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2017 – Ongoing jobless tally

21 March 2017 2 comments

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Unemployment logo

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Continued from: 2016 – Ongoing jobless tally

By the numbers, for this year;

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Events

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January

February

March

April

Otago University: unknown

May

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Unemployment Statistics* at a Glance

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(*  See caveat below)

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Caution: Official Unemployment Statistics

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On 29 June 2016, Statistic NZ announced that it would be changing the manner in which it defined a jobseeker. This   so-called “revision”  would materially affect how unemployment stats were counted and reported;

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Change: Looking at job advertisements on the internet is correctly classified as not actively seeking work. This change brings the classification in line with international standards and will make international comparability possible.

Improvement: Fewer people will be classified as actively seeking work, therefore the counts of people unemployed will be more accurate.

The statement went on to explain;

Change in key labour market estimates:

  • Decreases in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate
  • Changes to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate range from 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points. In the most recent published quarter (March 2016), the unemployment rate is revised down from 5.7 percent to 5.2 percent
  • Increases in the number of people not in the labour force
  • Decreases in the size of the labour force and the labour force participation rate

When Statistics NZ ‘re-jigged’ its criteria for measuring unemployment in June, unemployment dropped from 5.7% to 5.2% (subsequently revised again down to 5.1%).

All  unemployment data from Statistics NZ should therefore be treated with caution. Unemployment is  likely to be  much higher than Statistics NZ figures indicate.

 

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References

Statistics NZ: Household Labour Force Survey – Revisions to labour market estimates

Statistics NZ: Labour Market Statistics – June 2016 quarter

Trading Economics: New Zealand Unemployment Rate  to January 2017

Previous related blogpost

Lies, Damned lies and Statistical Lies

National exploits fudged Statistics NZ unemployment figures

Lies, Damned lies and Statistical Lies – ** UPDATE **

2016 – Ongoing jobless tally and why unemployment statistics will no longer be used

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2016 – Ongoing jobless tally and why unemployment statistics will no longer be used

14 November 2016 9 comments

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Unemployment logo

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Continued from: 2015 – Ongoing jobless tally

So by the numbers, for this year;

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Events

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January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

October

November

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Statistics

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This blogger previously reported how Statistics NZ recently implemented a so-called “revision” which would materially affect how unemployment stats were counted and reported;

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statistics-nz-logo

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On 29 June 2016, Statistic NZ announced that it would be changing the manner in which it defined a jobseeker;

Change: Looking at job advertisements on the internet is correctly classified as not actively seeking work. This change brings the classification in line with international standards and will make international comparability possible.

Improvement: Fewer people will be classified as actively seeking work, therefore the counts of people unemployed will be more accurate.

The statement went on to explain;

Change in key labour market estimates:

  • Decreases in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate
  • Changes to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate range from 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points. In the most recent published quarter (March 2016), the unemployment rate is revised down from 5.7 percent to 5.2 percent
  • Increases in the number of people not in the labour force
  • Decreases in the size of the labour force and the labour force participation rate

The result of this change? At the stroke of a pen, unemployment fell from 5.7% to 5.2%;

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nz-unemployment-rate-october-2015-to-october-2016

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And on-cue, National was quick to capitalise on Statistics NZ’s figure-fudging;

On 2/3 July, TV3’s The Nation, Dear Leader Key told Corin Dann;

“The unemployment rate in New Zealand is now falling pretty dramatically.”

On 8 August, Key was quoted on Interest.co.nz;

“On the other side, we need these people in an environment where unemployment is 5.2% and where growth is still very, very strong. You’ve just got to be careful when you play around with these things that you don’t hamstring certain industries that need these workers.”

On 12 August, in Parliament, English also gleefully congratulated himself on the “fall” in unemployment;

“The Reserve Bank is forecasting an increase of about 1 percent more growth in the economy over the next 3 years, compared with what it thought 3 months ago. It is forecasting that unemployment is going to continue falling from 5.2 percent this year to 4.5 percent by 2019 and that job numbers will increase by more than 2 percent on average over the next 2 years. A significant component of that, of course, will be the construction boom, where thousands of houses will be built over the next 2 or 3 years. These forecasts are in line with Treasury’s forecast for the labour market and show an economy that is delivering more jobs, lower unemployment, and real increases in incomes when in many developed countries that is not happening.”

The latest Statistics NZ (soon to be re-branded Ministry of Truth) unemployment figures showed another “fall”. The unemployment rate for the September 2016 Quarter is now purportedly 4.9%;

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unemployment-sept-2016-household-labourforce-survey-statistics-nz

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Can that figure – 4.9% – be trusted?

When Statistics NZ “re-jigged” its criteria for measuring unemployment in June, unemployment dropped from 5.7% to 5.2% (subsequently revised again to 5.1%);

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unemployment-june-2016-household-labourforce-survey-statistics-nz

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Predictably, National were quick to once again exploit the September statistics, as their Twitter-feed showed on 2 November;

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national-party-twitter-2-nov-2016-unemployment

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And three days later;

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national-party-twitter-5-nov-2016-unemployment

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It’s all nonsense, of course – made worse by Statistics NZ’s other dodgy criteria used when considering their definition what constitutes being “employed”;

Employed: people in the working-age population who, during the reference week, did one of the following:

  • worked for one hour or more for pay or profit in the context of an employee/employer relationship or self-employment
  • worked without pay for one hour or more in work which contributed directly to the operation of a farm, business, or professional practice owned or operated by a relative

Statistics NZ’s mis-representation of our “low unemployment” environment has gone largely unnoticed and unchallenged. No one in the mainstream media has picked up on the questionable data;

This meant the size of the labour force rose 33,000 and unemployment fell by just 3,000 to 128,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% from a revised 5.0% in the June quarter. This was the lowest unemployment rate since the December quarter of 2008. Unemployment has fallen by 7,000 over the last year and is up 1,000 from two years ago.Interest.co.nz

Unemployment has fallen below 5 percent for the first time in nearly eight years thanks to the growing economy, but it is still not translating into booming wages. Official figures show the unemployment rate declined to 4.9 percent in the three months to September, or 128,000 people, the lowest rate since December 2008.Radio NZ

According to Statistics New Zealand, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the September 2016 quarter. This is the lowest unemployment rate since the December 2008 quarter. There were 3,000 fewer people unemployed than in the June 2016 quarter and 10,000 fewer over the year.Maori TV

The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 percent for the September 2016 quarter, according to new figures from Statistics NZ. That’s the lowest it’s been since December 2008. – TV3 News

New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell below 5 percent for the first time since December 2008 as employers took on more staff than expected, although that didn’t spur wages to rise at a faster pace. The kiwi dollar rose on the figures. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a revised 5 percent rate in June, Statistics New Zealand said.Sharechat

New Zealand has recorded its best unemployment rate in almost eight years with third quarter figures falling to a better than expected 4.9 per cent. The jobless rate declined from a revised 5.0 per cent in the June quarter, according to Stats NZ, taking it to its lowest point since December 2008. – NZCity/NZ News

New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell below 5 per cent for the first time since December 2008 as employers took on more staff than expected, although that didn’t spur wages to rise at a faster pace. The kiwi dollar rose on the figures.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.9 per cent in the three months ended September 30 from a revised 5 per cent rate in June, Statistics New Zealand said.NZ Herald

New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell more than expected in the third quarter to drop to 4.9 per cent – the lowest rate since last 2008. The jobless rate declined from a revised 5.0 per cent in the June quarter, according to Stats NZ taking it to its lowest point since the December quarter nearly eight years ago. There were 3,000 fewer people unemployed than in the previous quarter and 10,000 fewer over the year. – TVNZ News

Of course there were “3,000 fewer people unemployed than in the previous quarter and 10,000 fewer over the year“! Ten thousand unemployed people vanished from the data, at the click of a mouse, as Statistics NZ worked their “magic”.

Statistics NZ could potentially make unemployment vanish entirely, overnight, by changing the unemployment criteria to people with only two hearts and scaly blue skin.

Only Hamish Rutherford, at Fairfax media, pointed out the questionable value of Statistics NZ’s data;

Unemployment has fallen to the lowest level in almost eight years, as the economy creates more than 10,000 new jobs a month. Official figures show the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9 per cent in the the September quarter, the first time it has fallen below 5 per cent since December 2008.

Earlier this year Statistics New Zealand revised the way it conducts the quarterly household labour force survey (HLFS), in a bid to bring the survey more in line with international standards. However the changes mean Statistics New Zealand cannot make confident comparisons with all of the figures from previous surveys.

But even in Rutherford’s article, the all-important point of dodgy stats was lost amongst the ‘rah-rah‘ of the mythical drop in unemployment.

The Otago Daily Times made an even less impressive, passing, reference to Statistics NZ’s fudged figures;

Unemployment in New Zealand is at its lowest level since 2008 but there will be lingering concerns about the lack of wage growth and the impact this will have on the inflation outlook.

Statistics New Zealand has changed some of its survey data to measure unemployment and employment and those changes are still bedding in.Otago Daily Times

Government Statistician, Liz MacPherson, has rejected any suggestion of political partisanship in the way unemployment data is now being presented.

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She was defensive in the face of criticism from Labour’s Grant Robertson and on  16 August, Ms MacPherson stated;

Like my predecessors I am fiercely protective of the statutory independence of the role of the Government Statistician and strongly refute any assertions made by Grant Robertson that there has been political interference in the production of official statistics.

