47.31% |
Roy Morgan |
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Maori Party |
1% |
2.0% |
1.1% |
1.43% |
Media Research |
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ACT NZ |
1.5% |
1.7% |
0.7% |
1.07% |
Media Research |
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United Future |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
Roy Morgan |
| Left bloc: | |||||
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Labour |
23.5% |
28% |
26% |
27.48% |
Colmar Brunton |
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Greens |
14.5% |
10% |
12% |
11.06% |
Media Research |
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Mana Party |
0.5% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
1.08% |
Media Research |
| Other: | |||||
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NZ First |
6.5% |
4.2% |
4% |
6.59% |
Roy Morgan |
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Conservative Party |
n/r |
2.4% |
n/r |
2.65% |
Colmar Brunton |
n/r = no result provided
As the chart above shows, polling figures were all over the place. Roy Morgan called it closest for the result for National – but under-reported for Labour.
Colmar Brunton called it closest for Labour.
Whilst at the same time, Media Research was way out for National – 6.69 percentage points off the mark – over twice the margin of error (3.1%) for that poll. (see: Gap closes as election looms – poll)
None of the polling companies were consistent in their results and all over-polled National. Only one pollster over-polled for Labour.
Part of the problem are anecdotal stories that many low income families, students, transients, etc, no longer rely on landlines and use only cellphones. Polling companies do not call cellphones – only landlines. (A low-income family living not far from us fits this demographic group perfectly; no landline; cellphones only. The sole-parent head of the household votes Labour.)
This year’s census has an interesting question; Question 17,
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The question asks the respondent to “mark as many spaces as you need to show which of these are available here in this dwelling”.
What will prove interesting is not whether or not “a cellphone/mobile” is marked – but how many households will mark “a telephone”.
This will finally give us a clearer understanding what percentage of households do not have a landline.
If the numbers of households without a landline are significant (+/- 10%), then polling companies will either have to adjust their polling techniques – or be rendered useless. Without factoring in cellphone-only households, polling companies risk becoming an expensive ‘parlour game’ with little value.
One option is to return to the days of door-knocking pollsters. It’s an expensive option, but may be more reliable than phoning people on landlines.
This blogger keenly anticipates Statistics NZ releasing poll results on Question 17. It’s impact on politics in this country may be greater than we realise.
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