Archive

Posts Tagged ‘2011 election’

Latest TV1-Colmar Brunton Poll – Back To The Future IV?

28 February 2014 Leave a comment

.

local-news-takes-stupid-poll

.

It was a shocker of a poll on Sunday evening (23 February); the TV1-Colmar Brunton poll had National soaring to stratospheric heights. At 51%, the Nats would hold around 62 seats in the House – sufficient to govern alone in a 120 seat Parliament.

The numbers;

National: 51%

Labour: 34%

Greens: 8%

NZ First: 3%

There is no figure given for Undecideds/Refused to Say, which kind of makes the stats a bit dodgy.  The Colmar Brunton website, however, does have a download facility to download the full report;

.

colmar brunton Feb 2014 - undecideds

.

The “Don’t Know/Refused to say” was a whopping 13%!

That’s a sizeable chunk of voters who could yet decide the election outcome.

But how credible is a polling figure of 51% for any political party?

The answer? Not very.

The highest Party Vote for any political party since the introduction of MMP in 1996, was 47.31%, achieved by National in the 2011 election.

So is 51% a credible indicator for National’s re-election chances?

Again, not very.

In a February 2011 TV1-Colmar Brunton poll, National stood at… 51%. In fact, the 2011 Poll is a remarkable mirror of the current Colmar results;

.

National's popularity falls, but no party near it - Colmar Poll - feb 2011

.

It’s almost as if Colmar Brunton has simply ‘dusted off’ the 2011 poll results; given Labour an extra one percentage point; and slapped a February 2014 label on it.

It is further worth noting that the actual election night result on Saturday 26 November 2011 was as follows;

National:  47.31%

Labour: 27.48%

Greens: 11.06%

NZ First: 6.59%

No other Party breached the 5% threshold.

At 34% current polling (by Colmar Brunton), this is still 6.52 percentage points above the 2011 election night results. Not a bad starting point to go into an election.

But 51% for National? Not in the realm of possibility. That is the polling they started from in February 2011 – and still they finished at 47.31%.

Let the campaigning continue.

.

*

.

References

TVNZ:  National’s popularity falls, but no party near it – Colmar Poll

Colmar Brunton: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 15-19 February 2014

Colmar Brunton: ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 15 – 19 February 2014 Report (Pdf)

Wikipedia: New Zealand general election, 2011

TVNZ: Surge in support for National – poll

.

*

.

Labour Mana Green

Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen

.

.

= fs =

Advertisements

2011 Party Lists

8 September 2011 4 comments

2011 Party Lists:

– Act

– Green Party

– Labour

– Mana Party

– National

– NZ First

– United Future

ACT Party

Announced: 28 August 2011

1. Dr Don Brash
2. Catherine Isaac (replaces John Boscawen)
3. Don Nicolson
4. Hon John Banks
5. David Seymour
6. Chris Simmons
7. Stephen Whittington
8.  Kath McCabe
9. Robyn Stent
10.  John Thompson
11.  John Ormond
12.  Lyn Murphy
13.  Kevin Moratti
14.  Robin Grieve
15.  Pratima Nand
16.  Dominic Costello
17.  Toni Severen
18.  Richard Evans
19.  Ian Cummings
20.  Gareth Veale
21.  Toby Hutton
22.  Dan Stratton
23.  Robert Burnside
24.   Hayden Fitzgerald
25.   Alex Spiers
26.   Peter McCaffrey

|

|

|

Green Party

Announced: 29 May 2011

1.  Metiria Turei
2.  Russel Norman
3.  Kevin Hague
4.  Catherine Delahunty
5.  Kennedy Graham
6.  Eugenie Sage
7.  Gareth Hughes
8.  David Clendon
9.  Jan Logie
10.  Steffan Browning
11.  Denise Roche
12.  Holly Walker
13.  Julie Anne Genter
14.  Mojo Mathers
15.  James Shaw
16.  David Hay
17.  Richard Leckinger
18.  Aaryn Barlow
19.  Jeanette Elley
20.  Sea Rotmann
21.  Michael Gilchrist
22.  Dora Langsbury
23.  David Kennedy
24.  Tane Woodley
25.  Joseph Burston
26.  Mikaere Curtis
27.  Shane Gallagher
28.  Saffron Toms
29.  Steve Tollestrup
30.  Jack McDonald

