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Two polls, two governments

21 March 2013 6 comments

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Two  polls out recently give completely different outcomes if an election had been held over the last week or so.

One, the Roy Morgan poll would result in a change of government – whilst the Herald Digi Poll would (without overhangs) allow National to almost govern on it’s own. The results,

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Roy Morgan Poll

Herald Digi-poll

National

43.5% (-4%)

48.5% (+1%)

Labour

32.5% (+2%)

36.4% (+4.4%)

Greens

13.5% (+1%)

9% (-1.7%)

NZ First

5% (+2%)

2.5% (-3%)

ACT

0.5% (n/c)

0.1% (-0.1%)

Mana

0.0% (-0.5%)

0.5% (+0.2%)

Maori Party

2% (-0.5%)

1.1% (-0.4%)

United Future

0.5% (n/c)

0.0% (-0.3%)

Conservative Party

2% (n/c)

1.3% (-0.1%)

Undecideds/Wouldn’t Say

5%

11%

(n/c = No Change)

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Two polls, two outcomes, two governments. So which is more accurate?

In a previous blogpost (see:  Three recent polls), a comparison was made between Roy Morgan, Colmar Brunton, and Ipson Poll. Of the three, Roy Morgan was closest to actual election day results in 2011.

So let’s compare Roy Morgan; the DigiPoll, and Election Day results,

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Roy Morgan

24 Nov 2011

Digi Poll

25 Nov 2011

2011

Election results

Closest Polling result

Right bloc:

National

49.5%

50.9%

47.31%

Roy Morgan

Maori Party

1%

0.4%

1.43%

Roy Morgan

ACT NZ

1.5%

1.08%

1.07%

Digi Poll

United Future

0.5%

0.0%

0.6%

Roy Morgan

Left bloc:

Labour

23.5%

28%

27.48%

Digi Poll

Greens

14.5%

11.8%

11.06%

Digi Poll

Mana Party

0.5%

0.3%

1.08%

Roy Morgan
Other:

NZ First

6.5%

5.2%

6.59%

Roy Morgan

Conservative Party

n/r

1.3%

2.65%

Digi Poll

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Roy Morgan was slightly more accurate than the Heral Digi Poll.

Interestingly, Roy Morgan seems to be the most accurate pollster when it comes to National, beating Herald DigiPoll, Colmar Brunton, and Ipsos.

Equally important to  Roy Morgan’s polling for preferred Party, is  polling for Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction for the government of the day – in this case, National.

Roy Morgan asks respondants,

“Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

The results seem to back up National’s fall in preferred Party stats,

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New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates
 

Jan 30-Feb 12,

2012

(post election)

Jan 2-13,

2013

Jan 14-27,

2013

Jan 28-Feb 10,

2013

Feb 11-24,

2013

Feb 25-Mar 10,
2013

Right direction

57%

53.5%

57%

55%

54%

51.5%

Wrong direction

30 %

33.5%

30.5%

30.5%

32.5%

37.5%

Roy Morgan GCR#

127

120

126.5

124.5

121.5

114

Can’t say

13%

13%

12.5%

14.5%

13.5%

11%

TOTAL

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

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Acknowledgement: Roy Morgan Poll

Soon after the 2011 election, National rated highly with respondants, with 57% approval. Since then, except for a ‘blip’ at the beginning of the year, National’s approval rating has dropped from 57% to 51.5%.

Conversely, those expressing a view that National was headed in the wrong direction, rose from 30% soon after the 2011 election to 37.5%.

Those who Couldn’t/Wouldn’t say have dropped from 13% to 11% – meaning that people’s views on National are  firming up – and becoming more pissed off.

Once Mighty River Power is part-privatised, expect to see National’s support  plummet even further.

As this blogger has been predicting consistently; we will see a change of government in 2014 (if not earlier).

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Previous related blogpost

Census, Surveys, and Cellphones

Three recent polls

References

Final poll: Nats win looks certain, Winston over 5% (25 Nov 2011)

Roy Morgan Poll  (18 March 2013)

Labour rises at expense of allies  (21 March 2013)

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