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Latest Roy Morgan Poll – the game has turned!

6 August 2014 1 comment

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Red Green Up

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Don’t let anyone tell you that the Left is headed for defeat on 20 September.

Don’t let the polls tell you that the election is done-and-dusted and Key will be settling in for a third term.

Don’t let Labour’s right-wing MPs’ shenanigans demoralise you.

Don’t let media smear campaigns and various Tory dirty tricks shake your faith.

The election campaign has only just begun, and the most recent poll – from Roy Morgan –  will be giving Key, Joyce, Brownlee, English, Collins, Bennett, etc, sleepless nights from now on.

The Roy Morgan poll, carried out at the end of July, paints a grim picture for the Nats;

National: 46%  (down 5%)

Labour: 30% (up 6.5%)

Greens: 12% (down 3%)

NZ First: 5% (down 1%)

Internet-Mana Party Alliance: 2.5% (up 1%)

Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%)

ACT:  0.5% (unchanged)

United Future: 0.5% (unchanged).

Conservative Part:  1% (unchanged)

National’s 46 percentage rating is a massive drop from the low-to-mid 50s it has been enjoying in polls up until now. Even the previous Roy Morgan poll (which is the main poll to consider as it is the only one that calls cellphones) had National on 51%.

Make no mistake about the significance on this fall; National is now polling below it’s election night result of 47.31%!

Why is this significant and ultimately so terrifying for this government?

Because if you glance to the chart below, you will see polling results for the month of October, preceding the 2011 General Election, which had National rating between 53.5% to 57.4%.

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National Labour Greens NZ First
One News Colmar Brunton [1]2 October 2011 56% 29% 9% 1.9%
3 News Reid Research [1]2 October 2011 57.4% 26.6% 9.8% 1.9%
Roy Morgan Research [1]26 September – 9 October 2011 55.5% 28% 9.5% 2%
Roy Morgan Research [1]10–23 October 2011 53.5% 29.5% 9.5% 2.5%
Herald-DigiPoll [1]20–27 October 2011 53.5% 30.3% 9.5% 2.85
Actual Election Night Result [2]26 November 2011 47.31% 27.48% 11.06% 6.59%
Fairfax/Ipsos Poll [6]17 July 2014 54.8% 24.9% 12.4% 2.6%
Herald-DigiPoll [5]20 July 2014 52% 26.5% 9.9% 4.6%
One News Colmar Brunton [4]27 July 2014 52% 28% 10% 4%
Roy Morgan [3]31 July 46% 30% 12% 5%
Election Night: Frank’s Prediction20 September 2014 44% 33% 13% 5%

 

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Yet, less than two months later, their actual election night result was far less – 47.31%.

Polling results are only approximate indicators. They are never accurate for the following reasons;

  1. They do not take into account the Undecideds/Won’t Say respondents.
  2. Undecideds become Decideds, as they firm up their decisions.
  3. People change their minds.

If National is polling mid-to-high 40s at this point in the campaign, their election night result will be even lower. My guess is around, or below,  the 45% mark.

My prediction for this year’s election night results:

National: 44% – 53 seats

Labour: 33% – 40 seats

Greens: 13% – 16 seats

NZ First: 5% – 6 seats

Mana Movement: 4 seats

Maori Party: 1 seat

ACT:  1 seat

Dunne: nil – seat loss

NZ First will try to be the “kingmaker” and my prediction is that he will coalesce with National. The Maori Party will coalesce with Labour, giving a Labour-led coalition a one seat majority.

 

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References

Roy Morgan:  National (51%) increases election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (38.5%)

Wikipedia:  Election Night results: 2011

[1] Wikipedia: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2011

[2] Election Night results: 2011

[3] Roy Morgan: National (46%) lead over Labour/ Greens (42%)

[4] One News Colmar Brunton: More poll woes for Labour as National rides high

[5] NZ Herald: National and John Key more favoured than ever for next government

[6] Fairfax/Ipsos Poll: Labour’s poll woe deepens

 

Other blogposts

The Daily Blog:  Latest Roy Morgan Poll: Labour jumps 6.5 points up to 30%, National tumble

The Standard: Latest Roy Morgan poll


 

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Lorde wants you to vote

Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes

This blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 3 August 2014

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An open message to Kelvin Davis…

6 August 2014 4 comments

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Kelvin David - facebook - Mana Internet Party- Kim Dotcom

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Kelvin is now supported by the likes of National Party apparatchik, David Farrar, and quasi-fascist muck-raker, Cameron Slater.

That alone should give Kelvin, Stuart, et al in the Labour Party pause for thought.

To Kelvin; his colleagues; and his cheerleaders, I share this insight, for free;

Why is Key so popular?

One of the reasons is that he has demonstrated a willingness and ability to work with other political parties, from neo-lib-nutcases in ACT to political prostitute Dunne, to the Maori Party.

In doing so, he has cobbled together a coalition that has lasted nearly six – six! – years.

In every campaign, neither Key nor a single other National candidate has ever slagged off one of their potential coalition allies. Not once.

What the public sees is a group of political parties working together. They may campaign on their own policies and platforms and do “deals” – but they never slag off in public.

Because Key understands the mood of the public; that people want to see our elected representatives working together, for the “good of the country”.

Now, we can disagree that National’s policies are for the “good of the country”. God knows I’ve written enough about National’s appalling governance that has left this country in a social and economic mess.

But – the public still perceives Key as being able to work with other parties. Key demonstrates collegiality every time he’s in the media.

Contrast that to the infighting between the parties on the Left.

The public are not seeing Labour going hard out to win the election; they’re seeing Labour going hard out to win votes, at any cost.

Believe me, there is a big, big difference.

That, my fellow New Zealanders, is why Labour is low in the polls.

If Labour cannot demonstrate, to the public, that it can work collegially with potential coalition allies now, prior to 20 September – then how on Earth can Labour expect the public to believe it can work with other parties, post-election?

Saying that you can “work with other parties” and then trying to destroy them at every opportunity sends only one message to the public; you’re more interested in your own success than anything else.

Not exactly a hopeful message, is it?

 

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References

Facebook: Kelvin Davis

Previous related blogposts

The secret of National’s success – revealed

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Team key - me myself  and me

Above image acknowledgment: Francis Owen/Lurch Left Memes

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