Home > The Body Politic > Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government!

Latest Roy Morgan Poll shows change of government!

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The latest Roy Morgan poll, covering 13-26 August is out – and the news is all bad for National and it’s hangers-on. The poll, if translated to actual votes at the next election, shows a change of government is all but assured,

The results,

National – 44.5% – 54  seats

Labour – 32% – 39 seats

Greens – 14.5% – 18 seats

NZ First – 5% – 6 seats

Maori Party – assuming 3 seats retained (possible)

Mana Party – assuming 1 seat retained (likely)

Peter Dunne – assuming 1 seat retained (unlikely)

ACT – 1% – assuming Epsom lost – no seats (probable)

See:  Roy Morgan – NATIONAL (44.5%) MAINTAINS STRONG LEAD OVER LABOUR (32%)

Translated into Left-Right Blocs,

Labour-Greens-NZF-Mana: 64 seats

National-Peter Dunne-Maori Party: 58 seats

Not even close – a Labour-led coalition will form a government with a 6 seat majority.

Possible “wild cards” are,

  1. Will Winston Peters support a Labour-led government either as a formal coalition partner, or at very minimum,  guarantee Supply & Confidence?
  2. Will Colin Craig’s Conservative Party breach a new 4% Party Vote threshold (if the threshold is lowered from 5% to 4%)?
  3. If Craig’s Party cannibalises National’s support to each the 4% threshold,  any  change would be minimal to the above Left-Right Bloc numbers.
  4. If Craig’s Party cannibalises from Labour and/or NZ First, the above Left-Right Bloc numbers could be fluid.

At any rate, this blogger’s predictions that National is bleeding electoral support is borne out by poll numbers showing a definite downward trend for National.

At 44.5%, National is now polling lower than it did last November, where it won  47.31% of the vote.

It is important to note that several polls last November had National polling from 52% to 56%. The final figure of 47.31% shows that if National goes into the next election at 44.5% – they may well end up polling even lower, say around 43%. It is a ‘given’ that high-polling Parties – especially in government – suffer from attrition in support, as other Parties campaign and compete for electoral support.

As a point of interest, National has averaged 41.2% in voter support from 1996 to 2011 (inclusive).

See: Elections in New Zealand

Through implementation of dubious or outright unpopular policies, and as cuts to social and government services bite hard into communities, National is suffering a slow “death of a thousand cuts“.

Should the sale of Mighty River Power proceed, and if power prices rise next winter, expect polling to drop even further for the Nats.

To be followed by a change in government in 2014 (if not earlier).

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= fs =

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  1. 2 September 2012 at 11:20 pm | #1

    Waiata taku taringa bro. :)

  2. 3 September 2012 at 1:10 am | #2

    Good news frank, what happens if they were lower in ”polls” than labour what happens ???

  3. Murray Olsen
    3 September 2012 at 1:27 am | #3

    National might be dying the death of a thousand cuts, but it’s a real shame that none of them are inflicted by the major party in Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.

  4. Leonard Bloksberg
    3 September 2012 at 1:55 am | #4

    Since when did voters start believing Statistics NZ over National party spin. This can’t be.

  5. PJ
    3 September 2012 at 7:50 am | #5

    That looks good unless you look at this other Poll by them.

    http://tinyurl.com/yegqxxg

    Lets hope that polls wrong.

  6. 3 September 2012 at 8:48 am | #6

    only downside….. its still 2012, not 2014. They can do a lot of damage before an election is called. Lets hope Brownlee has a heart attack and a by-election is called….

    • 3 September 2012 at 10:54 am | #7

      @Kiwi 1960, laughing at your comment, hehehe i suppose everyone is hoping someone in national fort would kiel over n have a heart attack, mmmm, not likely, i’ll keep my fingers crossed n hope its a mild attack lol

  7. Theodore
    3 September 2012 at 2:26 pm | #8

    the funniest thing about that Roy Morgan poll is the heading for it,

    “Roy Morgan – NATIONAL (44.5%) MAINTAINS STRONG LEAD OVER LABOUR (32%)”

    Looking at the heading makes National look better than they really are. ROFL! I bet you the Nats are shitting themselves!

  8. Murray Olsen
    3 September 2012 at 4:37 pm | #9

    About all I’ve seen so far is some rubbish about a beneficiary painting his roof. This fits in perfectly with National’s disastrous policies.

    • 3 September 2012 at 4:41 pm | #10

      ‎@ Murray. Indeed. I’m hoping that was a bit of a “cock up”, and not a step to the right… (*cue theme to “The Time Warp” dance from Rocky Horror*). I’ve reserved judgement on that comment until we see what else comes out of Shearer’s office…

      • Murray Olsen
        3 September 2012 at 4:48 pm | #11

        The Paganis need to come out of his office and never enter it again, or we’ll see far more of these stuff ups.

  1. 4 September 2012 at 6:10 pm | #1
  2. 6 September 2012 at 7:33 pm | #2
  3. 18 September 2012 at 1:04 am | #3
  4. 14 September 2013 at 6:44 pm | #4

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