|

|

|

Labour Party

Announced: 10 April 2011

1. Phil Goff
2. Annette King
3. David Cunliffe
4. David Parker
5. Ruth Dyson
6. Parekura Horomia
7. Maryan Street
8. Clayton Cosgrove
9. Trevor Mallard
10. Sue Moroney
11. Charles Chauvel
12. Nanaia Mahuta
13. Jacinda Ardern
14. Grant Robertson
15. Andrew Little
16. Shane Jones
17. Su’a William Sio
18. Darien Fenton
19. Moana Mackey
20. Rajen Prasad
21. Raymond Huo
22. Carol Beaumont
23. Kelvin Davis
24. Carmel Sepuloni
25. Rick Barker
26. Deborah Mahuta-Coyle
27. Stuart Nash
28. Clare Curran
29. Brendon Burns
30. Chris Hipkins
31. David Shearer
32. Michael Wood
33. Phil Twyford
34. Stephanie (Steve) Chadwick
35. Kate Sutton
36. Jerome Mika
37. Iain Lees-Galloway
38. Josie Pagani
39. Lynette Stewart
40. Jordan Carter
41. Kris Faafoi
42. Christine Rose
43. Glenda Alexander
44. Susan Zhu
45. Rino Tirikatene
46. Sehai Orgad
47. Megan Woods
48. Mea’ole Keil
49. David Clark
50. Richard Hills
51. Anahila Suisuiki
52. Hamish McDouall
53. Louis Te Kani
54. Tat Loo
55. Soraya Peke-Mason
56. Julian Blanchard
57. Peter Foster
58. Pat Newman
59. Julia Haydon-Carr
60. Michael Bott
61. Vivienne Goldsmith
62. Nick Bakulich
63. Chris Yoo
64. Barry Monks
65. Hugh Kininmonth
66. Jo Kim
67. Paula Gillon
68. Carol Devoy-Heena

|

|

|

Mana Party

Announced: 1 November 2011

  1. Hone Harawira
  2. Annette Sykes
  3. John Minto
  4. Sue Bradford
  5. Misty Harrison
  6. James Papali’i
  7. Tawhai McClutchie
  8. Angeline Greensill
  9. Jayson Gardiner
  10. Dr Richard S Cooper
  11. Dr Peter Cleave
  12. Val Irwin
  13. Sharon Stevens
  14. Keriana Reedy
  15. Pat O’Dea
  16. Roderick Paul
  17. Grant Rogers
  18. Nguha Patuwai
  19. Barry Tumai
  20. Ngawai Herewini

|

|

|

Maori Party

Announced:29 October 2011

1. Waihoroi Shortland
2. Kaapua Smith
3. Wheturangi Walsh-Tapiata
4. Tina Porou
5. Awanui Black
6. Davina Murray
7. Tariana Turia
8. Pita Sharples
9. Te Ururoa Flavell
10. Josie Peita
11. Paora Te Hurihanganui
12. Fallyn Flavell
13. Daryl Christie
14. Tom Phillips
15. Tim Morrison
16. Tamai Nicholson
17. Aroha Rickus

|

|

|

National Party

Announced: 4 September 2011

1.    John Key (1)
2.    Bill English (2)
3.    Lockwood Smith (12)
4.    Gerry Brownlee (3)
5.    Tony Ryall (6)
6.    Nick Smith (5)
7.    Judith Collins (7)
8.   Anne Tolley (10)
9.    Chris Finlayson (14)
10.    David Carter (9)
11.    Murray McCully (11)
12.    Tim Groser (15)
13.    Steven Joyce (16)
14.    Paula Bennett (41)
15.    Phil Heatley (22)
16.    Jonathan Coleman (29)
17.    Kate Wilkinson (30)
18.    Hekia Parata (36)
19.    Maurice Williamson (8)
20.    Nathan Guy (18)
21.    Craig Foss (33)
22.    Chris Tremain (31)
23.    Jo Goodhew (39)
24.    Lindsay Tisch (19)
25.    Eric Roy (28)
26.    Paul Hutchison (23)
27.    Shane Ardern (24)
28.   Amy Adams (52)
29.    Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga (35)
30.    Simon Bridges (51)
31.    Michael Woodhouse (49)
32.    Chester Borrows (32)
33.    Nikki Kaye (57)
34.    Melissa Lee (37)
35.    Kanwaljit Bakshi (38)
36.    Jian Yang (-)
37.    Alfred Ngaro (-)
38.    Katrina Shanks (46)
39.    Paul Goldsmith (-)
40.    Tau Henare (26)
41.    Jacqui Dean (40)
42.    Nicky Wagner (43)
43.    Chris Auchinvole (42)
44.    Louise Upston (53)
45.    Jonathan Young (66)
46.    Jackie Blue (45)
47.    Todd McClay (54)
48.    Alan Peachey (34)
49.    David Bennett (44)
50.    Tim Macindoe (55)
51.    Cam Calder (58)
52.    John Hayes (50)
53.    Colin King (47)
54.    Aaron Gilmore (56)
55.    Jami-Lee Ross (-)
56.    Paul Quinn (48)
57.    Paul Foster-Bell (-)
58.    Maggie Barry (-)
59.    Ian McKelvie (-)
60.    Mark Mitchell (-)
61.    Mike Sabin (-)
62.    Scott Simpson (-)
63.    Claudette Hauiti (-)
64.    Joanne Hayes (-)
65.    Leonie Hapeta (-)
66.    Sam Collins (-)
67.    Jonathan Fletcher (-)
68.   Heather Tanner (-)
69.    Denise Krum (-)
70.    Carolyn O’Fallon (-)
71.    Viv Gurrey (71)
72.    Karen Rolleston (-)

