Polls, Rogue Polls, and Damned Rogue Polls!
Two previous polls this month showed a slight increase for National, and a small corresponding drop for Labour,
National – 47.9% (+0.45)
Labour – 32% (-2%)
Greens – 10.7% (+1.6%)
NZ First – 5.5% (+1.1%)
ACT – Dog tucker
Source: Herad Digipoll 11 September 2012
National – 46.5% (+2%)
Labour – 31% (-1%)
Greens – 12.5% (-2%)
NZ First – 4.5% (-0.5%)
ACT – still dog tucker – with biscuits thrown in
Source: Roy Morgan 13 September 2012
Which makes a recent TVNZ/Colmar Brunton Poll somewhat odd, as it appears to break the trends shown in the above two polls,
National – 45% (-3%)
Labour – 34% (+2%)
Greens – 12.0% (n/c)
NZ First – 2.0% (-1%)
ACT – dessert, leftover humble pie
So two polls show National tracking up – and one shows the same Party dropping. Which is correct? Which is the ‘rogue poll’?
This blogger opts for the latter, the TVNZ/Colmar Brunton Poll.
With National’s recent strategy to paint Maori water claims as “greedy” and maintaining that “no one owns the water” (as opposed to coal, oil, and gas being sold to power thermal electricity generation) ; and Bennett’s relentless beneficiary-bashing proceeding at Warp Factor 9 – it is hardly surprising that the Nats are rising in the polls.
This is the same dog-whistle politics which Don Brash used during his stint as leader of
Labour Greens ACT Mickey Mouse Party the National Party (finally got the right one – hard to keep track of The Don, these days) in January 2004 during his infamous “Orewa Speech”.
The racists and low information voters loved it. Whether bashing the “lazy druggie benes” or bashing the “lazy greedy Mow-ries” – National and ACT know they can always rely on exploiting this country’s latent prejudices to secure some increased electoral support.
The Nats enjoyed a stunning 17% meteoric rise in the polls in 2004, thanks to Brash’s odious speech, that would’ve made a certain German Corporal proud.
The TVNZ/Colmar Brunton Poll is definitely rogue.
It is too early for the punters to cotton on to the fact that National Party strategists, beavering away in their little dens on the Beehive’s Ninth Floor (or basement dungeon, or where ever Key keeps his Orc-ish minions) are conning them Big Time. Diversion and distraction – the oldest game in the political book to keep the Middle Classes from realising that National is failing to rev up the economy and unemployment is on the rise.
I am reminded of playing with kitty cat with a bit of string…
It works similar with the Middle Classes. But instead of string, use bene-baiting or “standing up to dem Mow-ries“. Guaranteed to work.
This blogger still believes that we are in line for a change in government come 2014 (or earlier). Eventually, the Middle Classes tire of hearing the unemployed, solo-mums (but never solo-dads), Maori, etc, demonised and begin to realise that National has nothing positive to offer.
That is when people realise that the Emporer has no clothes. *ick*
As a side issue…
Colmar Brunton brags on its website that it “ is delighted that the One News Colmar Brunton Poll is noted as the poll that most closely predicted the 2011 election “.
According to their own data, they are nothing of the sort. In fact, Roy Morgan achieved closer Party polling than Colmar did. The closest polling figures to actual Election Night voting results are marked in red,
Colmar Brunton got four results closer to Election Night with scores for the Conservative Party, Labour, Greens, and Mana.
Roy Morgan got five scores closer to Election Night; National, ACT, United Future, Maori, and NZ First.
If you’re going to brag that you do a better job than your competitors, it might be a good idea to back it up with real evidence. (At least 50% of respondents agree with that assertion… )
Interestingly, Colmar Brunton generally got it right with the opposition parties (except for Conservatives) whilst Roy Morgan generally got it right with the government coalition parties (except for NZ First).
Previous related blogposts
As predictable as the rising sun (11 Sept)
= fs =