Latest Roy Morgan poll – wholly predictable results and no reason to panic

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The latest Roy Morgan poll reports a surge in support for National – up 8.5% to 54% – one of the highest rises since October 2011, according to Australian-based the polling company.

Labour and the Greens have suffered a corresponding drop in support;

National: 54% (+ 8.5%)

Labour: 25.5% (-2%)

Green Party: 10.5% (- 3%)

NZ First: NZ First 6% (- 2.5%)

Maori Party: 1% (-0.5%)

ACT: 1% (n/c)

United Future: nil (n/c)

Mana Party: nil (n/c)

Conservative Party: 1% (n/c)

Undecideds were up one percentage-point to 5%.

However, the results should be seen in the context that the poll was conducted in the lead up to, and during, the 2015 Budget, delivered on 21 May.

In fact, National’s polling rises during each Budget event, only to drop back down as media  attention  and political hype subsides. The charts below show the correlation between Budget events and the days/weeks leading up to each Budget Night, where National drip-feeds positive news stories to the public, via media;

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The ‘spike’ in National’s support will begin to abate, as on previous occassions.

As housing prices continue to escalate, and child poverty continues to be a major problem in our society, the public will once again focus on what – if anything – National is doing to alleviate them.

On top of which will be a growing feeling that if English fails to deliver a Budget surplus next year, then National’s talk of tax cuts becomes more and more an absurdity. This seems more than likely according to various commentators, as next year’s surplus has already been pared back from $565 million to $176 million.

National got away with promises of tax cuts in 2008, even as the Global Financial Crisis was impacting on our economy. But at that stage, the Great Recession had not yet hit with full force. Unemployment in 2008 was still only 4.3% and the Clark-led Labour government had paid down most of the country’s sovereign debt.

By contrast, unemployment is now at 5.8% and the country is around $65 billion in debt. (Net core crown debt is forecast to be $61.7 billion by 30 June, up  $1.7 billion from last year.)

Faced with the Four Horsemen of the Fiscal Apocalyspse of another Budget deficit;  higher debt; broken promise of tax cuts; and a runaway housing crisis in Auckland – National’s undeserved reputation as a “prudent manager of the economy” begins to look every bit as shabby as what Muldoon left the country.

By 2017, even a Budget event may not be sufficient to give National a boost in the polls.

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References

Roy Morgan Poll:  May 25 2015

NBR: Budget 2015 – NZ credit ratings unaffected by government’s 2015 budget

Additional

Fairfax media: Budget 2015 – An idiot’s guide

 

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This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 26 May 2015.

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