This independence means that I maintain the right to make changes necessary to ensure the relevance and quality of our official statistics. Changes to the Household Labour Force Survey have been made to ensure that we produce the best possible measure of the current state of the labour market and to maintain consistency with international best practice.

Far from ignoring technological change during the past 30 years, such as the advent of the internet, we are incorporating these changes so as to be technology neutral.

Within the survey questions, to be regarded as actively looking for a job you must do more than simply look at job advertisements, whether it is online or in a newspaper.

It is not uncommon for revisions to be made to official statistics as a result of more accurate information becoming available or changes to international standards and frameworks.

In addition we are introducing new measures – for example underutilisation – enabling a deeper, richer understanding of New Zealand’s labour market.

When this does occur it is standard practice for Statistics NZ to communicate reasons for revisions and anticipated changes well in advance of their official release, as we did on 29 June 2016. […]

Statistics NZ has a legislative obligation to release objective official statistics. We will continue to do this at all times.

One of many ironies not lost on this blogger is that other government departments extoll the virtues of jobseeking on-line. As CareersNZ and WINZ state the blindingly-obvious, “most job vacancies are listed online”;

Careersnz;

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careersnz-use-the-internet

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WINZ;

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work-and-income-where-to-look

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Ms MacPherson’s assertion that Statistics NZ has changed it’s definitions of unemployment and jobseeking  “to maintain consistency with international best practice” is not an acceptable explanation.

If “international best practice” does not recognise on-line jobseeking as constituting a definition of unemployment – then that in itself is worrying and suggests that global unemployment may be much, much higher than current international statistics portray.

As a consequence of Ms MacPherson’s decision to exclude on-line jobseekers from official stats, this blogger concludes that official unemployment data is  severely flawed and unrepresentative of our real unemployment numbers.

In simple terms; the numbers are a sham.

Unemployment statistics will no longer be presented in on-going up-dates of the Jobless Tally.

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This Statement has not been endorsed by MiniTruth (formerly StatsNZ)

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Addendum1: Definition of Employment

Employed: people in the working-age population who, during the reference week, did one of the following:

  • worked for one hour or more for pay or profit in the context of an employee/employer relationship or self-employment

  • worked without pay for one hour or more in work which contributed directly to the operation of a farm, business, or professional practice owned or operated by a relative

  • had a job but were not at work due to: own illness or injury, personal or family responsibilities, bad weather or mechanical breakdown, direct involvement in an industrial dispute, or leave or holiday.

Source

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References

Statistics NZ: Household Labour Force Survey – Revisions to labour market estimates

Scoop media: On The Nation – Patrick Gower interviews John Key

Interest.co.nz: Key deflects calls for migration review; says migration needed with 5.2% unemployment

Scoop media: Parliament – Questions & Answers – 11 August 2016

Statistics NZ: Labour Market Statistics – September 2016 quarter

Statistics NZ: Labour Market Statistics – June 2016 quarter

Twitter: National (2 Nov)

Twitter: National (5 Nov)

Interest.co.nz: Jobs grew 35,000 or 1.4% in Sept quarter, but unemployment fell just 3,000 and jobless rate falls to 4.9%

Radio NZ: Unemployment drops to lowest level since 2008

Maori TV: Work force grows despite youth unemployment

TV3 News: Unemployment drops to lowest rate since 2008

Sharechat: NZ jobless rate falls below 5% for first time since 2008, wage inflation muted

NZCity/NZ News: Jobless rate falls to near eight-year low

NZ Herald: NZ jobless rate falls below 5 per cent for first time since 2008, wage inflation muted

TVNZ News: Unemployment rate falls to near eight-year low

Fairfax media: Unemployment drops to lowest level since 2008 on booming job creation

Otago Daily Times: Unemployment lowest in eight years

Radio NZ: Statistician denies political interference over job seeker figures

Statistics NZ: Government Statistician responds to Grant Robertson

Careersnz: Job hunting tips

Work and Income: Where to look

Additional

TVNZ: Q+A – Interview with John Key

Previous related blogpost

Lies, Damned lies and Statistical Lies

National exploits fudged Statistics NZ unemployment figures

Lies, Damned lies and Statistical Lies – ** UPDATE **

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This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 9 November 2016.

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Letter to the editor – So this is ‘job creation’ by foreign ownership?

25 February 2016 2 comments

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Frank Macskasy - letters to the editor - Frankly Speaking

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This is not the news that towns and regions across the country want to wake up to;

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Shock in Invercargill as meatworks shuts

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The Radio NZ report continues;

Prime Range was taken over 15 months [November 2014] ago by a Chinese-backed company, Lianhua Trading Group, which itself could be troubled.

Its shares had been put into receivership and it had changed directors several times since the deal.

The Meat Workers Union said the firm had run out of money because its investors had been caught up in turmoil on the Chinese stock exchange.

Invercargill MP Sarah Dowie has called on Prime Range to tell its suspended workers what is going on.

Ms Dowie said she had received messages from distraught families and the situation was hard on them.

Work and Income New Zealand was on standby for workers as a safety net, but she hoped issues would be resolved as soon as possible.

No one from the company, nor its directors, returned calls from RNZ News.

I’ll bet that “no one from the company, nor its directors, returned calls from RNZ NewsCountries like China are not noted for engaging with media and explaining what is happening to their workers.

The fate of Prime Range prompted me to share these observations with The Southland Times;

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from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com>
to: The editor <letters@stl.co.nz>
date: Thu, Feb 18, 2016
subject: Letter to the editor

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The editor
Southland Times

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One hundred and thirty workers at Prime Range Meats have been suspended, with no guarantee that they will be able to return to work. This is the fall-out after Prime was purchased by foreign investors in November 2014.

The situation for these 130 workers is dire, with no income, and no money with which to buy food or pay their bills. How they are able to survive is a miracle in itself.

In all this mess, where is Southland’s former MP, Bill English? Despite abdicating his role as MP for Southland, and becoming a sole-List MP in 2014, one would expect that he has at least a moral duty to step in and sort out this mess.

After all, it was Bill English who, in March 2009, said,

“Overseas investment can play an important role in economic recovery and job creation” (Beehive: ‘Government to simplify foreign investment rules’)

In this case, overseas investment has factored in job destruction, putting many Southland families into financial strife.

Bill English needs to step up. He has advocated for foreign investment and takeover of local companies. Now he needs to take responsibility.

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-Frank Macskasy

[address and phone number supplied]

Postscript

In justifying the need for foreign investment, and consequential buy-up of local companies and other assets, Bill English said in Parliament on 13 February 2013;

“…New Zealand has not, for many decades, had sufficient savings to fund all of its own investment.”

Mr English is 100% correct in  this; New Zealand has not had sufficient savings to fund all of its own investment. Not since National abandoned Labour’s superannuation savings scheme in 1975;

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Compulsory super 'would be worth $278b' - fairfax media - National Govt incompetance

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Fortyone years later, we are still paying for National’s short-sightedness and fiscal imprudence.

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References

Radio NZ: Shock in Invercargill as meatworks shuts

Beehive: Hon Bill English

Beehive: Government to simplify foreign investment rules

Parliament: Hansards – Economic Growth and Job Creation – Progress and Foreign Direct Investment

Fairfax media: Compulsory super ‘would be worth $278b’

Additional

Radio NZ: 130 meatworkers wait for news after suspension

Radio NZ: Meat workers in limbo after sudden suspension

Radio NZ: Suspended meatworker’s wife says 130 families are struggling

NZ Herald: Decision lies with farmers, says English

Related blogposts

Kiwis, Cows, and Canadian singers

That was Then, this is Now #10

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This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 20 February 2016.

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2015 – Ongoing jobless tally

7 November 2015 5 comments

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Unemployment logo

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Continued from: 2014 – Ongoing jobless tally

So by the numbers, for this year;

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Events

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January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

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Statistics

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unemployment quarter ending September 2015 - new zealand

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Source

*NB: actual rate for Dec 2014/Jan 2015 Quarter should be 5.7%, not 5.8% as depicted in above column. See Stats NZ data here.
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June 2015 quarter – Employment & Unemployment

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statistic nz - june 2015 quarter - unemployment

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Commentary from Statistics New Zealand:

The unemployment rate increased to 5.9 percent in the June 2015 quarter (up from 5.8 percent), Statistics New Zealand said today. At the same time, there were 7,000 more people employed over the quarter (up 0.3 percent).

“Even though employment grew over the quarter, population growth was greater, which resulted in a lower overall employment rate for New Zealand,” labour market and household statistics manager Diane Ramsay said.

“Despite lower quarterly growth, this is still the 11th consecutive quarter of employment growth, making it the second-longest period of growth since the period between 1992 and 1996,” Ms Ramsay said.

Over the year to June 2015, employment growth was still fairly strong (at 3 percent) with 69,000 more people employed. The manufacturing industry showed the strongest annual employment growth.

“This is the first time since the December 2013 quarter that the construction industry has not been the largest contributor to annual growth in employment,” Ms Ramsay said.

The vast majority of growth was in Auckland (29,600 people), where the annual employment growth was driven by retail trade and accommodation, followed by construction. Bay of Plenty had the second-highest employment growth, with 11,000 more people being employed over the year.

Annual wage inflation, as measured by the labour cost index, was 1.6 percent, compared with annual consumer price inflation of 0.3 percent.

