Home > The Body Politic > John Key’s foot-in-mouth syndrome

John Key’s foot-in-mouth syndrome

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In Parliament last week (4 October), John Key quoted a mysterious, anonymous, “email” which he daid  “inferred”  that, “when Standard and Poor’s was giving a meeting in New Zealand about a month ago, what it did say was that there was about a 30 percent chance that we would be downgraded. That is what happens when one is on a negative outlook. It did go on to say, though, that if there was a change of Government, that downgrade would be much more likely.”

However, a quick glance at the official government website, the NZ Debt Management Office not only doesn’t support that claim – but actually shows the reverse: Labour  actually RATES BETTER than National/Rogernomics governments.

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[Click on image for full size version]

Source

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Note that three credit downgrades happened duting three National governments; 1991, 1998, and this year. And if you include the Rogernomics period – that makes FOUR neo-liberal governments that were downgraded.

Do credit ratings agencies  seem “risk averse” to new right governments? Do they prefer centre-left governments?

First, look at 10 September 1998 (National government) – AA+ (negative outlook)

But when Labour came to power – 7 March 2001 – AA+ (stable outlook)

Stable outlook?!

Nah, must be a mistake. Let’s have another look at a following period…

6 August 2008  (Labour Government) – AA+ (stable outlook) re-affirmed

“Reaffirmed”?!

Well, bugger me! It  rather does seem that credit agencies look favourably upon  centre-left government policies rather than centre-right administrations.

Whoda thunk?!

John Key – wrong again. It’s rather getting to be a habit with the ‘infallible’ Dear Leader.

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Reference Sources

Hansards – 1. Credit Rating Downgrade—Effect on New Zealand Economy

NZDMO – New Zealand Sovereign Credit Ratings

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  1. Deborah Kean
    16 October 2011 at 3:57 pm

    Very interesting!

  1. 19 September 2015 at 8:01 am

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