Labour to win in 2014 – does the media know?
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TV1/Colmar Brunton’s recent(4 November) poll yields some interesting results and points to a conclusion that the author of the article has missed.
The results of the recent poll are,
National: 45%
ACT: 1 seat (highly unlikely)
United Future: 1 seat (possibly)
Maori Party: 3 seats (???)
Labour: 32%
Greens: 12%
NZ First: 4.9% (5% rounded up)
Mana: 1 seat (likely)
TV1′s analysis and conclusions are,
” The latest numbers mean National would have enough votes to form a coalition.
National would get 58 seats, add three from the Maori Party and one each from Act and United Future and the centre-right would have a majority of 63.
The opposition would have just 41 seats from Labour plus 16 from the Greens and one from Mana.”
Source: Ibid
I see no rationale as to how he author of that article can predict an outcome that “The latest numbers mean National would have enough votes to form a coalition“.
There are at least four unknown variables present in the above data,
- NZ First’s 4.9% could easily become 5%, thereby passing them over the threshold. If National legislates to reduce the Party threshold from 5% to 4%, that automatically translates into seats with this poll.
- ACT’s John Banks is unlikely to retain his seat.
- Without polling the three Maori Party electorates Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru, Waiāriki, there is no telling how many seats the Maori Party are likely to win. Neither is their preference to coalesce with National a foregone conclusion.
- Ditto for the Mana Party.
Taking more certainly from the following data, a National-led coalition is less than likely, and shows a consistant preference for a Labour-led coalition government,
National: 45%
United Future: 1 seat (possibly)
Maori Party: 3 seats (???)
Total National-led coalition: 45% plus up to 4 seats
Labour: 32%
Greens: 12%
NZ First: 4.9% (5% rounded up)
Mana: 1 seat (likely)
Total Labour-Greens-NZF Bloc: 49% plus 1 seat
Perhaps the most telling aspect of this poll is Key’s personal rating.
A 2009 UMR Poll had John Key at the stratospheric approval ratings
“In 2008, JohnKey’s favourability rating (‘very favourable’ or ‘somewhat favourable’) was consistently in the mid 60’s, however he started 2009 on a high when this jumped to 75%. His ratings were in the high 70’s throughout most of the year, with a couple of peaks of 80% and 81% in June and October respectively. No other politician, in a series dating back to 1996, has recorded a favourability rating as high.”
See: UMR Mood of the Nation Dec 2009
By 5 November 2011, Key’s popularity – though still high – was beginning to drop,
“In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, John Key is well ahead of any other rival for business voters, with 69% support.”
See: National a Sure Thing for Business Voters
A year later, Key’s popularity has plummetted,
“John Key’s popularity has been slowly dropping away since the election but 42% still want him as Prime Minister.”
The interesting point here is that more respondents support National (45%) than they do John Key (42%).
This indicates that the scandals; the untenable support for John Banks; the lack of growth in jobs, despite big promises in 2008 and 2011; embarrassingPrime Ministerial faux pas; unpopular policies; an impression he no longer wants to be Prime Minister; and other bad stories, have eaten away at Key’s image like some political ‘necrotizing fasciitis’.
Any impression that he is the ‘Teflon Man‘ is long gone. Bad, smelly stuff is sticking to him, and the public perception of Key is that of someone who isfailing to meet expectations; break promises; and ducks responsibility on major issues. He is not just seen as evasive on contentious matters, but is developing a reputation for witholding the truth; using memory loss as a convenient excuse; and the suspicion that he is telling outright lies.
National’s public support continues to fall, and the outcome in the next election will most likely be a new government.
Addendum
Interestingly, the same UMR Poll ranks the top five respected professions as nurses, doctors, teachers, police, and dairy farmers. The bottom five are bankers, politicians, share brokers, investment bankers, and real estate agents.
Real estate agents rate below politicians?!
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Sources:
UMR Mood of the Nation Dec 2009
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What about a politician who used to be an investment banker? Where does that combination fit on the respected professions list?
It’s a shame UMR didn’t ask that question, Allan. The response might’ve been… illuminating.
It’s noteworthy that respondents to a Fairfax poll had something very interesting about Key’s credibility last year… http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/election-2011/5939226/John-Key-Safe-hands-forked-tongue?
Isn’t Winston Peters retiring, and with it all the NZF hangers-on wouldn’t get re-elected? After witnessing a booth count at the last election, the NZF party voters were all over the place with their electorate choices (I had a feeling they’re all just a little bit mad) but they were probably flowing a little stronger to the National guy, but they also went to Labour and to the Greens. And a surprising number of those Maori Party party voters on the Maori roll went to National as well. Why I have no idea.
And even if they did manage to get some candidates elected then is there any guarantee that NZF would line up with Labour and the Greens anyway? Their politics is a little all over the place. I have no real idea what they are for.
P.S. I find John Key not willing to confirm or deny that he called David Beckham as thick as batshit gutless. He said something stupid and he has to front up for it. Mr Key should say “I said something mean about Mr Beckham. It was uncalled for, and I am a bit of a dick for saying it” and then offer an apology to Mr Beckham, publicly, privately, or preferably both. He’s looking anything but prime ministerial by pretending he’s not a dick, not that I ever have thought John Key was up to the job.
Yes, Frank, you’re right. That’s wishful thinking on the part of One News.
In short, the Nats have not gained overall. Labour’s slippage has gone to other parties, which are not mentioned.
News outlets like simple, two-horse races, so they can create oppositional conflict. So the MSM seldom or grudgingly mentions support for third party or alternative parties, unless compelled to.
The only thing I would add is, Mana will probably eat the Maori Party’s lunch in a surprise outcome. That means Mana may pick up as many as 3 seats, if it can capitalise on public sentiment.
Hone is playing his cards well now. His recent arrest didn’t harm him at all. If anything, it helped him immensely. I was there that night, and I filmed it. He’s well and truly in the fight.
Thought provoking. I predict the Maori party will get two seats only. On the other hand I’m not 100% sure Epsom will ever abandon Banks. It’s great that more people are beginning to see Key for what he is, though!
Linda, I concur; Maori Party support will go to either Labour or the Mana Party. I’m hoping Hone Harawira can pick up one or two colleagues to help him in Parliament…
I don’t think Epson really matters as the National will simply pick it up at the next election. It would only be important if Act or The Conservative Party were to win it and 3 percent providing the Right with an extra 4 seats in the House.
Good point, and ACT are never going to win 3%. Hopefully Craig couldn’t either…
I can’t help feeling this poll is a bit of an anomaly, with NZF support suddenly skyrocketing as it has. Maybe there were a few too many oldies in the sample! Much as I don’t like the Nats, I still don’t know how I feel about a Labour/Green blend needing Winston’s help to form a government…
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