On course for a change in government…
… by 2014, if not earlier.
The latest Roy Morgan poll has National continuing to fall,
A new political poll suggests the result of an election held now would be too close to call.
The governing National Party was at 45.5 per cent support in a Roy Morgan Poll taken between June 25 and July 8, down 2 per cent on the last poll taken between June 8 and 24.
The only other parties above the 5 per cent threshold were Labour, up 0.5 per cent to 32.5 per cent, and the Greens, up 1 per cent to 13 per cent.
This put the combined total of Labour and the Greens at 45.5 per cent, the same as National, making it a tight race to decide who had the keys to the Beehive.
NZ First was up 0.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent, the Maori Party was at 1 per cent (down 0.5 per cent), while ACT, United Future and Mana were all unchanged at 0.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Roy Morgan confidence rating was unchanged at 117.5, while 51.5 per cent of New Zealanders saying the country was heading in the right direction compared to 34 per cent saying it was heading in the wrong direction.
Economic issues (52 per cent) were regarded as the most important problem facing the country, well ahead of social issues (19 per cent), Government and public policy issues (12 per cent) and environmental issues (6 per cent).
The telephone poll surveyed 1026 people.
This does not surprise me in the least.
Since National’s lurch to the right after the last election; various scandals; stagnant economy; high unemployment; unpopular dodgy deals; and even more unpopular asset sales, National has been in political free-fall.
The drop in their polling is slow and miscule – but incrementally it will be the undoing of National in power.
I’ve been preparing for a change of government since the last election. By 2014, the Nats will have dropped to around 38 – 42%. They are goneburger. The public are beginning to tire of radical right wing policies – many based on nothing more than ideology – whilst still seeing unemployment stubbornly high, and the economy stagnating.
More than that, as news of redundancies fill media stories, Middle New Zealand is now facing their greatest fear; the prospect of losing their job, and dropping down the socio-economic ladder.
More than one middle class professional has found him/herself losing their job and ending up on the dole. Only to find that the dole does not pay as much as their prejudices suggested. How often, I wonder has a recently redundant salaried professional remarked,
“$204.96!!! Is that all I get?!?! How do people live on that???”
When the realities of a recession start to get in the faces of the Middle Classes – that’s when governments change. Usually to the Left.
France, Iceland, and Mexico’s recent elections seem to indicate that voters are turning away from market-driven, centre-right parties. What the Occupy! movement could not achieve by occupation, they may be still be influencing voters and gaining victory through the ballot box.
New Zealand’s time to throw out National and replace it with a more pro-active government will soon be upon us.
The big issue is, now, is how many of our State assets can the thieving buggers flog off in the meantime?
And can Labour and David Shearer begin to present themselves with an alternative vision of something better for New Zealand as a whole?
= fs =