National in trouble? Time to dog-whistle the Middle Class!
National is in deep trouble.
Very deep trouble.
A clusterf**k of bad stories; low growth; a growing flood of New Zealanders escaping to Australia; rising unemployment; an unpopular asset sales agenda that has turned into an unholy mess; and a recent slew of massive job redundancies has left National sinking in the polls.
See previous blogpost: John Key’s “Bright New Future”
The last Roy Morgan poll had the Nats at 44.5% – now polling lower than it did last November, where it won 47.31% of the vote.
See recent blogpost: Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government
At this current rate of dropping public support, National’s electoral defeat in 2014 (if not earlier), will be more like a rout than a close-result. We may be looking at a repeat of the 2002 general election where National’s support collapsed, leaving a rump-vote of 20.93%.
A result of that magnitude would mean 32 National MPs losing their seats.
If this blogger is aware of this simple fact, then you can bet your cotton socks that National’s party strategists are on over-drive.
National’s response, every time, is to employ deflection. The above image – “National: Spin The Wheel Policy Development Process” – is not so much a funny picture as an actual strategy process.
During the last spate of bad headlines, National floated “kites” on sterilising beneficiaries and “encouraging” solo-mums (but never solo-dads) and their daughters (but never their sons) on to contraception. (The unspoken inference being that all solo-mothers – but never solo-dads – are reckless “breeders”, and ignoring problems surrounding domestic violence, substance abuse, gambling addiction, marital affairs, etc.)
More recently recently, the last dog-whistle was drug-testing the unemployed. (The inference being that all 164,000 unemployment are jobless by choice; on drugs; and unwilling to work.)
Never mind the ongoing Global Financial Crisis recession – that excuse is reserved solely for John Key and his ministerial cronies to use,
“We did inherit a pretty bad situation with the global financial crisis..” – John Key
See: View from the top
“In the midst of a very deep global downturn we expect volatility and low growth, as we are seeing around the world economies.” – Steven Joyce
“However, the government deferred the increase due to the challenging economic circumstances New Zealand was experiencing as it continued to recover from the global financial crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes.” – Gerry Brownlee
“The global economic situation is like a dark cloud on the horizon and it’s not going to go away possibly for a generation – certainly for 15 or 20 years.” – Bill English
With low polling and redundancies dominating the headlines, National has cast about for another dog-whistle to distract the easily-led Middle class.
They’ve done the unemployed and solo-mums (but never solo dads) “to death”.
Next minority on the List; Maori.
Cue: John Key’s derisory response to the upcoming nationwide hui on water rights,
“The Government does not believe there should be a national hui; does not believe there should be a national settlement and it probably would not recognise all of the rights and interests that some Maori groups believe they have.
If the Crown was to be represented at the hui, and it wont be, because we’ve said were not having a national hui, we don’t support that…if you are an MP in the government you represent the Crown and any representation by my MPs at such an event would be interpreted as representation by the Crown.
I’ve made that position absolutely crystal clear..I do not accept the view that there needs to be a national hui, because I do not accept there will be a national settlement, because I do not accept it’s a national issue.”
Almost as good as bene-bashing.
Or “get tough on crime/crush cars” rhetoric.
“Standing tough” with Maori “demands” for water rights will probably work a treat with racist rednecks and low-information voters. With the former, their racism is deeply ingrained and such ignorance can be written of like the forty-plus financial companies that sucked billions out of mums and dads investors.
With the latter, it is a matter of education and dispelling myths and prejudice, before people’s eyes eventually open and they connect-the-dots.
National will probably rebound in the polls on this strategy.
So unfortunately, Greens co-leader, Russell Norman is missing the point when he suggests that National has “blundered again” by deciding to boycott the Hui,
“For the Government to say that it won’t even attend and will actually ban its MPs from attending is the exact antithesis of good faith negotiation and is yet another blunder from this Government.”
There is no “blunder” involved here. This is naked, machiavellian politicking by National’s back-room boys.
Realistically, though, they can only use this kind of demonisation and deflection a few times before the public start to realise that they are being “played”. People wise up pretty quickly – especialy when Opposition Parties, political commentators, media, and bloggers patiently explain what the Nats are up to.
Too much Maori bashing may even force the Maori Party to make some hard decisions. Do Sharples and Turia really want to be associated with a right wing party that vilifies Maori aspirations and exploits our society’s latent racist underbelly for their own ends?
Especially when a growing perception that Sharples and Turia seem slavishly tied to National. Are they also obedient to Dear Leader John Key’s diktat that all National MPs stay away from the upcoming nationwide Hui?
Maori Party Co-leader Tariana Turia stated categorically,
“Well at this point I don’t really see the point in going.”
And Pita Sharples followed,
“We believe this is a thing that iwi/hapu have to work out themselves.”
So whistle-away, Dear Leader.
But eventually, as Abaham Lincoln pointed out,
“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”
= fs =
For a better New Zealand…
~ Cleaner rivers
~ No deep-sea oil drilling
~ Less on Roads - more on Rail
~ A Living wage at $18.40/hr
~ Marriage equality - Yay! Got that one!
~ Strong, effective Unions
~ No secret free-trade deals
~ Breakfast/lunches in our schools
~ Introducing Civics into our school curriculum
~ Cut back on the liquor industry
~ A fairer, progressive tax system
~ Fully funded, free healthcare
~ Ditto for education, including Tertiary
~ Fund Pharmac for Pompe's Disease medication & other 'orphan' drugs
~ No state asset sales!
~ Rebuild public TV broadcasting!
~ Keeping farms in local ownership
~ Reduce poverty, like we reduced the toll for road-fatalities
~ Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!
~ Being nice to each other
- Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Toru)
- I have seen one future, and it is bleak
- Guest Author: An Open Letter to John Key – Why should the PM be any different?
- 2014 – Ongoing jobless tally
- Letter to the editor – Key paints a dirty, great, big bullseye on our country!
- Letter to the editor – when a Terror Alert really was needed!
- Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Rua)
- Letter to the editor – John Key should lead by example
- Letter to the editor – Daleks, Kim Jong-un, Elvis, and Roger Douglas
- Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Tahi)
- Letter to the editor – The New Vietnam; who is first?
- Letter to the editor – The martians are coming! The martians are coming!
- 2014 Election – Post-mortem Up-date
- Letter to the editor – From a warm beach in Hawaii, With Love
- Letter to the editor – Key’s one true portfolio remains…
- Letter to the Editor – An own-goal from a particularly stupid National Supporter
- A Study in Party Stability
- Deep thought vs Deep prejudice
- Letter to the editor – “An Alarmed World” according to The Listener
- No More. The Left Falls.
- Election 2014; A Post-mortem; a Wake; and one helluva hang-over
- Letter to the editor: the culling of Cunliffe (v2)
- Letter to the editor: the culling of Cunliffe
- The Donghua Liu Affair – The Players Revealed
- She saw John Key on TV and decided to vote!
- Voting turnout affected by bad weather?
- Teflon Man No More
- It’s official: ACT’s Jamie Whyte is several-sandwiches-and-a-salad short of a picnic
- Letters to the Editor – Spies, Lies, Five Eyes, and other matters on a Sunday afternoon
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