Latest Roy Morgan Poll: next govt too close to call?
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The latest Roy Morgan Poll has a dead tie between National and a Labour-Green coalition. Both are currently polling at 45%.
The actual Party figures are as follows;
National-led bloc,
National – 45%
Maori Party* – 1.5%
ACT* – 0%
United Future*** – 0%
Translated into National-led Seats: 54 (N) + 1 UF = 55
Labour-led bloc,
Labour – 30.5%
Greens – 14.5%
Mana*** – 1%
Translated into Labour-led Seats: 37 (L) + 18 (G) + 1 = 56
Wild cards,
Conservative Party** – 2% (nil seats)
NZ First – 5% (6 seats)
Number of respondents who refused to name a Party: 4%.
Assuming that,
- The Conservatives win no seats nor cross the 5% threshold;
- Peter Dunne and Hone Harawira retain their electorate seats but do not win any more, nor increase their Party vote;
- ACT loses Epsom and does not cross the 5% threshold;
- and the Maori Party lose all three seats;
That leaves NZ First as the “King Maker”. And if, as this blogger suspects, Peters may decide to coalesce with National, that would create a repeat of the 1996 Election.
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That coalition deal ended in disaster for Peters And nearly destroyed his Party.
However, things are not quite so simple. Check out the Roy Morgan graph below. Specifically, focus on polling leading up to the 2011 election. Notice how as both Parties campaign, National’s support drops whilst Labour’s rises (1)?
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In between elections, Opposition parties support falls away. In comparison to nightly media coverage for government ministers and policies, Opposition Parties do not gain similar coverage of their policies. Parties like Labour and the Greens are severely restricted to five-second soundbites.
It was only when Labour and the Greens announced the NZ Power policy on 18 April this year that the Labour and Green Parties rose in the polls (2).
Next year’s election should be no different; Opposition Parties support will rise as their policies are put before the public, whilst Government support will fall as voters consider alternatives.
This blogger still predicts that we are on course for a change in government next year and we will be looking at a Labour-Green-Mana Coalition government.
Additional to that, I predict;
- ACT will not win any seats in Parliament and will eventually suffer the same fate as the Alliance Party,
- Peter Dunne will retain his seat by the barest margin. It will be his last term in Parliament,
- Paula Bennett will lose her seat but return on the Party List,
- National will fare badly in Christchurch’s electorates,
- The Conservative Party will not win any seats, electorate or List,
- The Maori Party will lose all three current electorate seats, back to Labour,
- John Key will resign as National’s leader and the following leadership power-struggle between Judith Collins, Steven Joyce, and Bill English will be brutal. Collins will win, with Cameron Slater throwing nasty dirt at Joyce and English,
- If NZ First coalesces with National, expect one or two of it’s MPs to defect or resign from Parliament,
- A new Labour-led coalition will govern for three terms, minimum,
- Collins will be ousted after a dismal showing by National in 2017, and the Party will pull back to a more moderate, centrist position.It will reassert it’s pledge not to sell any further state assets.
Really, politics is more entertaining than any “reality” show on TV.
And as always, Roy Morgan is the only poll that calls cellphones as well as landlines.
* Not expected to survive the 2014 election.
** Not currently represented in Parliament
*** Electorate-based Party only
This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 12 December 2013.
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References
Roy Morgan Poll – 11 December 2013
Previous related blogposts
Another good poll for a LabourGreen government
Census, Surveys, and Cellphones (Part rua)
Census, Surveys, and Cellphones…
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Frankly Speaking... 
Still too close to call. Watch the dirty trickster Steven Joyce reveal the campaign plans, and Labour need to keep a clean pair of heels. No “Len Browns” please, that’s just cannon-fodder for the Tories.
My own predictions
1. Labour will win this election, although National will have the biggest number of seats in parliament. It was always hard for National (or any party, really) to win a third election in a row.
2. National will try to court NZ First, Peters will tell Key to suck eggs.
3. United Future will be goneburgers.
4. At some point in 2014, National will officially admit that the surplus they’ve been “working towards” won’t happen.
5. Collins to become new National leader in 2015 after much blood on the floor; ugly, negative politics from the Gnats ensues rendering them unelectable. English and Joyce both fall off a cliff in terms of party rankings.
6. Christchurch will be largely red.
7. Bennett to take the new Upper Harbour seat, leaving the Conservatives out in the cold.
8. Craig to fail to win any seats.
9. Maori Party only wins 1 seat, Flavell ditches National in a bid to help the party survive. Mana Party retains 1 seat. Labour takes the rest of the Maori seats.
10. ACT will be officially consigned to the dustbins of history. No one will miss them.
Interesting… thanks, Vagabundo. You may be right about the Maori Party winning one seat, whereas I predicted they’d lose all three. Flavell may have a fairly good chance winning his seat back again…
I’d welcome other predictions from other folk as well…
Expect the left to govern for four terms at least; however there could be different coalitions and prime ministers. So National could be out in the cold for fifteen years or more. The National Party itself would be a different political animal to the one we see now. Remember that the National Party was formed in 1938 after an amalgamation of the political right: Liberal Party, Country Party and the rump of the fascists.
David Cunliffe is, unlike David Shearer, very capable of winning an election. However I would still put the blue versus red odds very close to 50/50 at this stage. The problem is that the final outcome of this election will be decided by a handful of factors that are highly uncertain and unpredictable. These are things that you’ve commented on above, but my perspective differs slightly:
– The Conservatives won’t quite hit 5% but I think they have about a 50% chance of getting an electorate seat if they strategise well. National has strongly hinted that they are willing to do a dirty deal to help them out.
– You could be right about Peter Dunne, but it’s been a very bad year for him so I err towards thinking that he’ll lost his seat by a whisker.
– I’d be surprised if the Maori Party lose all their seats, but it’s not a given that they would support National for another term. It has already done them a lot of damage to date.
– Anything could happen with NZ First.
– There is some speculation that Hone Harawera could lose his seat.
I think this is going to be a really fascinating election. I have to say, though, I think those predicting a four term Labour government are delusional. History shows that NZ governments typically last for either two or three terms and there are no extraordinary circumstances in my view that would result in a one or four+ term Labour government.
I think Flavell will campaign like he’s never campaigned before, because the survival of the party depends entirely on his success. He does appear to understand that the Maori Party needs to distance itself from National for them to survive, and I hope that he and Hone can bury the hatchet because there needs to be diverse representation of Maori by Maori in Parliament.
National will always retain that core 20-odd to 30 percent support that the major parties both have. That said, as the way things continue, I wonder how much appetite we collectively will have for big money parties like National after a term or two of a Labour government. I can see National descending into the same sort of farcical mess the American Republican Party has allowed itself to become within a decade.
I can see National descending into the same sort of farcical mess the American Republican Party has allowed itself to become within a decade.
Vagabundo I thought they already had with their arrogance.
I still reckon there is room for a Grand Alliance that includes Labour, Greens and NZ First. Should shut the Tories out for at least 3 terms.
NZ First is too socially conservative to work constructively with the Greens in my view. Witness recent gaffes by Richard Prosser and Asenati Lole-Taylor.
And let’s be honest, Winston doesn’t have the greatest track record when it comes to holding a coalition together in an environment of conflict.
Peters is not to be trusted. End of story.