Source

September 2015 quarter – Employment & Unemployment

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statistic nz - september 2015 quarter - unemployment

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Labour market at a glance

  • Number employed fell for the first time in three years.
  • Unemployment rate increased to 6.0 percent.
  • Labour force participation rate falls further from record high in March 2015 quarter.
  • Annual wage inflation remained at 1.6 percent.

Source

Additional analysis;

  1. The Employment Rate fell 0.5%
  2. According to the HLFS, Total actual weekly hours worked increased over the last Quarter by  +0.4, and  Annually, by +1.5

Which means few people are working longer hours to sustain economic growth.

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Other Economic Info

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ANZ Economic Outlook

The New Zealand economy has clearly entered a more challenging period. Growth averaged just a 0.3% quarterly pace over the first six months of the year vis-à-vis a 0.9% quarterly pace over the second half of 2014.

Annual growth slowed to 2.4% in Q2 (the slowest since December 2013) and timelier indicators suggest a pace tracking perhaps a tad below 2% at present; not dire – nor a downturn – but certainly sluggish and consistent with deceleration.

In per-capita terms, activity is treading water and slowing labour demand (but still-strong labour supply growth) has seen the unemployment rate tick up to close to 6% Consumer and business confidence have fallen, and where the expansion was previously relatively broad-based, a more divergent regional performance is now evident.

Full Report here.

CTU Economic Bulletin 173 – Oct 2015

Despite economic growth in production per hour worked which peaked at 4.7 percent in dollar terms in the year to June 2014, wage rises have been subdued. Even the Reserve Bank is commenting on it. What are some of the reasons for wage rises being low?

We have a poorly performing economy. Most of the recent growth has been because more people have been brought into the labour force or people are working longer hours, rather than because people are producing more in each hour they work. Over the supposed “rock star” period of June 2013 to June 2015, the economy’s production per hour worked increased only 0.1 percent. Yet companies’ profit rates are rising quickly – so wages could.

Even the Minister of Finance concedes that current strong net immigration is holding down wages. It could be much better controlled so that, while taking humanitarian concerns into account, it focuses on skills that New Zealand residents genuinely do not have or couldn’t be trained to do, and in numbers that the country can absorb.

The Government has been open about suppressing pay increases for people employed in the state sector. Its tight funding of contractors such as in aged care also holds down wages. By doing this, the Government is reducing pressure on private sector employers for pay increases.

Full Report here.

Building Consents – Statistics NZ

Fonterra

  • 24 September: Fonterra Co-operative Group lifted its forecast total available for payout for the 2015/16 season to $5.00 − $5.10 kgMS due to an increase in the forecast Farmgate Milk Price of 75 cents
  • 14 October: Standard and Poor’s  downgraded Fonterra’s  credit rating from A to A-

Westpac Economic Overview – November 2015

Brewing El Niño conditions are likely to cause dry weather and knock the economy. And there will be further challenges from a global economic slowdown, the levelling off of the Canterbury rebuild, and the possibility of a housing market slowdown in Auckland.

Full Report here.

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Addendum1: Under-employment

The  under-employment stats;

People who are underemployed are those who work part-time, would prefer to work more hours, and are available to do so. In unadjusted terms, the number of underemployed grew by 12 percent over the year. While the number of part-time workers increased over the year, the ratio of people underemployed to employed part-time also rose – from 17.1 percent in June 2013 to 18.7 percent this quarter.

Official under-employment: up

Definitions

Jobless: people who are either officially unemployed, available but not seeking work, or actively seeking but not available for work. The ‘available but not seeking work’ category is made up of the ‘seeking through newspaper only’, ‘discouraged’, and ‘other’ categories.

Under-employment: employed people who work part time (ie usually work less than 30 hours in all jobs) and are willing and available to work more hours than they usually do.

Employed: people in the working-age population who, during the reference week, did one of the following:

  • worked for one hour or more for pay or profit in the context of an employee/employer relationship or self-employment 

  • worked without pay for one hour or more in work which contributed directly to the operation of a farm, business, or professional practice owned or operated by a relative 

  • had a job but were not at work due to: own illness or injury, personal or family responsibilities, bad weather or mechanical breakdown, direct involvement in an industrial dispute, or leave or holiday.

Source

Addendum2: Other Sources

Statistics NZ:  Household Labour Force Survey

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[To  be periodically up-dated]

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2014 – Ongoing jobless tally

25 December 2014 16 comments

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Unemployment logo

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Continued from: 2013 – Ongoing jobless tally

So by the numbers, for this year,

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

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*

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See also

Reported Job Losses

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*

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Current unemployment statistics

 

March 2014 Quarter

March 2014 quarter Quarterly change Annual change
(000) (Percent)
Employed 2,318 +0.9 +3.7
Unemployed    147   0.0  -1.1
Not in the labour force 1,093   -0.9  -2.9
Working-age population 3,559 +0.3 +1.4
(Percent) (Percentage points)
Employment rate  65.1 +0.4  +1.4
Unemployment rate    6.0   0.0   -0.2
Labour force participation rate  69.3 +0.4  +1.4

 

All figures are seasonally adjusted. Source: Statistics New Zealand

* Employed: Includes people who worked one hour (or more) per week, whether paid or unpaid.

June 2014 quarter

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June 2014 quarter Quarterly change Annual change
(000) (Percent)
Employed 2,328 +0.4 +3.7
Unemployed    137  -6.3 -10.9
Not in the labour force 1,114  +1.7  -0.9
Working-age population 3,579 +0.6 +1.6
(Percent) (Percentage points)
Employment rate  65.0 -0.1  +1.3
Unemployment rate    5.6 -0.3   -0.8
Labour force participation rate  68.9 -0.3  +0.8

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All figures are seasonally adjusted. Source: Statistics New Zealand

* Employed: Includes people who worked one hour (or more) per week, whether paid or unpaid.

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Additional statistics

Officially unemployed stats;

In the June 2014 quarter compared with the March 2014 quarter:

  • The number of people employed increased by 10,000 people.
  • The employment rate fell 0.1 percentage points, to 65.0 percent.
  • The number of people unemployed decreased by 9,000 people.
  • The unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 5.6 percent.
  • The labour force participation rate decreased 0.3 percentage points, to 68.9 percent.

Official unemployment: down

The  under-employment stats;

People who are underemployed are those who work part-time, would prefer to work more hours, and are available to do so. In unadjusted terms, the number of underemployed grew by 12 percent over the year. While the number of part-time workers increased over the year, the ratio of people underemployed to employed part-time also rose – from 17.1 percent in June 2013 to 18.7 percent this quarter.

Official under-employment: up

 

The Household Labour Force Survey for the  September 2014 quarter will be released on 5 November 2014.

Source

Definitions

Jobless: people who are either officially unemployed, available but not seeking work, or actively seeking but not available for work. The ‘available but not seeking work’ category is made up of the ‘seeking through newspaper only’, ‘discouraged’, and ‘other’ categories.

Under-employment: employed people who work part time (ie usually work less than 30 hours in all jobs) and are willing and available to work more hours than they usually do.

Employed: people in the working-age population who, during the reference week, did one of the following:

  • worked for one hour or more for pay or profit in the context of an employee/employer relationship or self-employment 

  • worked without pay for one hour or more in work which contributed directly to the operation of a farm, business, or professional practice owned or operated by a relative 

  • had a job but were not at work due to: own illness or injury, personal or family responsibilities, bad weather or mechanical breakdown, direct involvement in an industrial dispute, or leave or holiday.

Source

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[To  be periodically up-dated]

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Tiwai Point – An exercise in National’s “prudent fiscal management”?

26 February 2014 Leave a comment

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corporate welfare 1

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Timeline

3 October 2007: Meridian and NZAS/Rio Tinto sign agreement for the continuous supply of 572 megawatts of power to the Tiwai Point smelter for 2013 to 2030.

30 October 2011: National government announces partial asset sales, of Genesis, Meridian, Mighty River Power, Solid Energy, and a further sell-down of Air New Zealand.

9 August 2012: Meridian Energy (electricity supplier to Rio Tinto) announces that Rio Tinto/Pacific Aluminium is demanding to renegotiate its electricity supply contract between the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter and Meridian.

10 August 2012: Rio Tinto CEO, Tom Albanese, warns that the smelter will be closed “if they cannot be viable, we have difficult decisions to make”.

7 September 2012:  Rio Tinto/New Zealand Aluminium Smelters  announces it will  make 100 workers redundant by November 2012.

7 August 2013: Rio Tinto/New Zealand Aluminium Smelters  announces 30 maintenance workers to be made redundant at the Tiwai Point smelter.

8 August 2013: National government announces agreement to give cash subsidy of  $30 million  to Rio Tinto, and Meridian Energy to supply the smelter with cheaper (price undisclosed) electricity than agreed in 2007.

9 August 2013: Bill English confirms that he has not sought a guarantee from Rio Tinto that jobs will not be lost at the smelter.

20 August 2013: National government announces details to sell 49% of Meridian Energy.

14/15 February 2014: Rio Tinto announces a   $4.43 billion ($US3.7 billion) annual after-tax profit. Rio Tinto shareholders recieve a 15% increase in dividends.

An exercise in National’s “prudent fiscal management”?

We were conned.

There is no other way to describe events between October 2007 and February this year; we were conned by a multi-national mining/metals giant that exploited National’s core-policies, for their own gain.

How else to describe the above events?

Once National announced their intention to partially-privatise Meridian Energy and float it on the New Zealand  (and Australian) stock exchanges – Rio Tinto realised that the price of Meridian shares would be determined by the income they derived from selling electricity.

As Green Party co-leader, Russel Norman stated,

”Rio Tinto took advantage of Mr Key’s obsession with asset sales by threatening to derail the sale of Meridian by closing the Tiwai smelter, so Mr Key gave them $30 million of public money.”

Rio Tinto was Meridian’s biggest customer, supplying  Tiwai Point  with approximately 15% of New Zealand’s total  electricity output. As such, Rio Tinto had Meridian  (and by proxy, the National Government) by the balls. And on 7 September 2012 and 7 August 2013, Rio Tinto squeezed.

By making  130 workers redundant, it sent National, and it’s compliant  leader, a clear message; “Don’t f**k with us, Johnny-boy. These 130 plebes are an example of what we can do to screw you over“.

Had Rio Tinto followed through on it’s threats (and make no mistake – they were threats), it would have brought down the government. That would have ended Key’s career and his reputation would have been in tatters. No Knighthood or beersies for Johnny-boy!

Key had no choice but to capitulate. Key admitted as such when he said on 14 February,

“At the end of the day I think the Government took a modest step to ensure there was a smooth potential transition there – that we didn’t have a glut of electricity we couldn’t use or that thousands and thousands of Southland jobs are out at risk.”

The resulting loss of 700 jobs at the smelter,  and a further 2,500 downstream throughout Southland, would certainly have been embarrassing for Key and damaging to National .  But this is a government that has overseen the sacking of approximately 3,000 state sector workers (up to August 2012) and 29,472 few jobs in the manufacturing sector, since 2006 (2013 Census results), so unemployment per se is not a problem that overly concerns right-wing government ministers.

What really threatened this government was Key’s reference to a “glut of electricity” – note the words. A glut of electricity would have de-railed the entire asset sales programme. Result; end of National; end of asset sales programme (and the neo-liberal agenda on the whole), and the end of Key’s career.

This shabby, self-serving, politically-expedient exercise, has cost us – the tax-payer – $30 million, plus an even cheaper electricity deal than probably anyone else in this country gets. No wonder the contract price is even more uber secret than the goings-on at the GCSB – the public would erupt in fury if they came to know what our electricity was being sold for, whilst the rest of us have mounting power prices, year after year after year.

Meanwhile, the lowest paid workers in New Zealand’s rest homes are paid just barely above the minimum wage;

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Resthome spy hails saint-like workers

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To which our well-heeled Prime Minister responded thusly,

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PM  No money for aged care workers

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To quote Dear Leader,

“It’s one of those things we’d love to do if we had the cash. As the country moves back to surplus it’s one of the areas we can look at but I think most people would accept this isn’t the time we have lots of extra cash.”

Interesting. Key and his Cabinet cronies found $30 million to throw at a multi-national corporation – which only six months later posted a $4.43 billion ($US3.7 billion) annual after-tax profit.

But no money for the lowest paid, hardest-working people (predominantly women) in our community. Key responded to Russell Norman’s criticism of the $30 million welfare handout,

“If Tiwai Point had closed straight away then hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of jobs would have disappeared and the Greens would have said the Government doesn’t care about those workers and is turning their back on them so they really can’t have it both ways.”

If only we could believe Key. But considering that thousands  lost their jobs since the Global Financial Crisis, and National has not bailed out any other company, the Prime Minister’s protestations ring hollow.

In fact, it’s fairly well obvious that the taxpayer-funded payout to Rio Tinto had nothing to do with jobs or the Southland economy – and everything to do with the state assets sales. As David Hargreaves wrote on Interest.co.nz,

“So, it will cost you, I and him and her a combined NZ$30 million of our hard-earned to keep the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter open just long enough so that the Government can flog off 49% of Meridian Energy.

That’s about the size of the deal struck between Meridian and the company controlled by global giant Rio Tinto, with additional sugar coating supplied by the Government, courtesy of us.

From the point the Government first stepped in earlier this year in an attempt to ‘help out’ it was always obvious tax payers were going to be forced to front up with some readies for the pleasure of keeping the always controversial smelter running for a while longer.

I have no doubt that the smelter will be closed in 2017, which is now when the owners get the first chance to pull the plug.”

The most asinine aspect to this deal (and there are many) is that Finance Minister,  Bill English, told Radio New Zealand on 9 August 2013 that “ensuring the safety of those jobs was not part of the deal and no undertakings were sought on the operation of the company”.

No guarantee for preserving jobs?!

Question: So what, precisely, did $30 million buy?

Answer: Rio Tinto not rocking the boat and upsetting National’s asset-sales programme.

This was a most odious, repugnant deal.

Every New Zealander contributed some of their hard-earned cash, which ended up in Rio Tinto’s shareholder’s pockets.

All done to achieve the sale of state assets which we own.

John Key gave away our money; which ended up in shareholder’s pockets; to sell assets we own; to other share investors.

This is the crazy side of National’s economic policy. This is  corporate welfare and crony capitalism rolled into one. Which begs the question to National’s supporters; is this what they see as “prudent fiscal management”?

How “prudent” is it to pay a subsidy to a multi-national corporation, that posted a multi-billion dollar after-tax profit,  that will most likely close the smelter regardless in some near future date (2017?)?

And why was that $30 million not invested in other job creation industries in Southland, so that a multi-national corporation could not hold this country to ransom? After Rio Tinto and Warner Bros – who is next to hold a gun to our collective head demanding a taxpayer subsidy/payout?

This was an odious, repugnant and wasteful deal.

This should not be allowed to be forgotten this election.

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John Key says I'd like to raise wages but I can't

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References

NZ Herald:  Meridian boss hails deal with smelter

Radio NZ: Details of Meridian share offer announced

Radio NZ: National announces plans for asset sale profits

TV3: Rio Tinto seeks new Bluff smelter terms

TV3: Rio Tinto eyeing smelter closures

Australia Mining: Rio Tinto’s New Zealand smelter to axe jobs

Fairfax Media: More jobs to go in smelter revamp

Interest.co.nz: Govt pays NZ$30 mln to smelter owners in a deal that will clear the way for the float of Meridian Energy

Radio NZ: No job guarantees sought in smelter deal

Otago Daily Times: Rio Tinto profit more than $4.4b

NZ Herald: PM defends $30m payout to Rio Tinto

NZ Statistics: 2013 Census QuickStats about national highlights

Dominion Post: 555 jobs gone from public sector

Fairfax media: Resthome spy hails saint-like workers

Fairfax media: PM – No money for aged care workers

Interest.co.nz:  Opinion: There was a certain inevitability the long-suffering taxpayer would be ‘invited’ to cough up for the pleasure of keeping the Tiwai Point smelter open

Previous related blogposts

John Key’s track record on raising wages – 4. Rest Home Workers

“It’s one of those things we’d love to do if we had the cash”

2013 – Ongoing jobless talley

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The Cost of Living

Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen

This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 18 February 2014.

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2013 – Ongoing jobless tally

23 December 2013 23 comments

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Unemployment logo

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Continued from: 2013 – More redundancies…

So by the numbers, for this year,

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

See also

Reported Job Losses

(Nice to see Interest.Co.Nz following my lead in recording job losses around the country!)

Current unemployment statistics

June 2013 Quarter

June 2013 quarter Quarterly change Annual change
(000) (Percent)
Employed 2,242 +0.4 +0.7
Unemployed 153 +3.7 -5.1
Not in the labour force 1,127 0.0 +2.2
Working-age population 3,523 +0.4 +0.9
(Percent) (Percentage points)
Employment rate 63.6 -0.1 -0.2
Unemployment rate 6.4 +0.2 -0.4
Labour force participation rate 68.0 +0.1 -0.4

All figures are seasonally adjusted.  Source: Statistics New Zealand

September 2013 Quarter

September 2013 quarter Quarterly change Annual change
(000) (Percent)
Employed 2,272 +1.2 +2.4
Unemployed 150 -2.6 -13.1
Not in the labour force 1,109 -1.5 +0.5
Working-age population 3,531 +0.2 +1.1
(Percent) (Percentage points)
Employment rate 64.4 +0.7 +0.9
Unemployment rate 6.2 -0.2 -1.0
Labour force participation rate 68.6 +0.5 +0.2

All figures are seasonally adjusted.  Source: Statistics New Zealand

 

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National in trouble? Time to dog-whistle the Middle Class!

6 September 2012 11 comments

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National is in deep trouble.

Very deep trouble.

A clusterf**k of bad stories; low growth; a growing flood of New Zealanders escaping to Australia; rising unemployment; an unpopular asset sales agenda that has  turned into an unholy  mess; and a recent slew of massive job redundancies has left National sinking in the polls.

See previous blogpost: John Key’s “Bright New Future”

The last Roy Morgan poll had the Nats at 44.5% –  now polling lower than it did last November, where it won  47.31% of the vote.

See recent blogpost: Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government

At this current rate of dropping public support, National’s electoral defeat in 2014 (if not earlier), will be more like a rout than a close-result.  We may be looking at a repeat of the 2002 general election where National’s support collapsed, leaving a rump-vote of 20.93%.

