National – The End is Nigh (Part #Rua)
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As this blogger has been predicting over the last few months, National is continuing to slide in the polls, and will most likely face electoral defeat at the next elections.
National’s drop in popularity can be attributed to several, distinct factors,
- Economic factors continuing to worsen; rising unemployment; stagnant economy; ballooning government debt
- No obvious plan from National to create jobs and get the economy moving again
- Constant cuts which seem to achieve nothing, and which are beginning to impact of social services
- Unpopular policies such as asset sales
- A growing perception that National is demonising unemployed workers and solo-mothers, and treating them as scapegoats for government-failures
- Scandal after scandal after scandal – with the John Banks-Dotcom affair being the worst example of political pragmatism trumping ethical decision-making by Key
All of which happened in the late 1990s, with the previous Bolger/Shipley-led National governments,
See previous blogpost: Learning from history?
See previous blogpost: Learning from history?
See previous blogpost: History Lesson – Toru – Jobs
See previous blogpost: History Lesson – Rua – Police
A Roy Morgan poll released today (Friday 18 May) shows a distinct drop for National and rise for Labour.
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2011 Election Results
National: 47.31%
Labour: 27.48%
Greens: 11.06%
Mana: 1.08%
Maori Party: 1.43%
United Future: 0.60%
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Roy Morgan Poll for 2 April 2012 – 15 April 2012
National: 49.5%
Labour: 26.5%
Greens: 12.5%
NZ First: 6.5%
United Future: 1%
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Current: Roy Morgan Poll for 30 April – 13 May 2012
National: 44.5%
Labour: 30%
Greens: 15%
NZ First: 5.5%
Maori Party: 1%
Mana Party: 0.5%
ACT: 0%
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A Labour-Green-NZ First Coalition would equal 50.5%, giving 61 seats in a 120 seat Parliament (no allowance made for potential overhangs). With Hone Harawira winning Te Tai Tokerau, and giving his vote for Supply & Confidence to a Labour-led, government, a possible coalition would have a two seat majority.
This blogger believes that National will continue to trend down in further polling, and a Labour-led coalition will increase it’s majority.
Furthermore, this blogger predicts,
- ACT will not return in the next election
- Colin Craig’s Conservative Party will not break the 5% threshold
- Peter Dunne has a less than 50/50 chance of holding his Ohariu electorate if he votes with National to privatise state owned corporations
We are seeing the decline of National, and the last term of John Key as Prime Minister.
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References
NZ Herald: Key says he’ll quit politics if National loses election
NZ Herald: National support slips further – poll
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= fs =
The Maori Party MPs wouldn’t support National if National was in opposition either. And with Hone as well it’s more likely a 6 seat majority.
Dunne and Peters will probably retire sooner rather than later, and NZ First would collapse without Peters (but after scrutineering and seeing how people party and candidate vote, a lot of NZ First votes would go to National unfortunately).
Best scenario is the Conservative Party get 4.9% of the vote and all the votes get wasted.
Whatever scenario National is toast. Bring it on Mr Key.
Aside from Dunne resigning (that would require exposure to sunlight and a stake through his heart), I think your assessment has merit. The guy is a political prostitute (no offence intended to sex-workers) and would support a Labour-led government if he could worm a ministerial portfolio out of them.
I tend to agree with you about the Maori Party; if they survived they’d probably quit their relationship with National.
I wouldn’t mind Tariana Turia retaining her Associate Health portfolio, as she seems fairly committed to her anti-tobacco stance. That’s worthy of a non-partisan approach, I think (much like the crack-down on drink driving in the 1970s and ’80s.)
Colin Craig has most likely cooked his own goose with his casual homophobia and sexism. Unless the electorate forgive his faux pas? At any rate, I don’t think he’ll pick up ACT votes with his anti-asset sales policy – more likely he’ll cannibalise mostly from National and maybe NZ First.
As Dear Leader admitted, it’s going to be an interesting two and a half years (if he lasts that long -I have my doubts).
Good work Frank.
Absolutely zero about this from our favourite propagandists.
You’ll piss yourself when you see what they published as political news instead today…
http://fearfactsexposed.wordpress.com/2012/05/19/doubleplusgood/