Three recent polls

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A TVNZ/Colmar Brunton Poll on 17 February must have been a joyous event for National and it’s supporters.  At 49%, it appeared to show the governing Party with increased (up 5%!) public support.

No such luck, I’m afraid, my Tory fellow New Zealanders.

Three polls this month (February, 2013)  yielded two distinctly different results.

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	Roy Morgan 13 Feb 2013	TVNZ/Colmar Brunton 17 Feb 2013	Fairfax/Ipsos Poll 20 Feb 2013
Right bloc:
National	44% (-2%)	49% (+5%)	44.9% (-1.3)
Maori Party	0.5% (-1%)	1% (n/c)	1.3% (-.01%)
ACT NZ	0.5% (n/c)	.01% (-0.5%)	.04% (+.04%)
United Future	0% (n/c)	.02% (-0.3%)	.01% (-.01%)
Left bloc:
Labour	34.5% (+3%)	33% (-2%)	36.3% (+1.9%)
Greens	13.5% (n/c)	11% (-2%)	10.7% (+.02%)
Mana Party	0.5% (n/c)	1% (n/c)	1.4% (+.08%)
Other:
NZ First	4% (-1.5%)	4% (n/c)	2.8% (-1%)
Conservative Party	2% (+1.5%)	1% (n/c)	1.6% (.02%)

n/c = no change

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Both Roy Morgan and Fairfax/Ipsos show similar, almost identical results for National; 44% and 44.9% respectively. Both also record a drop for the Nats.

Curiously, TVNZ/Colmar Brunton went against the tide, showing support rising by a massive 5%, to 49%.

That 5% rise seems utterly unlikely given the other two polls, and is way outside the “Samnpling Error” of  +/- 3.1%, according to Colmar Brunton’s own website.

So what’s going on? Which polling companies are closer to the real picture (bearing in mind that phone polling is done by calling land-lines – not cellphones, nor door to door)?

A clue might lie in the polling leading up to the 2011 general election:

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	Roy Morgan 24 Nov 2011	TVNZ/Colmar Brunton 24 Nov 2011*	Fairfax/Media Research 23 Nov 2011	2011 Election results	Closest Polling result
Right bloc:
National	49.5%	50%	54%	47.31%	Roy Morgan
Maori Party	1%	2.0%	1.1%	1.43%	Media Research
ACT NZ	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	1.07%	Media Research
United Future	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	Roy Morgan
Left bloc:
Labour	23.5%	28%	26%	27.48%	Colmar Brunton
Greens	14.5%	10%	12%	11.06%	Media Research
Mana Party	0.5%	1.0%	1.1%	1.08%	Media Research
Other:
NZ First	6.5%	4.2%	4%	6.59%	Roy Morgan
Conservative Party	n/r	2.4%	n/r	2.65%	Colmar Brunton

n/r = no result provided

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(A) Roy Morgan was closest to Election Day results with their polling for the combined National/ACT/United Future bloc at 51.5%.

Colmar-Brunton came second with their combined National/ACT/United Future bloc at 51.8%.

And Media Research came third with their combined National/ACT/United Future bloc at 54.8%

The Election Day result for the combined National/ACT/United Future bloc was 48.98%.

(B) By comparison, the results were reversed when it came to the Labour/Green/Mana bloc.

Media Research was closest with their combined result for the Labour/Green/Mana bloc at 39.1%

Colmar Brunton was again second with 39%.

And Roy Morgan came last with 38.5% for the Labour/Green/Mana bloc.

The Election Day result was 39.62%.

When it came to polling in the week leading up to the 2011 general election, all three pollsters seemed to “pick” correct results – but for different Parties.

Roy Morgan picked National, United Future, and NZ First.

Colmar Brunton picked Labour and the  Conservative Party..

And Media Research picked Maori Party , ACT,  Mana, and the Greens.

As such, for accuracy relating to National, Roy Morgan is the poll to watch.

For Labour, it is Colmar Brunton. (Which, for Colmar Brunton is supported by data here: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election)

Even well-known  right-wing commentator and National Party apparatchik, Matthew Hooton confirmed this on Monday, 18 February, when he said on  Radio NZ,

“According to that [poll], National could govern alone. Look, I find that Colmar Brunton poll has a consistant history of over-estimating National’s support, going back right through to the nineties, if not before. I don’t believe that National has more votes, more support, than it did at the time of the election. National got 47.3[%] [at] the last election. This poll gives it 49[%].”

Source: Radio NZ: Politics with Matthew Hooton and Mike Williams

Conclusion

Polls seems to be varying wildly, but Roy Morgan appears to be marginally more accurate for National, and Colmar Brunton for Labour.

Having said that, all pollsters rely heavily on landline phone-interviews. Anecdotally, fewer and fewer households (low income; students; etc) are relying on landlines and preferring instead cellphones and the internet.

Support for left-wing Parties, from low income households, may therefore be under-represented in Colmar Brunton polling. The task for the Left, though, is to motivate these housefolds to go out and  vote on Election Day.

If that can be achieved, the Kiwi flirtation with the centre-right will be at an end.

National is also vulnerable on issues relating to,

• high unemployment
• increasing job losses
• a stagnant economy
• unaffordable housing driven by investors/speculators driving up prices
• Christchurch
• asset sales
• an upcoming poll on asset sales, which could be a hard slap in John Key’s face, with hisinsistance  of having a “mandate” to partially-privatise several SOEs
• watch out for on-going problems with education, school closures, charter schools, novopay, etc
• and potential “hot spots” with environmental controversies and health-related issues

All of which will act as a slow-acting political corrosion on National’s polling.

Note 1

(*) The data for Colmar Brunton was updated on 25 February. New data obtained  was closer to Election Day results  than previous figures quoted in this blogpost, which gave an incorrect result.

Note 2

NZ First is the ‘wild card’ in this equation.

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References

Scoop: Support for National barely damaged by Tea Tapes (18 Nov 2011)

Fairfax: National still cosy in polls after tea break (23 Nov 2011)

Roy Morgan: National set for election victory, but no majority as ‘teapot tape’ scandal dents National & benefits NZ First  (24 Nov 2011)

TVNZ: Gap closes as election looms – poll (24 Nov 2011)

Wikipedia: New Zealand general election  (26 Nov 2011)

Wkipedia: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election (2011)

Roy Morgan: National (44%) lead down over Labour lead down over Labour  (34.5%) Labour, Greens, with minor parties would win election (13 Feb 2013)

TVNZ: National bounces up in poll (17 Feb 2013)

Colmar Brunton: Current One News Colmar Brunton Poll

Fairfax media: National no longer a sure winner – poll (20 Feb 2013)

Other blogs

The Dim Post: My theory about what’s happening in the polls

Brian Edwards: John Key on 41%, David Shearer on 10%. That can’t be right. Can it?

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