Home > The Body Politic > Election Eleven – Saturday

Election Eleven – Saturday

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Election Eleven – Saturday

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National has won the election, and, seemingly increased it’s Party vote from 44% to 48%.

Despite running a policy-based campaign based on important issues, Labour has suffered a major setback.

The Greens, meanwhile, have done stunningly well.

And Winston Peters was the sole beneficiary of the  “cuppa tea” meeting in Epsom.

Some initial observations…

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ACT

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The “cuppa tea” meeting between the Two Johns has proven to be a futile exercise. The sole gain for ACT was to return John Banks (a former National MP) to Parliament – but with no extra MPs “riding on his coat-tails”.

In effect, there was no profit for National to support ACT. National might as well not bothered and simply supported Paul Goldsmith.

ACT’s continuing existence is now at the pleasure of Dear Leader, John Key.

By 2014, ACT will most likely disappear.

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Green Party Voters – Ohariu

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Green Party members in the Ohariu electorate – you people need to learn to count and to understand the concept of tactical voting.

By giving your electorate vote to the local Green candidate, Gareth Hughes, instead of Charles Chauvel, you have allowed Peter Dunne to return to Parliament and give National an extra coalition partner.

National wishes to thank you for your assistance in returning a centre-right government to power.

Similar results have occurred in other electorates, where Green supporters voted for their Electorate candidate,  instead of voting strategically, with a Labour/Green split.

For example; Waitakere:

Paula Bennett (N): 12,310

Carmel Sepulone (L): 11,961

Steve Tollestrup (G):  1,582

1,582 wasted electorate votes for the Green candidate could have helped the Labour cadidate defeat Paula Bennett. Instead, Carmel Sepulone – a very talented Labour candidate – has lost her seat in Parliament.

Similar instances abound in other electorates.

*facepalm*

Next time, Green Voters,  ease up on the wacky-bakky before you vote.

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Asset Sales

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By voting National, New Zealanders have given National the mandate to sell state assets. That’s our assets. Or rather, they used to be our assets. Pretty shortly, they will belong to Americans, Germans, Chinese, Australians.

Congratulations, fellow New Zealanders, you’ve succeeded in giving away our best performing; most profitable publicly-owned; assets.

After our electricity companies are sold off,  wait till you get you next power bills. When power prices begin to rise, as overseas owners demand higher and higher returns on their investments, you will be reminded that we did this to ourselves. No one forced us to sell.

Aren’t we a clever bunch?

Not.

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Maori Party

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Pita Sharples has stated that the Maori Party will oppose asset sales as National’s coalition partner.

Oh dear lord…

Sharples needs to look at the rules of Supply & Confidence. Specifically, if National makes asset sales a part of their budget; and the Maori Party votes down that budget; they will have denied the National-led government Supply, which in turn will force a snap election.

Does the Maori Party want to force a snap election and suffer the wrath of the voting public?

Do they want to risk electoral annihilation at the hands of annoyed voters? I doubt it.

Checkmate.

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Horizon Polling

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The biggest loser of the night, few will take Horizon Polling seriously after tonight’s election results.

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MMP

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The BIG winner of the night; New Zealanders have voted to retain MMP. This was due in part to “Vote for Change” mounting the most pathetic, incompetant, and and mostly invisible campaign in this country’s history.

And Jordan Williams had the cheek to blame the media for “not having a debate” on the issue?

Jordan Williams needs to take responsibility for his Claytons-campaign. Blaming the media  may work for Winston Peters – but coming from others, it is not a good look.

MMP won because,

  • It is relatively  simple to understand,
  • The alternatives were unfair; unworkable; or hellishly  complex to understand,
  • New Zealanders simply didn’t feel inclined to change.

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Labour

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Was this a defeat for Labour?

No. I see it as a postponement of a victory.

In the next three years, as National’s policies really start to bite low and middle income earners, and those at the top increase their wealth, Labour’s time will come in 2014 (if not earlier – see Maori Party above).

I am picking a snap election in a years’ time, or mid-term.

And this time, National will lose.

As for Phil Goff – I hope he doesn’t step down. I think he’s actually grown in stature over the last few weeks. He won two of the three Leader’s Debates handsomely, and is able to pin down John Key on issues.

With the media/Key honeymoon well and truly over, Goff now has a chance to show up National’s weaknesses to the public.

The campaign for the next election starts on Monday.

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Additional

Post mortem #1: Green Voters in Electorates

Post mortem #2: Phil Goff

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  1. Matthew
    27 November 2011 at 12:01 am

    Not Darren Hughes. It’s Gareth Hughes.

    My take on it:
    http://wellingtoncycleways.wordpress.com/2011/11/26/still-under-mediocrity-rule/

    All polls were crap.

  2. 27 November 2011 at 12:11 am

    Matthew :

    Not Darren Hughes. It’s Gareth Hughes.

    My take on it:
    http://wellingtoncycleways.wordpress.com/2011/11/26/still-under-mediocrity-rule/

    All polls were crap.

    My bad. Will correct it now. (That’ll teach me to blog after having a triple whisky… )

  3. 27 November 2011 at 12:15 am

    Matthew :

    Not Darren Hughes. It’s Gareth Hughes.

    My take on it:
    http://wellingtoncycleways.wordpress.com/2011/11/26/still-under-mediocrity-rule/

    All polls were crap.

    Well written, Mathew. Concise and spot-on.

  4. Andrew
    27 November 2011 at 9:10 am

    Well, written blog! It says Gareth Hughes not Darren Hughes so I’m not sure what that is relating too! Lets hope there is a snap election but I doubt it! Has there ever been one that early? There were a number of other areas that Greens should have voted more tactically too, for example in the Central Auckland area. Unfortunately a lot of people don’t know how the system works and I don’t just mean the green voters. What I don’t understand is how can you vote for a Labour Candidate in your area and then vote National for your Party vote that doesn’t make sense at all. People are blinded by Keyruption is all I can say to that.

  5. 27 November 2011 at 9:45 am

    Andrew :

    Well, written blog! It says Gareth Hughes not Darren Hughes so I’m not sure what that is relating too! Lets hope there is a snap election but I doubt it! Has there ever been one that early? There were a number of other areas that Greens should have voted more tactically too, for example in the Central Auckland area. Unfortunately a lot of people don’t know how the system works and I don’t just mean the green voters. What I don’t understand is how can you vote for a Labour Candidate in your area and then vote National for your Party vote that doesn’t make sense at all. People are blinded by Keyruption is all I can say to that.

    Thanks, Andrew.

    Re, the Gareth/Darren thing; last night I transposed Darren’s name with Gareth’s. Mathew kindly pointed out my ‘blue’ and I corrected it.

    Re, tactical voting by Green voters; I was kinda surprised at how poorly Green supporters grasped the need for voting more astutely with their Party and Electorate votes. This is something the Green Party needs to address, if it’s not going to cannibalise Labour votes for no real gain, and with unintended consequences that support the Tories.

    Re, voters splitting their votes and supporting both Labour and National; as an example, a local tradesman told me yesterday that he voted for the local Labour candidate because he was a good elecorate MP – but reluctantly voted National with his Party vote. And it was a reluctant vote for National – he was not very enthusiastic about National’s performance thus far.

  6. Red
    27 November 2011 at 12:20 pm

    I am so so so hacked of!

  7. Gem
    27 November 2011 at 1:25 pm

    I think the worse thing Phil Goff could do now is resign. Unfortunately, it seems inevitable. Let’s see Goff’s replacement try (and fail) to do much better in a media environment populated by John Key cheerleaders.

    Then again, I’d understand totally if Goff bailed. If I had been the Labour party’s sacrificial lamb for the last three years, I would want to leave, too.

    I think it’s fantastic that Winston did so well, after having been sidelined by the media.

    The Greens should be applauded. As a side note, if Mojo Mathers gets in on the specials, the profile of New Zealand Sign Language (an official language as of 2006) will be raised.

    Here is my take on a couple of aspects of the election: http://writical.blogspot.com/2011/11/loneliness-of-phil-goff.html

    • 27 November 2011 at 1:46 pm

      I read your piece on your blog, Gem. Beautifully written and with great sensitivity.

      Thank you. 🙂

  8. Gosman
    27 November 2011 at 4:16 pm

    “I see it as a postponement of a victory.”

    Yes. Just as the French result in the RWC final wasn’t a defeat, just a postponement of a victory.

    “I am picking a snap election in a years’ time, or mid-term.”

    Ummmm… on what basis do you make this assessment? National has enough support to govern and has shown no indication in the past other than going a full term. Given you polictical assessments to date I would put to my weight on this prediction.

    Good to see you finally acknowledge the Horizon poll’s methodology was suspect. However you were advised that the poll was likely suspect on a number of occassions yet you chose to turn a blind eye. Understandably you did so from a hope that more people agreed with your position than the traditional polls indicated but it still showed up your lack of impartial analytical skills.

    Well at least the result gives you an excuse to pump out more of your opinions about why the Government is so terribly wrong and why only the left of the political spectrum has the answers to all of life’s ills. So look on the bright side 😉

    • 27 November 2011 at 4:35 pm

      “I am picking a snap election in a years’ time, or mid-term.”

      Ummmm… on what basis do you make this assessment?”

      On the basis you haven’t bothered to read what I’ve written – or else you wouldn’t ask a question that is already answered above.

      • Gosman
        28 November 2011 at 6:25 am

        Sorry I missed your analysis of the Maori party where you mention your fantasy land scenario where the Maori party somehow decides to bring down the Government on a specific policy that the National party campaigned on. However currently National has enough votes not to have to worry about whether the Maori party votes for them or not.

        Regardless of this is the fact that countries like Australia and UK are managing coalition politics reasonably well. National is in a much stronger position than the two main parties in these places so it isn’t really likely your scenario will become reality.

  9. Deborah Kean
    27 November 2011 at 5:46 pm

    I am so angry with the Greens that I could spit! At the very least they were thoughtless and stupid and at worst, they were selfish and power hungry. 😦

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