See: New Zealand general election, 2002

A result  of that magnitude would mean 32 National MPs losing their seats.

If this blogger is aware of this simple fact, then you can bet your cotton socks that National’s party strategists are on over-drive.

National’s response, every time, is to employ deflection. The above image – “National:  Spin The Wheel Policy Development Process” – is not so much a funny picture as an actual strategy process.

During the last spate of bad headlines, National floated “kites” on sterilising beneficiaries and “encouraging”  solo-mums (but never solo-dads) and their daughters (but never their sons) on to contraception. (The unspoken inference being that all solo-mothers – but never solo-dads – are reckless “breeders”, and ignoring problems surrounding domestic violence, substance abuse, gambling addiction, marital affairs, etc.)

More recently  recently, the last dog-whistle was drug-testing the unemployed. (The inference being that all 164,000 unemployment are jobless by choice; on drugs; and unwilling to work.)

Never mind the ongoing Global Financial Crisis recession – that excuse is reserved solely for John Key and his ministerial cronies to use,

We did inherit a pretty bad situation with the global financial crisis..” – John Key

See:  View from the top

In the midst of a very deep global downturn we expect volatility and low growth, as we are seeing around the world economies.” – Steven Joyce

See: Parliamentary Questions and Answers – August 29

However, the government deferred the increase due to the challenging economic circumstances New Zealand was experiencing as it continued to recover from the global financial crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes.” – Gerry Brownlee

See: Petrol excise, road user charges increases

The global economic situation is like a dark cloud on the horizon and it’s not going to go away possibly for a generation – certainly for 15 or 20 years.” – Bill English

See: English warns of financial crisis lasting a generation

With low polling and redundancies dominating the headlines, National has cast about for another dog-whistle to distract the easily-led Middle class.

They’ve done the unemployed and solo-mums (but never solo dads) “to death”.

Next minority on the List; Maori.

Cue: John Key’s derisory response to the upcoming nationwide  hui on water rights,

The Government does not believe there should be a national hui; does not believe there should be a national settlement and it probably would not recognise all of the rights and interests that some Maori groups believe they have.

If the Crown was to be represented at the hui, and it wont be, because we’ve said were not having a national hui, we don’t support that…if you are an MP in the government you represent the Crown and any representation by my MPs at such an event would be interpreted as representation by the Crown.

I’ve made that position absolutely crystal clear..I do not accept the view that there needs to be a national hui, because I do not accept there will be a national settlement, because I do not accept it’s a national issue.”

See: Key – Government won’t go to water hui

Maori-bashing.

Almost as good as bene-bashing.

Or “get tough on crime/crush cars” rhetoric.

“Standing tough” with Maori “demands” for water rights will probably work a treat with racist rednecks and low-information voters.  With the former, their racism is deeply ingrained and such ignorance can be written of like the forty-plus financial companies that sucked billions out of mums and dads investors.

With the latter, it is a matter of education and dispelling myths and prejudice, before people’s  eyes eventually open and they connect-the-dots.

National will probably rebound in the polls on this strategy.

So unfortunately, Greens co-leader, Russell Norman is missing the point when he suggests that National has “blundered again” by deciding to boycott the Hui,

For the Government to say that it won’t even attend and will actually ban its MPs from attending is the exact antithesis of good faith negotiation and is yet another blunder from this Government.”

See: MP ban on attending water hui ‘another blunder’

There is no “blunder” involved here. This is naked, machiavellian politicking by National’s back-room boys.

Realistically, though,  they can only use this kind of demonisation and deflection  a few times before the public start to realise that they are being “played”. People wise up pretty quickly – especialy when Opposition Parties, political commentators, media, and bloggers patiently explain what the Nats are up to.

Too much Maori bashing  may even force the Maori Party to make some hard decisions. Do Sharples and Turia really want to be associated with a right wing party that vilifies Maori aspirations and exploits our society’s latent racist underbelly for their own ends?

Especially when a growing perception that Sharples and Turia seem  slavishly tied to National. Are they also  obedient to Dear Leader John Key’s diktat that all National MPs stay away from the upcoming nationwide Hui?

Maori Party Co-leader Tariana Turia stated categorically,

“Well at this point I don’t really see the point in going.”

And Pita Sharples followed,

We believe this is a thing that iwi/hapu have to work out themselves.”

See:  Maori Party likely to snub water rights hui

So whistle-away, Dear Leader.

But eventually,  as Abaham Lincoln pointed out,

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

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John Key’s “Bright New Future”…

5 September 2012 21 comments

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Full story

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Full story

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Full story

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Not going too well is it, Dear Leader?

Feel free to abandon your neo-liberal policies on Market-driven job creation.

Now’s good.

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Addendum

This blogger wonders how National’s welfare “reforms” are going to create new jobs for redundant workers?

Wouldn’t it make more sense to focus on job creation – rather than tinkering with a welfare system that is not the root cause of the problem?

Will Bennett insist that redundant workers from Tiwai Pt aluminium smelter, Spring Creek mine, and elsewhere, be drug-tested?

And is this the best that National can offer us?!

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The real cause for Solid Energy mass redundancies?

5 September 2012 5 comments

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4 September 2012: Citizens of Greymouth, protesting at impending job losses from Solid Energy mines.

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On 16 August, Solid Energy undertook a review of it’s operations and workforce. CEO, Dr Don Elder,  announced,

 “While many in the industry still expect demand, driven by Asia, to pick up again strongly sometime in 2013 Solid Energy needs to plan to withstand these market conditions for at least the next 12 months and possibly for 24 months or longer.” he says. “As a consequence, we are reviewing all areas of our business, including current and future operations, all fixed and variable costs, and the values of some of our assets, which will result in us taking significant impairments. Our aim is to preserve cash through reduced spending while, as far as possible, maintaining our longer-term value opportunities.”

See:  Solid Energy – Continuous Disclosure

By 29 August, Solid Energy announced  140 jobs to go and a suspension of  operations at Spring Creek mine on the West Coast. A further 123 jobs were  to be cut at Huntly East Mine in Waikato.

See: Spring Creek mine work suspended

The following day, that number had risen to 250 job losses on the west Coast, and as one Greymouth retailer put it,

Two-hundred-and-fifty jobs, we’ve got a population of 8000 – it’s probably the equivalent of 40,000 people in Auckland jobs getting affected, so that puts it in perspective. “

On the same day, Solid Energy  reported a “loss” of NZ$40.2 million in the year to June 30, 2012,  compared to  a profit of NZ$87.2 million in 2011. (More on this shortly.)

See: Solid Energy reports $40m loss on big writedowns

No one can rationally argue that job losses on this scale, with ensuing loss of wages and company spending, will  have a devastating impact of the West Coast economy.  The losses will cause incalculable harm.

Solid Energy has attempted to justify redundancies by pointing to a drop in international coal prices; a fall in demand from  China; and a $40.2 million “loss” in profits.

Two of the above reasons have a degree of merit – the third reason has been mis-represented to the public.

International Coal Prices

Coal prices have indeed dropped.

From a recent high of NZ$185.47 per metric tonne in January 2011 – to NZ$113.33 at the end of July, this year. This is a drop of NZ$72.14 per metric tonne.

However the July 2012 price (NZ$113.33 per metric tonne)  is not  much different to the November 2009 price of NZ$115.52 per metric tonne. As a result of the November 2009 low price, Solid Energy had minimal redundancies,

There were 18 redundancies in the year at a cost of $367,050.”

See:  Commerce Committee 2009/10 financial review questions: Solid Energy New Zealand Ltd

That figure of 18 redundancies is in stark contrast to the 360 redundancies  this year.

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Source

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Demand from China

There is no doubt; demand for coal from China has  dropped,

Globally diversified miner Anglo American PLC said the global thermal coal market looks bearish in the short term, partly due to displacement of U.S. coal demand by shale gas and an economic slowdown in China, but it is still an attractive market over the medium to long term.

“In the short term, we will have a bearish market,” Norman Mbazima, chief executive of Anglo American’s Thermal Coal division, told analysts at a seminar. But “there is very good demand outlook for coal. Coal will continue to be the mainstay of electricity production in the world and this will underpin good prices into the future,” he said.

Gareth Griffiths, head of Anglo American’s Thermal Coal Marketing department, said that the main reason behind the recent collapse in thermal coal prices has been a slowdown in Chinese coal consumption growth.”

See: Anglo American – thermal-coal outlook bright (14 June 2012)

Coal demand is also expected to be fragile amid a weak economic outlook for the rest of the year.

A Reuters poll forecasts this year to see the slowest full-year of economic growth since 1999 as demand for China’s factory goods falls due to the debt crisis in its biggest customer the European Union.

“The coal market will remain challenging,” said Ivan Lee, a coal analyst at Nomura Bank.

FACTORY-DRIVEN REBOUND

Chinese coal prices can only rebound if demand recovers considerably, which requires the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) to rise above 50, economic growth to climb above 8 percent and power plants’ coal stocks to fall by half, Lee said.

The data, however, is not encouraging. The latest PMI showed China’s manufacturing sector contracted at its sharpest pace in nine months in August, with the index falling to 47.8 from 49.3 in July.

Even if China decided it needs more coal, which is unlikely, it will not seek it abroad as imports have become more expensive than domestic supplies, traders said.

Australian imports, based on the globalCOAL index, now cost around $3 per tonne more than Chinese prices, although some traders are selling blended material at lower rates.

See: Reuters – Output cuts help steady China’s coal prices, outlook (29 August 2012)

Whilst this may impact on Solid Energy’s profits (as compared to this year and 2011), Solid Energy’s viability does not seem threatened.

The only threat to Solid Energy is it’s saleability.  The more profit Solid Energy makes – the higher the share price when it is floated on the Stock Exchange. By contrast, the lower the the profit, the lower the share price.

Which may explain Bill English’s comment in the media item below, “English – Solid Energy not ready for sale”.

Solid Energy Profits

According to Solid Energy’s own Results Announcements 2012 report,  the company’s income was actually better than the preceding year,

Good operating performance overtaken by asset write downs

• Trading performance was good in a deteriorating market with strong NZD. Underlying earnings were $99.7 million (2011: $86.2 million).
• Asset write downs of $110.6 million net of tax and other adjustments have resulted in a $40.2 million loss after tax (2011: $87.2 million).

See: Solid Energy New Zealand Ltd Results Announcement 2012

In plain english (not the mumbled  Prime Ministerial  version), Solid Energy made an after-tax profit of $99.7 million – an increase from $86.2 million in 2011.

Employing a  book-keeping, accountancy “trick”, Solid Energy  reduced their own asset values by $110.6  million. (That’s like saying your house was worth  $300,000 in 2011, but only $250,000 this year. You still have your house and you’re living in it – nothing else has changed. Only the theoretical valuation has ‘reduced’. Next year that valuation could rise back to $300,000 or even more or maybe less. That’s creative accountancy for you.)

The point is that Solid Energy’s profit rose from $86.2 million to $99.7 million.

In fact, Solid Energy’s revenue in 2012 was $978.4 million – almost a billion dollars – an 18% increase from the previous year.

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See: Ibid

“Good earnings” indeed!

Any “loss” by Solid Energy is there a paper loss only; an accounting mechanism to revalue assets.  It’s profits remain unchanged.

Solid Energy therefore cannot rely on an imaginary “loss” to justify redundancies – because there was no loss.

It is noteworthy that Solid Energy’s decision to “mothball” Spring Creek mine and reduce staff at Spring Creek and Huntly follows one week on from this event,

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Full story

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Don Elder rejects all allegations that planned  redundancies are a covert attempt to increase Solid Energy’s profitability by reducing it’s labour costs,

This restructuring is not about increasing value, this is about saying `we have to do what we can afford to do.”

See: Mining job losses unrelated to asset sale: Elder

To which this blogger replies,

  1. There has been a downturn in international coal prices, and,
  2. Despite that, Solid Energy is profitable and it’s 2012 revenue exceeded last year’s, and,
  3. Bill English stated on 21 August that  “We wouldn’t be planning to float it [Solid Energy] any time soon”, and,
  4. A week later Solid Energy announced 250 redundancies and the closure of Spring Creek mine and,
  5. By contrast, there were only 18 redundancies in November 2009, even though the price per metric tonne was similar.

Coincidence? I think not.

Despite Elder’s protestations to the contrary, this blogger has no doubt whatsoever  that Solid Energy employers and the entire West Coast are paying dearly for National’s privatisation agenda.

There are some very dirty back room deals going on, and the wafting smell ain’t methane escaping from West Coast mines.

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Additional

English: Solid Energy not ready for sale

NZX: Solid Energy responds to very tough market

Solid Energy: Business Sustainability Principles

Good operating performance overtaken by asset writedowns

Hundreds turn out to support Spring Creek workers

Solid Energy reports $40m loss on big writedowns

Outlook for coal market worse than at the bottom of the GFC, Solid Energy says; ‘Reason why full Crown ownership is not suitable’

Index Mundi: Coal, Australian thermal coal Monthly Price – New Zealand Dollar per Metric Ton

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Drug Testing the Unemployed – National’s Epic Fail at Job Creation

29 August 2012 31 comments

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This blogger has three questions for John Key and  the National Party,

1. Is is true that Paula Bennett made a correct statement when she  admitted on TVNZ’s Q+A, on   29 April 2012,

No. There’s not a job for everyone that would want one right now, or else we wouldn’t have the unemployment figures that we do. ” – Source

2. If National can claim the Global Financial Crisis as the reason for New Zealand’s low economic growth – why does the same rationale not apply to the unemployed, and if it does, why spend an estimated $14 million on drug testing when joblessness is a result of economic circumstances, and not drug-induced laziness?

3. How is National’s pledge to create 170,000 new jobs – made in November last year – working out? Especially when unemployment recently increased from 6.7% to 6.8%?

A day after National announced it’s intentions to drug-test the unemployed, Solid Energy broke the news that it was planning to make up to 263 of it’s miners, contractors, and other staff, redundandant.  Workers from Huntly East Mine and Spring Creek on the West Coast will lose their jobs.

See: Beneficiary drug testing plans unveiled

See: Spring Creek mine work suspended

This follows on from other redundancies announced just this year alone,

How many of the above redundant workers will Bennett insist be drug-tested?

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But more to the point – is this really a problem? Or, as is likely, is this a shameful attempt by National to deflect attention away from rising unemployment; their failure to manage an economy to generate new jobs; and to deflect blame onto the unemployed?

Because any sane, dispassionate analysis of this problem does not indicate that drug taking is the cause of 162,000 people currently out of work.

See: Unemployment rises: 6.8pc

Especially when in 2007, unemployment stood at 3.4%  – or 77,000 people!

See: Household Labour Force Survey December 2007 quarter

What has changed?

As National ministers  like John Key, Bill English, Gerry Brownlee, et al  like to consistently remind us – when their economic track record is held up for scrutiny – it’s called the “Global Financial Crisis”,

We did inherit a pretty bad situation with the global financial crisis. ” – John Key

See: View from the Top

In the midst of a very deep global downturn we expect volatility and low growth, as we are seeing around the world economies.” – Steven Joyce

See: Parliamentary Questions and Answers – August 29

However, the government deferred the increase due to the challenging economic circumstances New Zealand was experiencing as it continued to recover from the global financial crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes.” – Gerry Brownlee

See: Petrol excise, road user charges increases

The global economic situation is like a dark cloud on the horizon and it’s not going to go away possibly for a generation – certainly for 15 or 20 years.” – Bill English

See: English warns of financial crisis lasting a generation

It’s abundantly clear that National has no reservation in blaming the Global Financial Crisis for the sad state of our economy.  They refer to overseas influences time and time again.

So why does the same economic situation not apply to other economic indicators – like unemployment?

Why try to smear unemployed – who up until recently were in full-time, paid, employment – and brand them as drug-taking, lazy, “bludgers”?

Why did Bennett make this statement,

Recreational drug use is simply not an acceptable excuse for avoiding available work. Thousands of working New Zealanders are in jobs requiring they be clean of drugs; it’s reasonable to expect someone looking for work to do the same.”

See: Beneficiary drug testing plans unveiled

Bennett is implying that someone looking for work must be on drugs? Why?

The answer, I submit to the reader, is that National is playing to it’s audience of middle class, low-information voters; right wing extremists; and the plain crazy nutjobs. These are the target demographics for the Nats.

Because any sane person will look at the above list of redundancies from the likes of Brightwater Engineering, Telecom, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, etc,  – and wonder – WTF?! Why is National spending $14 million of my tax dollars on drug-testing redundant engineers, telecommunication workers, diplomats, etc?!

Because it plays to an audience of predominantly middle class (and quite a segment of the working class), who find it all to easy to believe the cliched  stereotypes  that depict  All Welfare Beneficiaries Are There By Choice. Internet fora are full of uninformed, prejudiced, and outright  crazy ‘trolls’ who revel in their distorted view of those on welfare, or low-paying jobs.

Never mind that four years ago we had half the unemployment we do now.

Do those ignorant fools believe that unemployed are out of work by choice, having given up their average wage/salary of $800 to $900 per week, so they could live in luxury on $204.96 (net, weekly unemployed benefit)?

See: WINZ Unemployment Benefit (current)

Drug testing the unemployed has nothing to do with any perceived problem with drug abuse.

This is a carefully constructed, skillfully diseminated, lie.

National is spending $14 million on a problem that does not exist.

National is desperate to turn public attention away from,

  1. Increasing unemployment
  2. Increasing poverty levels
  3. More and more New Zealanders heading overseas
  4. A stagnating economy
  5. National’s lack of traction in creating the 170,000 new jobs they pledged last year

Middle Class voters are being targetted by National’s tax-payer funded spin doctors and political strategists. Their agenda is clear and simple;

  • Brand  the unemployed as “lazy” and “on drugs”.
  • So it can’t be a failure on the part of National to create the 170,000 new jobs they promised us.

See: Budget 2011: Govt predicts 170,000 new jobs

Above all else, National’s nasty little strategy is an admission of failure on their part. They have failed utterly to,

  • grow the economy
  • create jobs
  • raise wages
  • stem the flow of skilled New Zealanders to Australia

Because clearly, if a government was building an economy that was generating more and more jobs, then what would be the need to create a bogeyman of lazy, drugged unemployed?

Especially when Labour presided over a growing economy with low unemployment,

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There was no talk of “lazy/drugged unemployed”  in 2007.

No Global Financial Crisis either.

Truly, National has hit rock bottom with this vile strategy. How long, one wonders, before the middle classes out in Voterland realise that they are being conned by some very cunning politicians and their back-room strategists?

A question for the Middle Classes;

We live in uncertain times. Any one of us are only one step away from being unemployed ourselves. How  would you feel being branded a possible drug-user by the likes of Paula Bennett and John Key?

Not too happy I’d suspect?

And one final question for the Prime Minister,

Where are the jobs?

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Previous related blogpost

Jobs, jobs, everywhere – but not a one for me? (Part Toru)

What’s up with the Nats? (Part rua)

Related Information

Employment-Unemployment Fact Sheet #1: Queues for Vacancies

Other blogs

Tumeke: What the real aim of drug testing beneficiaries is

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Jobs, jobs, everywhere – but not a one for me? (Part Toru)

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“The driving goal of my Government is to build a more competitive and internationally-focused economy with less debt, more jobs and higher incomes.” – 21 December 2011

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So John, how’s that “More Real Jobs” campaign pledge working out for you?

Tell us more about these “Real Jobs” and how we’re going to get “More” of them?

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Full story

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Plus on top of that,

Latest redundancies;

And tell us, John, how will drug testing unemployed and State control over solo-mother’s (but never solo-dads)  birth control, give us “More Real Jobs“?

Surely, John, your plans for drug testing and birth control for welfare recipients  is not a cunning diversionary tactic from your Party strategists (paid out of our taxes) to deflect public attention from your total inability to generate “More Real Jobs“?!

You wouldn’t stoop to such a cheap trick, would you, John?

Surely not?

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Additional

Unemployment rate lifts to 6.7pc

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= fs =

Election Eleven – Wednesday

23 November 2011 4 comments

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Election Eleven – Wednesday

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Another stirling free-market “success” story,

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So another 28 workers lose their jobs; go on the unemployment benefit; and get labelled as “dole bludgers” by right wing imbeciles.

This is New Zealand in 2011AD:  Neo-liberal Nirvana.

Tell me, my fellow New Zealanders – you who pride yourself as being fair-minded and always willing to give others a fair go – does the closure of this yarn factory and job losses strike a chord with you? There are hundreds – thousands – of similar businesses like Qualityarns that’ve gone bust since Roger Douglas put his hand up in Parliament and said, “Ive got a great idea!”.

Isn’t it ironic… 28 men and women had a job yesterday. Tomorrow they will be on the dole and suffering bene-bashing.

Along with 154,000 other men and women.

Is this it?

Is this what we have to look forward to? Unemployment for some; low wages for others; mass-migration to Australia; and cheap goods from China, India, etc?

Hullo? Is anyone awake in this country?!?!

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~ ~ ~

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This is frankly a form of economic vandalism. What are we mounting here? An economic development strategy for China?” – David Cull, Mayor of Dunedin

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The latest in John Key’s hard-sell* of our assets,

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Listen to John Key speaking to reporters on asset sale plans

Listen to full interview

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Now let me get this straight…

Key reckons that “National would legislate to create a cap on the shares held in any state assets”?  He adds that,

National would pass a law stating that no individual or company could own more than a 10% share. There’s historical precedent there – Telecom had a cap – it’s just a matter of passing legislation. We’d pass it.” Source

Really?

A couple of points here.

National’s definition of the word “cap” appears to be somewhat different to that expressed in, oh, say, just about every English dictionary in the Known Universe. This government has “capped” the civil service by actively cutting government workers, and making them redundant.

So does the word “cap” mean the same for National as it does for ordinary citizens? Recent events suggest not.

Secondly. I’m not a financial whizz-kid in John Key’s league. I’ve never speculated on a zillion dollars; made a bajillion dollars profit; and banked a squillion dollars commision. My work is somewhat more mundane.

However. Even I know that passing a law to “cap” (definition?) share-ownership at 10% can be easily rorted. I can spot an immediate loophole:

  1. Company A sets up five shelf companies; A1, A2, A3, A4, and A5.
  2. Each Shelf company buys 9%.
  3. Result; parent company A now owns 45%.
  4. And John Key smiles and points to his “success” at preventing any one company from gobbling up the whole lot.
  5. And by registering each shelf company in special company/tax havens, such as Ian Wishart described in “The Paradise Conspiracy” – we’ll never know that Company A has bought up the lion’s share of available shares.
  6. Easy peasy.

I suspect John Key – being somewhat more knowlegeable in such arcane matters – is already aware of such a possibilty.

But I guess he doesn’t want to spoil the nice fairy tale he’s been spinning us…

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(* Hard-sell – as in selling to us what we already own)

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Perhaps the most sober, insightful, and plain-speaking look at where we have arrived as a society, after 27 years of radical, free market, “reforms” and the rise of the “Me” Generation,

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Full Story & On-demand Replay

Facebook: Inside Child Poverty New Zealand

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Every politician; aspiring political candidate; community leader; businessperson; and follower of the “free” market should be made to sit and watch this film. This is how we have made New Zealand.

This is a portrait of a society that has lost it’s soul, in pursuit of money and the illusion of “free choice”.

Watch… and maybe learn.

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Well, well, well… I wonder what other bad news Dear Leader is keeping from us,

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When Goff sprung that on Key, he looked decidedly uncomfortable.

Which is silly, really. Trying to keep political secrets in this country is like trying to carry water in a butterfly net. The question is not if a secret will be made public – but will it make it in time for the 6PM News on TV1 or TV3.

I suspect there will be a few more unpleasant surprises in store for us next year, if National wins the election. Their last three years have indicated to us that, as usual, right wing governments and secret agendas go hand-in-hand.

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Firstly, since when is cutting the same as capping?! National has been actively cutting government jobs – whilst at the same time hiring some very expensive “advisors”. These jobs are men and women who have given many loyal years of service to the country. They are the ones who do the work in the back-room offices, to ensure that phones are answered when we have a query about tax or traffic lights are out, and that essential  services are carried out.

Loading front-line services with more paperwork and other administrative duties seems counter-productive. And people are beginning to resent it, and resist these cost-cutting follies.

So much for our esteemed leader, John Key,  assuring New Zealanders that “there’s no way one in five New Zealanders will lose their jobs“.

Making people unemployed is not helping our economy.

For National to be persisting with this false economy of job cuts is not just hurting the economy and hurting ordinary New Zealanders – it signifies a depressing lack of imagination from the National Party,

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This is National’s “action plan”, if re-elected,

National’s action plan includes:

– Have the budget deficit next year, and be back in surplus in 2014/2015
– Establish the Crown Water Investment Company to invest up to $400 million from the Future Investment Fund in irrigation and water storage to make farm land more productive
– Amend the Resource Management Act to have six-month time limits on consenting medium-sized projects
– Immediately implement the new lower public service staffing cap
– Slow the phasing-in of the Emissions Trading Scheme and allow off-setting for pre-1990 forest owners
– Amend the Social Security Act to comprehensively reform benefits
– Introduce changes to sanctions for beneficiaries whose recreational use of drugs affects their ability to apply for and secure a job
– Change bail laws to make it harder for those accused of the most serious offences to get bail
– Introduce screening of parole applications to allow the Parole Board to reduce the number of unnecessary parole hearings
– Pass the Search and Surveillance Bill
– Make secondary school performance information available to parents
– Immediately begin work to develop more effective teacher and principal appraisal
– Increase the number of elective operations by at last 4000 a year
– Work with district health boards to ensure patients needing a specialist appointment are seen within no more than four months by 2014
– Begin work with local primary care networks to provide free after-hours GP visits to children under six
– Start building 17,000 seat temporary stadium at Addington
– Receive and assess the CBD recovery plan

Source

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No mention of jobs.

But plenty of threats of State  punitive actions,

– Immediately implement the new lower public service staffing cap
– Amend the Social Security Act to comprehensively reform benefits
– Introduce changes to sanctions for beneficiaries whose recreational use of drugs affects their ability to apply for and secure a job
– Change bail laws to make it harder for those accused of the most serious offences to get bail
– Introduce screening of parole applications to allow the Parole Board to reduce the number of unnecessary parole hearings
– Pass the Search and Surveillance Bill

The National Party shows a strong inclination toward  “Daddy Statism”. Lots of punishments. Increases in state police powers (they’ll need them).  And blaming those of welfare for the lack of job-growth in this country.

There is nothing positive in any of this.

And this is what New Zealanders are supporting as a possible government?

Perhaps, collectively, we feel we don’t deserve any better.

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2008

That was then…

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2011

This is now…

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I have the strongest impression that New Zealanders are not just leaving because of higher wages in Australia. There has  be more to it than that.

Could it be that those leaving are seeking a better quality of life? Could it be that the free market reforms have created a “Me Society” where New Zealanders feel disconnected from our own country?

Bryan Bruce’s sobering and thoughtful documentary “Inside NZ: Inside Child Poverty” suggests to me that twentyseven years of free market, user-pays, growing gaps between wealthy and Middle Classes and Poor, and growing underclass has created a sense of alienation and frustration.

The irony is that John Key saying that – “I believe we’ve made some progress in so much that we have been closing that after-tax wage gap, we are building an economy that is now growing at a faster rate than Australia but it will take us some time to turn that around” –  is not just unhelpful, but totally ignoring the root-cause of what has fractured our society.

Here’s a clue: Money buys goods and serevices. It does not buy a sense of community.

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Quote of the week.