|

|

|

New Zealand First

Announced 12 November 2011

1.          PETERS, Winston
2.          MARTIN, Tracey    Rodney
3.          WILLIAMS, Andrew  North Shore
4.          PROSSER,  Richard Waimakariri
5.          STEWART Barbara   Waikato
6.          HORAN, Brendan    Tauranga
7.          O’ROURKE, Denis   Port Hills
8.          TAYLOR, Asenati   Manukau East
9.          MULFORD, Helen    Pakuranga
10.         BARR, Hugh  Ohariu
11.         TABUTEAU, Fletcher Rotorua
12.         PARAONE, Pita     Whangarei
13.         CATCHPOLE, Brent  Papakura
14.         CRAVEN, Ben Wellington Central
15.         HO, Jerry   Maungakiekie
16.         GUDGEON, Bill     Hamilton West
17.         GARDENER, Kevin   Nelson
18.         DOLMAN, Ray BOP
19.         SCOTT, David      Otaki
20.         RATANA, Randall   Dunedin Sth
21.         BINDRA, Mahesh    Mt Roskill
22.         PERRY, Edwin      Taupo
23.         JELLEY, Dion      Northcote
24.         HALL, John  Manurewa
25.         STONE, Kevin      Coromandel
26.         NABBS, Doug Hunua
27.         PIERSON, Brent    Rongotai
28.         ILALIO, Oliva     Mangere
29.         STEWART, Gordon   Hamilton East
30.         REID, Tamati      East Coast
31.         BROUGHAM, Ian     Whanganui
32.         WOODS, Bill Selwyn
33.         DAVIES, Allen    Auckland Central

|

|

|

United Future Party

Announced: 20 October 2011

1. Peter Dunne
2. Doug Stevens
3. Rob Eaddy
4. Sultan Eusoff
5. Alan Simmons
6. Bryan Mockridge
7. Vanessa Roberts
8. Pete George
9. Ram Prakash
10. Martin Gibson
11. Clyde Graf
12. Damian Light
13. Andrew McMillan
14. Diane Brown
15. Brian Carter

MMP – the “Marketplace” of Politics…

… and offering the voters real choices, other than the gerrymandered riggings and back-room deals of First Past the Post and Supplementary Member.

The good folk of Epsom now have a wide range of candidates to choose from, this coming November.  Labour MP, David Parker, is experienced, articulate, and with a good common-sense attitude.

Spoilt for choice, Epsom folk?

Can David Parker win Epsom? Should he even try? What is the point of offering oneself in a safe National-seat that is as “blue ribbon” as one can find in this country?

I’m thinking that David Parker has a very simple plan: to Give It A Go.

New Zealanders love that  “give it a go” attitude. The same attitude that has seen various individuals achieve stuff that – on the face of it – was practically unheard off. Whether climbing a bloody big mountain and “knocking the bastard off”, or producing a few ‘splatter’ movies and eventually becoming one of the biggest Names in Hollywood (Miramar Branch) – these individuals just gave it a go.

Now it may be a long-shot that David Parker wins Epsom. That’s a bloody high mountain to climb in anyone’s books.

But Kiwis love the “battler”; the Little Guy Up Against It. Hence why “Goodbye Pork Pie” is one of our most endearing movies?

I think that’s the rationale for David P to try it on in Epsom. He may not get anywhere – but by the Flying Spaghetti Monster, I think he’ll earn bucketloads of respect from the local Epsomites. ‘Cos he Gave It A Go.

Who knows – he may even…

As for the Parker Game Plan – I’m picking he’ll opt for Deputy Leadership if/when the Labour leadership issue ever arises.

Wouldn’t it make more sense…

… if Peter Dunne just dropped the charade of being a separate Party and simply joined National?

This is really taking “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” to new heights of absurdity.