Archive for 8 October 2011

Who’s been ACTing up?

8 October 2011 1 comment

In the news just recently,


Full Story


In a blow to the party and Don Brash’s leadership, TV3 current affairs show The Nation will reveal details of a leaked poll that shows John Banks will not win in Epsom if National is polling more than 50 per cent nationwide and does not need ACT’s support.

“Leaked poll”?!

Now who would have done such a thing?

The polling was conducted by right-wing blogger and National Party activist, David Farrar.

The poll was then delivered to the National Party official responsible for receiving such material, ‘Mr/Ms X’.

So the question is; was it leaked from the originator of the poll (Farrar), or the National Party client (‘Mr/Ms X’)?

There are no other possibilities. It is doubtful anyone else could have gained access to this information.

Next question; what would have been the motivation for leaking such a poll? If it had been to simply destroy ACT’s chances in Epsom, then the poll would simply have contained low-polling results  for the ACT candidate, John Banks.

That would have sent a clear signal to Epsom National voters not to waste their electorate vote on Banks, but to vote for the National candidate, Paul Goldsmith.

But, if it is correct that “apparently, Farrar asked a three scenario question: would you vote for Banks if a) National was polling over 50% (ie able to govern out-right), b) if National was polling at 47.5% (on the cusp of governing alone), c) if National was polling 45% (needing a partner to govern)” – source – then the rational becomes completely different.

In this case, what we have here is a cunningly-disguised, further instructions to  Epsom National voters. The instructions are  for Epsomites to vote to Banks or Goldsmith depending on local polling.

Personally, I think a flow chart to “assist” Epsom voters might be jolly useful,