Archive

Archive for 19 March 2012

National – The End is Nigh

19 March 2012 6 comments

|

|

This recent Roy Morgan poll in the ‘Dominion Post‘ caught my eye,

|

Source

|

At first glance, the Fairfax report sounds like good news for National and terribly bad news for Labour.

On closer analysis, nothing could be further from the truth. The story is mostly ‘spin’ – a somewhat disingenous attempt to paint the poll results in a good light. National’s own Party strategists will be viewing that poll with considerable dismay.

Here’s why…

A corresponding poll by Roy Morgan in March last year, had National on 52.5% and Labour on 32.5%,

|

|

Comparing March 2011 with March 2012, we see the following results:

|

2011 Poll Result

2012 Poll Result

+/-

National

52.5%

48.5%

– 4%

Labour

32.5%

30%

– 2.5%

|

Both parties have actually dropped – not risen – as the Fairfax story claims.

Then we compare the Roy Morgan results with last year’s  election results, and the figures become even more interesting,

|

March 2011 Poll Result

November Election

March 2012 Poll Result

National

52.5%

47.31%

48.5%

Labour

32.5%

27.48%

30%

|

Now let’s factor in the pre-election polling results from Roy Morgan, in the week prior to the November 26 general election,

|

March 2011 Poll Result

Pre-Election 2011 Morgan Poll

November 2011 Election

March 2012 Poll Result

National

52.5%

49.5%

47.31%

48.5%

Labour

32.5%

23.5 %

27.48%

30%

|

Now a clearer picture emerges and nothing could be further from the truth with regards to the Fairfax report. As the polling – and the General Election results – amply illustrates, National is heading down, steadying currently at 47-48%. (And expect further falls.)

Conversely, Labour dipped from a March 2011 high of 32.5% to 23.5%, and is now climbing again.

More importantly – and this is the point that will be unsettling for National’s party strategists – a year ago,  National went into the 2011 general election from a high of 52.5%. (Other polls had National even higher at 55%-plus.) From that high, as campaigning by other parties offered alternatives to voters,  National shed some support, and their final end-result was 47.1% – a drop of of 5.19%.

If – as is likely – polling patterns are the same in the next couple of years,    a change of government in 2014 is inevitable.

My advice to David Shearer;

  • Get your party policy sorted, asap.
  • Get your party restructuring sorted, asap.
  • Treat other Opposition parties as your coalition partners and with respect. Form a broad Front. This will be the new reality, and if you can show that opposition parties can work together, the public will take notice.
  • Get a (new?)  speech writer – someone who has a flair with words, ideas,  and understands what is required to spark the public’s imagination. Yes, people want policy. But more than that, they want hope and a vision. JFK had it by the truckload.
  • Lastly, and most important;  act as the Prime Minister-in-Waiting that you are. Treat National as an Opposition-In-Waiting, and dismiss their policies accordingly. In fact, don’t be shy in stating boldlly that National’s policies are temporary; have a Use-By date; and Labour will review them.

This is what National has to look forward to in the next couple of years,

|

|

Labour is now a government-in-waiting.

|

|

= fs =

Advertisements

A music moment

 

|

|

= fs =

Categories: On A Lighter Note Tags: