Home > On A Lighter Note, The Body Politic > Someone at Fairfax can’t count?!

Someone at Fairfax can’t count?!

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A recent poll conducted by Fairfax, and published in their stable of newspapers recently had the following results,

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Full Story

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The only thing is…

As pointed out by one of our correspondents, Mathew, the numbers above add up to… 114.3% !? When it comes to percentages, generally speaking they should add up to 100%. (Don’t ask why – it’s just the way the Universe was constructed.)

Thank you, Mathew, for pointing this out.

You’ve just succeeded in making Fairfax Media look like prime  twats.

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  1. Gosman
    11 November 2011 at 6:53 am

    Ummmmm….. I think you will find the undecided number is separate from the percentages quoted for party support. That is standard practice in most polls.

    You can work out the correct figures yourself if you so desire. Take the undecided figure away from 100 and you get 85.7% decided. National has 52.5% of this and Labour only 25.9% (Jeeze that is low isn’t it?). This is equivalent to around 45% and 22% respectively for the two main parties.

    So does that make you feel any better?

  2. Gosman
    11 November 2011 at 6:55 am

    When I stated correct that doesn’t mean the other figures are incorrect. They are still valid and are what most polling percentages are based on other than the Horizon poll which the left likes bigging up.

  3. Matthew
    11 November 2011 at 7:21 am

    It’s a huge assumption to assume the 14.3% is going to vote the same as the (other very few) people polled said.

    It’s another source of error.

    Statistical errors + systematic error + huge assumptions about the undecided + huge assumptions about turnout and the numbers are so unreliable as to not bother reporting them.

    Toxic Gosman you have an amazing amount of faith in unreliable numbers. That adds up to wishful thinking.

    • Gosman
      11 November 2011 at 7:38 am

      Matthew. The way these polls have been constructed hasn’t changed very much at all over the years. When you compare the poll results to actual results over the past few elections, (as Devid Farrar over at Kiwiblog has done http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/11/poll_accuracy.html), you notice that the difference is not that much. Certainly well withing the margin of error of most of the polls.

  4. Tom Sawyer
    11 November 2011 at 11:19 am

    114%??? ROFLMAO!

  5. Tom Sawyer
    11 November 2011 at 11:20 am

    Gosman :

    Matthew. The way these polls have been constructed hasn’t changed very much at all over the years. When you compare the poll results to actual results over the past few elections, (as Devid Farrar over at Kiwiblog has done http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/11/poll_accuracy.html), you notice that the difference is not that much. Certainly well withing the margin of error of most of the polls.

    You can’t be too happy at the latest digipoll National down at 49%!

    • Gosman
      11 November 2011 at 11:46 am

      Why wouldn’t I be happy with that? The Right of the spectrum still have more than enough support to govern and Labour and the Green’s are down.

  6. Red
    11 November 2011 at 12:18 pm

    Oh dear I wonder if all the official polls are as dodgy?

  7. 11 November 2011 at 2:03 pm

    Astounding! You need to publish this wherever you can Mr Kent

  8. Gosman
    11 November 2011 at 2:37 pm

    Astounding!

    That people on the left of the political spectrum can be so ignorant about political polls.

    By the way Red. Why did you vote National once? What was it about their policies that attracted you to them?

    • Matthew
      11 November 2011 at 2:40 pm

      It is you Gosman who has a poor understanding of the errors involved.

  9. fmacskasy
    13 November 2011 at 8:13 pm

    Gosman :

    Astounding!

    That people on the left of the political spectrum can be so ignorant about political polls.

    By the way Red. Why did you vote National once? What was it about their policies that attracted you to them?

    Well, Gosman, as was pointed out to you elsewhere, polls generally add up to 100% – not 114.3%. And you can’t suggest that the “Undecideds” was a separate figure. If you look at the diagramme above, all eleven figures are lumped together.

    Fairfax has cocked up, whichever way you look at it.

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