M@TT   #29   2:12pm

John Key, get your stinking paws off Our SOE’s, you damned dirty ape

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Dominion Post Comments

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Jobs up, jobless down?

7 October 2011 4 comments

Two articles in the Dominion Post today (7 October) seem to suggest that unemployment was on it’s way down and that the country was witnessing a growth in jobs,

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Full Story

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The article states that “more than 4000 people came off the unemployment benefit and more than 2200 youths came off welfare, including 351 youths who came the unemployment benefit.”

However, the article continues with this,  “Bennett said the total number of people on welfare remained high, rising by 0.1 per cent in September to 328,496.”

So, the reality is that a certain number of those 4,000 people who   “ came off the unemployment benefit ”   may well have moved on to another benefit? Because that is what Bennett is saying, quite clearly,  ” the total number of people on welfare … [rose] by 0.1 per cent in September to 328,496 “.

The article also does not state where those 2200 youths who “came off welfare  ” went. Did they find employment? Is is full time or part time – and if the latter, are their wages still being subsidised by WINZ? Have they move “side ways” onto another benefit? Are they in training/education, or one of WINZ’s many, ultimately-futile “training” programmes?

The story simply does not enlighten us.

Paula Bennett’s comment here may be somewhat less-than-helpful,

Job hunting isn’t easy, but it’s fair to say that if you’re not looking, you won’t find a job…”

Thank you, Paula, you’re a real fountain of wisdom.

The second Dominion Post article is also vague and contradictory,

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Source

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The article states “SEEK Employment Index rose half a per cent in the last month, showing the new jobs listed on the employment website have grown faster than job applications.”

But then continues with “when seasonally adjusted, the index actually fell by 1.1 per cent in September…”.

It also seems bizarre to read that, “The five most sought category of employees in September were accounting, government and defence, healthcare and medical; engineering and automotive trades.

“Government and defence”?

This seems clearly at odds with current government  policy of curring back the civil service. The military and other government sectors have lost at least 2000 workers, with more job losses planned.

The above articles may sound optimistic, but redundancies are still hitting our economy and impacting on society,

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Full Story

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Full Story

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The question that springs to mind is that if the drop in unemployed is real – is it due to new jobs or new job vacancies? The difference may seem subtle, but is very real. New jobs are an indicator that the economy is beginning to grow again.

Job vacancies are existing jobs that have been vacated for one reason or another, and are being replaced. It is sometimes referred to as “churn“.

With current wages low and not keeping pace with inflation and the recent increase in gst, it is hardly surprising that most New Zealanders have had the lowest wage increases in a decade,

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Full Sad Story

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By contrast, we had somewhat more generous wage increases during the previous, unfairly-maligned, Labour Government,

Wage growth at a record high

Annual wage growth in the adjusted LCI (which measures changes in pay rates for a fixed set of jobs and excludes performance related pay increases) remained steady at 3.4% in the March 2008 quarter.  This is the equal highest rate recorded since the LCI began in 1992 matching the annual increase for the December 2007 year.

The unadjusted LCI (which includes performance related pay increases) shows annual wage growth of 5.4% in the March 2008 quarter, up from 5.0% at December 2007.
Annual wage growth in the QES (which includes performance related pay increases and is affected by the composition of employment) increased to 4.6% for the year to March 2008, up from 4.1% in the previous quarter.Source

Good times, eh, my fellow New Zealanders?

Despite John Key’s priority-pledge to raise wages – and not just by 38 cents!!! – we now have  a record flight of New Zealanders moving to Australia – 3300!

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Full Story

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As Ms Visser said,

It’s definitely a wake-up call – with 20 per cent of our workforce looking to leave at any one time it’s a scary thought.

Which indicates that this current government has done very little of practical value to motivate New Zealanders to stay and help build our own economy. Two tax cuts have certainly not worked the “magic” that Key, English, et al, had hoped.

Which suggests that Bill English’s May 2011 Budget statement, promising 170,000 new jobs may be a tad over-optimistic.,

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Full Story

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I guess the ‘moral’ of this piece is two-fold,

  1. Be cautious about  media stories that do not present the full story. A bit of ‘digging’ soon yields a fuller picture.
  2. Be cautious about politicians who promise you the world (you’ll be the one paying for it).

And I’ll finish this piece with a message from our Prime Minister, John Key,

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"The billboard also highlights Labour's failure to stem the tide of people voting with their feet and leaving New Zealand." - John Key, 1 Sept 2008

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Additional reading

Inflation outpaces income growth

Bill English: Focus on Finance – Budget 2011

Labour Market Reports – Archive Wage Growth – March  2008 Quarter

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Great Myths Of The 21st Century (#1)

16 August 2011 7 comments

Perhaps the greatest urban-myth, perpetrated and perpetuated by those whose interests it serves, is that the unemployed are there-by-choice, and unwilling to work.

Of course, this is absurd and an outright falsehood.

Fact 1:  The New Zealand December 2007 Quarter Household Labourforce Survey unemployment stood  at 3.4% . This was prior to the global recession hitting NZ.

Fact 2:  By the end of 2008, the New Zealand December Quarter Household Labourforce Survey unemployed rose to 4.6%.

Fact 3:  The New Zealand December 2010 Quarter Household Labourforce Survey unemployed rate increased to 6.8% .

Fact  4: In three years, the Household Labourforce Survey unemployed doubled from 3.4% to 6.8%

Fact  5: In other countries such as the US, unemployment went from 4.8%  in the fourth quarter of 2007 to stand at 9.1%  by July of this year.

Whether the largest economy on Earth, or one of the smallest, the impact of the global banking crisis and following recession caused companies to collapse; down-size; and “rationalise” (reduce) staff. This caused unemployment to skyrocket.

Events in Wall St, USA, had an impact on Main Sts, New Zealand;

“Jobs to go at textile factories”

“Headlines do not reveal true picture of job losses”

“‘Another kick in the guts for rural NZ'”

“Job losses to hit military next week”

“Lower Hutt jobs to go as shops shut”

“Hellaby’s closes: 18 jobs go”

“Australasian Colorado shops closing”

“Grim day of redundancies”

“Jobs to go at troubled baker Yarrows”

“KiwiRail plans to lay off Dunedin staff”

“Thirty-five jobs may go at Niwa”

“Ovation confirms 304 job losses “

“Dunne defends Greymouth IRD job cuts announcement”

“NZ Post shutting stores, axing jobs”

“Ballantynes faces post-quake job cuts”

“Lane Walker Rudkin 470 Redundancies A Tragedy”

And many more here .

As unemployment increased, the number of job-seekers increased. Even the Prime Minister, John Key, has remarked,

“We’re part of a global environment so we can’t control all of the factors that affect New Zealand, but all the indications we have is that 2011 will be a better year.”

Dozens, and often hundreds of unemployed job-seekers would turn up at businesses, that were hiring staff;

It is apparent that the global recession has caused the demise of some businesses, and forced others to greatly reduce staffing numbers. This is beyond the control of any individual in this country.

So why is there a perception amongst some individuals and groups that the jobless have chosen their unemployment as some kind of “lifestyle choice”? Especially when is it clear that WINZ unemployment benefits are nowhere as generous as some might believe.

Trying to apportion responsibility for people losing their jobs is victim-blaming  and is utterly  repugnant. Such victim-blaming is an unwelcome aspect of the human capacity for bigotry.

Why do people do it?

* The Opportunists.

It serves the purpose of some political parties such as National and ACT to blame unemployed for their predicament.

It allows National the opportunity to escape any possibility of responsibility at addressing this critical economic and social problem. And it’s a vote-winner with the next group,

* The Greedy.

For many neo-liberals who cherish the ideology of the free-market and minimalist-government, any form of taxation by the State is “theft”. And when the State hands over some of that tax-money to the Unemployed so that they can survive – they resent it. And do they complain bitterly!

These neo-liberal free-marketeers resent having to contribute their fair share to the society they live in. (Though they think nothing of driving on tax-payer funded roads; being cared for in tax-payer funded A&E Hospital Wards; protected by tax-payer funded Police; educated in tax-payer funded schools, etc.)

Greed – it does funny things to peoples’ humanity.

* The Perpetually Angry.

The uninformed, perpetually angry, people who obtain their information through TV news and/or Talkback radio. They have friends,, who know someone who has heard of a person, who apparently lives in luxury on the dole

These are people who have very little experience of the society they live in and generally have a circle of friends who validate their misconceptions.  For them, everyone is a dole-bludger; the recession happened to Someone, Somewhere Else; and everyone should be living comfortably, regardless of circumstances. Their worldview generally doesn’t extend much past their front door.

Anger – it stops people thinking clearly.

Unfortunately, The Greedy and The Perpetually Angry have no constructive solutions to offer us.

One hopes that  the National government will reconsider their decision to  cut almost $146 million from skills training.

Nor does it help when we export jobs overseas,

“Army shifts $2m contract to China”

“Chinese firm beats Hillside to KiwiRail contract”

So not only are New Zealanders losing their jobs because of corporate greed and mis-management in Wall St, USA – but our current policies actually encourage contracts to be awarded to other countries,  in effect “exporting” jobs.

Is this making sense to anyone?

Is it little wonder we have high unemployment, who need the dole to simply survive?

Because demonising a vulnerable group in our society will not achieve a single damn thing; create a single damn job; nor give us the Decent Society that we once enjoyed living in.

So far, my fellow New Zealanders,  there is precious little decency going on here.