Home > The Body Politic > On course for a change of government – hold her steady!

On course for a change of government – hold her steady!

.

Red Green Up

.

The Roy Morgan poll, carried out at the end of July, was a complete reversal of National’s polling fortunes thus far;

National: 46%  (down 5%)

Labour: 30% (up 6.5%)

Greens: 12% (down 3%)

NZ First: 5% (down 1%)

Internet-Mana Party Alliance: 2.5% (up 1%)

Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)

ACT:  0.5% (unchanged)

United Future: 0.5% (unchanged).

Conservative Party:  1% (unchanged)

 

To back up that earlier poll,  TV3  released it’s own Reid Research Poll. Our entire household whooped with delight at tonight’s (17 August) results;

National: 47.5% (down 1.9%)

Labour: 29% (up 2.3%)

Greens: 13%  (up 0.6%)

NZ First: 4.6%   (up 0.3%)

Internet Mana Alliance: 2.0%  (down 0.2%)

Maori Party: 0.8%  (down 0.3%)

Act: 0.3%  (up 0.2%)

United Future: 0.2%  (no change)

Conservative Party: 2.5%  (down 0.2%)

Note;
  • Both Roy Morgan and TV3 Reid Research are very close with their results for the four main parties
  • At 47.5% the Nats are near the 47.31% they won in the 2011 election (see chart below).

.

National Labour Greens NZ First
One News Colmar Brunton [1]2 October 2011 56% 29% 9% 1.9%
3 News Reid Research [1]2 October 2011 57.4% 26.6% 9.8% 1.9%
Roy Morgan Research [1]26 September – 9 October 2011 55.5% 28% 9.5% 2%
Roy Morgan Research [1]10–23 October 2011 53.5% 29.5% 9.5% 2.5%
Herald-DigiPoll [1]20–27 October 2011 53.5% 30.3% 9.5% 2.85
Actual Election Night Result [2]26 November 2011 47.31% 27.48% 11.06% 6.59%
Fairfax/Ipsos Poll [6]17 July 2014 54.8% 24.9% 12.4% 2.6%
Herald-DigiPoll [5]20 July 2014 52% 26.5% 9.9% 4.6%
One News Colmar Brunton [4]27 July 2014 52% 28% 10% 4%
Roy Morgan [3]31 July 46% 30% 12% 5%
Election Night: Frank’s Prediction20 September 2014 44% 33% 13% 5%

.

Notice how the poll results in 2011 dropped from around 56%/57% for National to an election night figure of 47.31%? That is around a ten-percentage point drop.

Polling results for Labour were static – but the election nights results for the Greens rose by two percentage points from around 9% to their Election night win of 11.06%.

A governing party’s support will always fall during the campaign, as a contest of real ideas and campaign advertising is given equal prominence to government propaganda.

It will be interesting to see how Nicky Hager’s book, “Dirty Politics”, story will  impacts on National’s support in coming polls.

If it drops radically any further, Key may have to,

1. Sack both Collins and Ede to mollify voters,

2. Reverse his decision and do a deal with the Conservatives,

3. Go for a tax cut policy – which though grossly irresponsible, unaffordable, and will put the govt back into debt –  would buy them the election. (I predict such a  policy shift will be seen as panicking by voters, fail, and rebound badly on the Nats.)

I’ve said it for the last couple of years;

  • Expect a new government post 20 September.
  • Key is history.
  • And watch a brutal political ‘knife fight’ between Collins/Slater and Steven Joyce for the National Party leadership.

Most important, my friends,  we will have a new Prime Minister and a new government.

.

David-Cunliffe-at-2013-Labour-Party-conference-nov2013--Getty-Images_w452

.


 

References

Roy Morgan:  National (51%) increases election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (38.5%)

Wikipedia:  Election Night results: 2011

Previous related blogposts

Latest Roy Morgan Poll – the game has turned!


 

.

Vote and be the change

Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes

.

.

= fs =

Advertisements
  1. Mick
    18 August 2014 at 12:56 pm
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: